Wednesday, November 23, 2011

State Meet projections by Sstoz Tes

Division I Boys
Division I Girls
Division II Boys
Division II Girls
Division III Boys
Division III Girls
Division IV Boys
Division IV Girls
Division V Boys 
Division V Girls

The above projections are based on the following course conversions:

Those are the rankings going into state.  Now it's time to race and let the feet do the talking.  Best of luck to all NorCal teams and individuals at the state meet.


Anonymous said...

Whole lotta voodoo in those numbers. Should be interesting to hold those up to the actual results...

Anonymous said...

The biggest problem with these predictions is the fact they are based only on Section meets and take no other meets into account. They are a good starting spot if someone wanted to take them and do a bit more work using some big invites and also league meets. There are many in the sections who didn't run at the top of their game because of the large leads they had. I would use Carrie Verdon as a good example even though she had a great time she wasn't pushed even a little. There were other races that went the same way. It's still pretty cool though. I wish they could have done this with a few big invites as well. The numbers are definitely fun to look at though.

Anonymous said...

I hope those results don't end up being accurate. I think SI can do a lot better than 21st, if everyone runs to their potential I think top 10 could be a definite possibility.

Anonymous said...

Granada and Amador 12th and 13th?? give me a break. I notice how both NCS D1 teams for boys and girls are lumped together at the botom of both lists. Im sick of NCS getting tossed aside without proper consideration. Anyone else notice how NCS is the ONLY section on the Dyestat 'Road to State' index that is not filled out (even though the headline says 'finished'), despite the fact that NCS has the 3rd most member schools out of every section?? NCS has some great teams and great individuals yet this section isnt given nearly as much consideration as it deserves.

Albert Caruana said...

I have to respectfully disagree that NCS does not get any coverage. If you want results, they are posted at, ncs site and If you want pictures, go to I also posted stats and pictures from the meet on this blog. Results Posted's Mike Ong took videos of all the races and you can find those at

Just because DyeStatCal or ESPN Rise didn't cover the meet doesn't mean it's not getting the recognition.

Rich Gonzalez is a one man crew covering the state and there is a reason why this site has taken off in terms of NorCal coverage.

So, if there is anything lacking about the coverage from my end, let me know.

Anonymous said...

I do feel like NCS has always been a bit of a DyeStat stepchild-that's why I so appreciate what Albert has done here. The only thing I'd like to see on this site is a forum. With all the opinions we see in comments, I think it would be pretty hoppin'...

Albert Caruana said...

A forum or message board is a great idea. There is one on the site but obviously not visited by many.

I will see what I can do.

Anonymous said...

Who is Sstoz Tes? Doesn't sound like a real name to me.

John said...

Albert, a forum is great but if you do one make sure it's registration only. No more anonymous bashing as well as the nonsense you see on

hank said...

I love the stats. Always another way to look at things. Include big invites? It's there, just give me the conversion ratio (remember, big invites are mid-season so not a real representation of someone can do at end of year so you need to factor that in to your conversion formula).

I also agree that we need a message board (without Anonymous postings), the current ESPN Rise is SoCal dominated but not even close to the popularity that existed prior to the ESPN merge (kinda took the wind out of our sails). So would be nice to bring it back, as Albert says, not many visits to the XCExpress message board (Nov 5 last post ...?):

The stats are what they are. Either run faster or give us new formulas and the computer will crank out the numbers - this is not someones opinion, these are numbers based on what runners ran and the conversion formulas are based on ... who knows what, but basically what runners have run.

Let real competition live and the stats are for those of us who can't run what we used to. Plow-Plow-Plow.


Jeff Deuel said...

Since there isn't a message board yet, I'll use this section to wish Albert a happy birthday! Thank you for all you do for the running community. You've done a wonderful job shining the spotlight on some of the hardest working , most under-recognized athletes in youth sports. Your efforts here are deeply appreciated.

Albert Caruana said...

Thanks Jeff. Best of luck to your son and all the SRV runners at state.

Popular Posts