Thursday, November 15, 2007

NCS MOC Pre-Meet Predictions

You will get a more detailed version of the following rankings with the meet program at NCS this Saturday. What I will post is my team predictions going into Saturday's meet. I have to say that this year was a much more difficult process than last year as some of the divisions are extremely competitive and multiple (4-8) teams are in the mix for NCS titles and state meet berths.

Best of luck to all individuals and teams. As always, these are just my best estimates based on what has happened so far this season and in the end the results will be determined at the races.

All Divisions Top 10 NCS MOC Times for Hayward Course

Map of the Hayward Course courtesy of the Miramonte XC website:

Newspaper articles leading up to NCS Meet:
Knight's runner faces tall task (Greg Drosky Las Lomas)
2 girls develop epic running rivalry (Nicole Hood and Jacque Taylor)
Even by Petaluma standards, Trojan SCL run is awesome
Everything fell into place for Arroyo cross country

Feel free to chime in on any of the divisions (boys and girls) with a comment below.

Division I Girls - (Top 2 teams advance to state meet):
1. Castro Valley
2. College Park
3. Granada
4. California
5. Monte Vista

Boys – (Top 2 teams advance to state meet):
1. Amador Valley
2. Monte Vista
3. Deer Valley
4. College Park
5. Castro Valley

Division II Girls - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):
1. Carondelet
2. Livermore
3. Casa Grande
4. Montgomery
5. Santa Rosa

Boys - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):
1. Petaluma
2. De La Salle
3. Washington
4. Santa Rosa
5. Montgomery

Division III Girls - (Top 4 teams advance to state meet):
1. Campolindo
2. Maria Carrillo
3. Acalanes
4. Las Lomas
5. Redwood

Boys - (Top 4 teams advance to state meet):
1. Campolindo
2. Maria Carrillo
3. Acalanes
4. Las Lomas
5. Tamalpais

Division IV Girls - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):
1. St. Mary's Berkeley
2. Arcata
3. Piedmont
4. San Rafael
5. Moreau Catholic

Boys - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):
1. St. Mary's Berkeley
2. Moreau Catholic
3. San Rafael
4. Sir Francis Drake
5. Arcata

Division V Girls - (Top 4 teams advance to state meet):
1. Crystal Springs Uplands
2. College Prep
3. Marin Academy
4. University
5. Lick Wilmerding

Boys - (Top 5 teams advance to state meet):
1. University
2. College Prep
3. Berean Christian
4. South Fork
5. Lick Wilmerding


Anonymous said...

wow - it would be weird symmetry if Div III boys & girls actually finished in the exact same order - it almost looks like a cut and paste mistake if not for a switch in #5 teams

Albert Caruana said...

I didn't realize that I picked the same order for Div. III 1-4 for the boys and girls until you pointed it out. It wasn't intentional.

I feel a little stronger about my girls' predictions. I wouldn't be surprised if either the Campo, MC, Acalanes or Las Lomas boys win the team title on Saturday.

Should be a great race.

Anonymous said...

The links under the map for the news stories are identical (they go to the same article).

Albert Caruana said...

Thanks for catching that.

Fixed now.

Anonymous said...

Interesting how Attarian cant seem to get much respect in the polls when he will probably dominate everyone at NCS. Shows what the polls know.

Matt Duffy said...

I think people in the NCS know what James Attarian will do. He has a great shot at the state title! And has proved himself as the fastest male in NCS. He is a stud.

Anonymous said...

Which Div V Boys teams would you consider to be sixth and seventh?

Albert Caruana said...

Based on how teams ran at their league finals, there are a few teams that are right on the cusp of qualifying for state. First, watch our for Rincon Valley Christian. After them you have St. Vincent, Marin Academy, Stuart Hall and Crystal Springs Uplands.

Anonymous said...

what do you think Tamalpais's chances are for making state as a team in Division III?

Albert Caruana said...

I believe Tamalpais is the 5th best team right now. The teams trailing them are Redwood HS and Eureka. Eureka ran unbelievable last year at the NCS meet so they are always a contender. As I have said earlier, you have Campo, Maria Carrillo, Acalanes and Las Lomas in the first four spots. Any of those teams could conceivably win the NCS title. Tam will need one of those teams to drop and then yes, they would have a shot.

Anonymous said...

What about Santa Rosa Christian in D5 boys

Albert Caruana said...

If I had to name the next team following the last four teams I mentioned, that would be Santa Rosa Christian. They are all very close.

Anonymous said...

I noticed that St. Vincents did is not on the entries list

Albert Caruana said...

Good catch. I don't see them either. I am not sure of the reason.

Anonymous said...

According to a source at the NCS office, 3 teams did not submit in time for the deadline, St. Vincent's was one of them.

Connor of mv said...

Granada really stepped up today, I'm impressed.

Albert Caruana said...

Very nice job for them moving up to 3rd and of course nice job for MV for winning the tough Div. I race.

I will have more posted tonight and tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Albert, your predictions for DIII Boys are amazing -- you pretty much called it 1 - 7!!!

Albert Caruana said...

The first four teams were SO close that I had to just pick and stop trying to dissect the field after a while. I did pick Acalanes for 3rd and Las Lomas for 4th which turned out to be LL and then Acalanes.

It was a very competitive race as many figured out beforehand.

Anonymous said...

I was surprised that D1 Boys wasn't closer...

Anonymous said...

amador's #2 runner is on suspension. and mv guys ran amazing today. thats why the 25 point gap from av to mv was so large.

scary thing is amador returns every scorer besides shawn daut.

Anonymous said...

should there have been the suspended runner in the boys D.1 race for AV, he would have had to PR greatly in order to surpass MV

Suzi said...

YES SRHS girls beat Montgomery! I'm so happy he was wrong. Now maybe he'll know to watch out for us next year, especially when our top two runners are healthy- or actually running (our original #1 runner had to take the whole season off due to stress fractures and our original #2 is still getting over a foot injury).

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