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Monday, November 14, 2011

NCS Rankings going into NCS Meet of Champions

I will once again be writing up the preview article for the NCS Meet of Champions this year.  Below are the stripped down version of the rankings (without commentary).  I would love to get everybody's thoughts on all the divisions and who are the top contenders (teams and individuals).  Any help would be great appreciated.  Please help rank the following teams and speak up if you see any errors!  Did I miss anybody?  Who should move up or down?

Division I Boys
1.  Amador Valley
2.  De La Salle
3.  Granada
4.  Monte Vista
5.  Santa Rosa
On the bubble:  Livermore, Castro Valley.

Division I Girls
1.  Granada
2.  Amador Valley
3.  Monte Vista
4.  James Logan
5.  Livermore
On the bubble:  Castro Valley, Santa Rosa, Berkeley.

Division II Boys
1.  San Ramon Valley
2.  Alameda
3.  Maria Carrillo
4.  Dougherty Valley
5.  American
On the bubble:  Arroyo, Clayton Valley, Casa Grande.

Division II Girls
1.  Maria Carrillo
2.  Alameda
3.  College Park
4.  San Ramon Valley
5.  Dougherty Valley
On the bubble:  Clayton Valley, Washington, Casa Grande.

Division III Boys
1.  Piner
2.  Campolindo
3.  Miramonte
4.  Redwood
5.  Bishop O'Dowd
On the bubble:  Las Lomas, Tamalpais.

Division III Girls
1.  Campolindo
2.  Acalanes
3.  Redwood
4.  Las Lomas
5.  Bishop O'Dowd
On the bubble:  Tamalpais, Piner, Miramonte.

Division IV Boys
1.  St. Mary's Berkeley
2.  Sir Francis Drake
3.  Cardinal Newman
4.  Moreau Catholic
5.  Piedmont
On the bubble:  Arcata, San Rafael, Marin Catholic.

Division IV Girls
1.  Arcata
2.  St. Mary's Berkeley
3.  Piedmont
4.  Sir Francis Drake
5.  Marin Catholic
On the bubble:  Moreau Catholic

Division V Boys
1.  University
2.  St. Joseph Notre Dame
3.  Sonoma Academy
4.  Athenian
5.  Marin Academy
On the bubble:  Lick Wilmerding, College Prep, Urban.

Division V Girls
1.  University
2.  College Prep
3.  Urban
4.  Lick Wilmerding
5.  Marin Academy
On the bubble:  Branson, Head Royce, Sonoma Academy.

Thank you in advance for your help.

145 comments:

Anonymous said...

DIII Boys:
1. Miramonte
2. Campolindo
3. Piner
4. Bishop O'Dowd
5. Las Lomas

Anonymous said...

DIII Boys:

1. Campolindo
2. Piner
3. Miramonte
4. Redwood

Anonymous said...

DI Girls:

1) Jena Pianin - Amador Valley
2) Carina Novell - Granada
3) Kelly Parsons - Amador Valley
4) Maryann Gong - Granada
5) Maddie Quinn - Amador Valley
6) Alyssa Horning - Granada
7) Natalie Dimits - Livermore
8) Kelsey Giradelli - Granada
9) Katharine Smiley - Monte Vista
10) Katie Girvan - Amador Valley

These girls are strictly out of EBAL but from what I can tell, EBAL will be most prominent in the D1 Girls race. Also, This list is coming strictly from the most recent meet, EBAL Finals. Things will definitely be moved around in the final outcome of the race, but I bet we'll see most of these names in the top 10 finishers in the D1 race.

As you can see, it should be quite an interesting race between Amador Valley and Granada. Granada has had an amazing season, but the Amador Valley Girls just got back a member of their top 5 from injury, and another member of their top 5, who didnt race ath the EBAL Championship, may be racing at NCS. Very interesting indeed.

Anonymous said...

Dlll Boys


1. Piner
2. Campolindo
3. Miramonte

Anonymous said...

