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Friday, November 11, 2011

CCS Guesstimates - 2011

Don't forget to turn in your CCS predictions to me at by midnight tonight.  Sony MP3 player up for grabs.  For instructions, scroll down.


Anonymous said...

Why add 35-45 seconds to Pinto Lake times to match Crystal? They are both 2.95 mile courses.

Walt Van Zant said...

I analyzed the time differences for 2005 thru 2008 for the runners who ran both their league meets at Pinto and their CCS finals at Crystal or Toro with the following results –

Pinto & Crystal
2005 44.5 ave 30 sec median 35 boys
2007 15.1 ave 21 sec median 29 boys

2005 56.3 ave 45 sec median 36 grls
2007 31.8 ave 33 sec median 23 grls

Pinto & Toro
2006 44.5 ave 36 sec median 35 boys
2008 90.2 ave 91 sec median 37 boys

2006 52.9 ave 44 sec median 28 grls
2008 128.5ave 116 sec median 30 grls

When I first started making the estimates, I considered Pinto & Crystal to be the same as their distances were comparable. The result was that this completely distorted the results. So, I have been using the 2005 median differences for the years since that time. Probably, I should compute a running average and throw out the years when I know that there was a difference in weather. But, that would take a lot more time than I am willing to spend.

I have received assurances that the reported distance for Pinto is correct but I have never seen the course. And, I have not wanted to spend the time to compute the differences since 2008. Perhaps, someone else would like to do this. Weather conditions could be a factor. Obviously, the weather conditions for the league finals at Pinto & the CCS meet in 2008 must have differed drastically. My computations are labeled a guess. So, take them for whatever you think that they are worth (zero?).

Anonymous said...

Interesting. I noticed that it puts some runners behind others they have beaten in head-to-head competition. Also know that some who ran fast JV times and are on for varsity tomorrow are left out--will add to the suspense. Guess we'll see tomorrow!

Anonymous said...

Lots of runners not on the entry list raced today which threw of the "guesstimate" but in general it was very close. Walt, you are DA MAN for doing this, makes following the races and teams very fun!

One note, there is a reason the Pinto Lake at-large time is faster than the Crystal time... cuz it is!

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