Div V girls

1 SF University. This team is a clear lock for first.
2 (tie) College Prep and Urban. These teams seem remarkably close when you compare the per mile paces.
4 Lick Wilmerding
5 Marin Academy - very close behind Lick

I don't know where Branson fits in, because I can't find any of their results online for some reason.

Anonymous said...

DIII Boys:
1. Miramonte
2. Piner
3. Campolindo
4. Las Lomas
5. Redwood

Anonymous said...

Who challenges SRV in DII?

Anonymous said...

no one challenges srv in DII boys.
DII Boys:
1. San Ramon Valley
2. Alameda
3. Maria Carrillo

Anonymous said...

please show me some evidence that puts las lomas over redwood.

Anonymous said...

DIII boys
1.campolindo
2.Piner
3.Miramonte
4.This is between three teams really at least for 4/5
A)Redwood
B)Bishop O'dowd
C)Las Lomas

Anonymous said...

DIII boys

1. Luna
2. Conner
3. Joyce
4. Silva
5. Stalters
6. Compestine
7. Goltra
8. Read
9. Troxel
10. Hanson

Anonymous said...

its actually scary how good the first 3 teams are. but i'm gonna have to give it to Piner. Their performance at NBL was literally Amazing. almost 7 kids under 16.

Anonymous said...

Jamie F. > T. Hanson

Anonymous said...

D5 boys
1. St. Joseph
2. University (Athenian did beat them, but University had a really good race at mt. sac and look to even be a contender for 1st)
3. Athenian- not too far behind, could be a threat
4. Sonoma Acadamy- also in the mix
5. Marin Academy
on the bubble: Lick Wilmerding, College Prep

Anonymous said...

lot of controversy over D3 boys. anyone care to explain their picks?

Anonymous said...

Any input on Ratto, Clark, or Arias for individual win? It seems like every other divisions champions are set with the exception of division 5

Anonymous said...

Not much controversy in D3 - just 3 very good teams in Campo, Piner and Miramonte. Any of them could challenge SRV in D2

Anonymous said...

Who wins D1 individual boys?

Anonymous said...

For D5 boys St Joesph's looks the best on paper, but Univeristy has a habit of coming out on top even when they are ranked second, and Athenian has a lot of young talent who could make sudden improvements in postseason. As far as the Individual boys title, I believe that Connor Clark will eat both Arias and Ratto for breakfast-he has run close to 16 flat on lindley meadow-a course infamous for being slow, and ran a far faster time than either of the Pilots at mt Sac. I also wouldn't be surprise to see the frosh Trevor Reinhart break into the top 3.

Anonymous said...

For D5 boys individual Connor Clark seems almost unbeatable. both Marin Academy- Trever Reinhardt, (and maybe James Kinney) and St. Joseph-Gabe Arias and Nick Ratto will be up there but in the end I don't think they really have a chance. Clark had a great race at Mt. Sac and looks to do really well at state too

Anonymous said...

Both Arias and Ratto can beat Clark. If the race comes down to a final kick down is there anyone who really thinks Clark can out kick Ratto? It's going to be a great race. I can not see SJND losing the team title. Did someone really say Athenian has a chance to beat them? This BCL bias is crazy.

Anonymous said...

D1 boys is going to be Molineux from De La Salle. He's looking very strong right now. It would have been Fuhriman from Monte Vista but he's out for the season.
Connor McCarthy from Amador is a close second behind Molineux.

Anonymous said...

Any thoughts on D3 girls?
I have no idea after the top 3.
1. Campolindo
2. Acalanes
3. Piner?
4. Las Lomas/Redwood?

Anonymous said...

thats IF ratto can stay with clark...

Anonymous said...

D1 boys:

1) Amador Valley - Their strong #'s 2-4 will give them the win

2) De La Salle - Evan Molineux is the favorited 1st place finisher

3) Granada - Lead by Grant Salk, Their 2-5 tend to finish in a pack

4) Monte Vista - Without Trevor Furhriman, their chances at a top 2 finish are slim

5) Livermore - Joel Schmierer is inconsistent but when he has a good day he is a front runner

On The Bubble) Santa Rosa - Going to try to hold their own in a division packed with very competetive EBAL teams
D1 girls:

1) Granada - Consistent favorite throughout the season, but seemed to falter a bit at the EBAL Championship on saturday. Pottential upset possible by...

2) Amador Valley - Finaly getting up to full strength after they have had their top 5 battle injuries throughout the season. and lead by Jena Pianin, they will certainly put Granada to the test

3) Monte Vista - Maybe a little underprepared for the lurking battle between Granada and Amador Valley, however if everything goes right they will be ready to steal a spot to Fresno

4) Livermore - Lead by consistent top NCS contender Natalie Dimits, the Livermore girls are looking to work their way back up to the level of their 2007-2008 championship status

Anonymous said...

Clark is the clear favorite for the individual win. St joes looked pretty foolish last year after insisting Arias would defeat Cole Williams who was clearly out of their league. This is the same deal.

For the Girls were looking at a 123 university sweep

Anonymous said...

Now wouldn't that be foolish is clark did the same?

Anonymous said...

If*

Anonymous said...

What about D3 girls?

Anonymous said...

DIII Girls
1.Campo
2.Acalanes
3.Redwood
4. Las Lomas/Petaluma/Piner?

Anonymous said...

DIII Boys:

Top three is close - Campolindo, Piner, Miramonte.

Redwood should be 4th. They went head to head with Bishop O'Dowd @ Stanford. It wasn't close:
5. 174 REDWOOD LARKSPUR (16:34 82:47 1:29)
10. 366 BISHOP O'DOWD (17:13 86:03 1:43)

At Clovis, Redwood ran in D3, Bishop ran in D4:
27 Redwood (Larkspur) 1089 1:23:18 16:39
37 Bishop O'Dowd 1249 1:23:40 16:44

Las Lomas doesn't have the depth to compete with those top 5 teams. Only 2 sub-17 runners.

Anonymous said...

D2 and D4 predictions. Alot of talk about D1 and D3

Anonymous said...

Deuel / SRV looked good at EBAL and will likely repeat at NCS

NCS Runner said...

o'dowd didn't put one runner under 17 at their league meet at Hayward

Anonymous said...

DIV Girls
1. Arcata - Keep an eye on this team over the next few years. They are lead by one senior with one sophomore, and three freshmen. And,oh, by-the-way, next year when they lose the senior, they pick up Chloe Pigg. 10:40 two mile/ 5:03 mile as a 7th grader last year.

Anonymous said...

D2 Boys
1. SRV
2. Alameda
3. Maria Carillo
4. Dougherty Valley

D2 Girls
1. Maria Carillo
2. SRV
3. College Park
4. Calyton Valley

who else??

Anonymous said...

Ive heard good things from Dougherty Valley - they could be the surprise team in D2 this year and perhaps pick up that 3rd spot for state meet

Andrew said...

The Alameda girls are looking strong - fastest NCS D2 time at Mt Sac.

That info on the Redwood vs BOD vs Las Lomas battle is pretty conclusive I'd say. I think Campo is the top D3 boys team but its a toss up really. Each of those top 3 have had excellent showings this year.

I agree with most D1 rankings put out so far - I think Castro Valley is ahead of Livermore however.

Clark is the favorite to take D5 individual title because I think Arias and Ratto will want to stay together to guarantee 2nd and 3rd to stay ahead of Reinhart, Kinney, etc and get the team title. I don't think there's any doubt University girls win it.

D2 boys rankings are spot on so far.

D4...The girls are so hard to predict. Arcata is a favorite for sure. I really don't know much about the division in general...St. Mary's on both sides is pretty good. Nicole Lane is the individual favorite, but I have no clue about the guys...Calvert of SMB?

I am really looking forward to this meet with the timing chips to give live updates during the races.

Anonymous said...

John Lawson of Sir Francis Drake is for sure the top seed for NCS,if Not State

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately weather calls for Rain Friday through Saturday next week which really sucks it will makes things interesting for sure. Hope it passes somehow.

Anonymous said...

so D2 girls more like...

1. Alameda
2. Maria Carillo
3. SRV
4. College Park
5. Clayton Valley and Dougherty Valley

Anonymous said...

how fast is the indian valley college course compared to woodward/ hayward?

Anonymous said...

Good question. And for that matter, how fast is Lindley Meadow vs. either of them?

Anonymous said...

the lindley meadow course has been altered this year and is about 20-30 seconds faster than before and has become better suited to speed runners: is flatter, has more open areas for passing and less intimidating hills.

Andrew said...

To my earlier comment...I think the CV girls are ahead of Livermore girls...

And yes, I completely forgot about John Lawson. Definitely the favorite to win D4.

Anonymous said...

D3 boys:
1.Miramonte
2.Campo
3.Piner
4t.Bishop O'Dowd
4t.Redwood
6.Tam
7.Las Lomas

Anonymous said...

In boys D1, Amador Valley vs. De La Salle should be a battle to the bitter end. It's arguably the best race of the day right next to Piner vs. Campolindo in D3

K dog said...

except Piner Vs. Campo Vs. Miramonte deals with 3 teams ranked in the top 5 state wide.

Anonymous said...

Boom shizzle on whoever posted that "wouldnt it be foolish for clark to do the same" comment in response to the previous one. i speak for all of us when i say pwned

Anonymous said...

Division 1:
- De La Salle
- Amador Valley
Division II:
- San Ramon Valley
- Alameda
- Maria Carillo
Division III
- Piner
- Campolindo
- Miramonte
- ?

Division IV - don't follow

Division V
- only thing i can say is SJND is gonna take the win, with Ratto as the individual champion

Anonymous said...

Whats the order of events?

Albert Caruana said...

http://cifncs.org/sports/cross_country/files/CrossCountry11.pdf

Anonymous said...

Don't you just love the certainty of predictions? - everyone, almost,last year so sure of Arias and SJ, yet Cole Williams buried everyone and Urban still won without its number 3 runner.

Timothy J. said...

DIII boys

Teams
1. Miramonte
2. Campolindo
3. Piner
4. Redwood

Individual

1. Luna
2. Conner
3. Joyce
4. Fehrnstrom
5. Stalters
6. Silvia
7. Goltra
8. Read
9. Hanson
10. Compestine

Anonymous said...

If Ratto and the SJND boys don't choke, he and the team will win D5 handily.

Anonymous said...

Amador Valley beat De La Salle comfortably at the EBAL league meet, while Amador's #4 suffered a mild hamstring injury mid-race and their #5 had the worst race he's had all season. Assuming everything goes normaly well, Amador beats De La Salle at NCS D1. Just like it has been happening the majority of the season. De La can't compete with AV's 2-4 cluster.

Anonymous said...

D2 girls: Don't forget Logan... http://www.fordtiming.com/Results/2011/MVALXC/VARSITYGIRLS.HTM

Anonymous said...

On paper Amador beats DLS but the Don's have had a hard time closing the deal in Hayward in years gone by. Connor McCarthy may still only be a Jr. but he seems to bring a maturity to this team that should put them on the podium at NCS and have them running Woodward after their turkey dinner.

I say Don's take D! and make the trip south for the big dance!

Albert Caruana said...

James Logan is Division I.

Anonymous said...

very humble of you to give miramonte the win timothy

The real timothy said...

Someone here is not who he claims to be...

Anonymous said...

What bothers me is the fact that NCS has the most teams ranked in the top 10 for all divisions in both genders (besides SS of course), yet it is still one of the most ignored sections out there. It is overshadowed by CCS and CE, despite NCS consistently putting teams into the top 10 at state over the last few years.

Anonymous said...

HAAL Finals looked really good today. I believe 3 sub 16s today?

Anonymous said...

any results from HAAL?

Anonymous said...

at the haal finals today, bishop o'dowd runner andrew melendez (only a soph)won the var boys race with a time of about 15:36. pretty impressive time on the ncs course

Anonymous said...

For HAAL you had 3 sub 15
1) Andrew Melendex 15:37 Bishop O'dowd
2)Lorenzo Galindo 15:40 Arroyo
3)Adam White 15: 44 Arroyo

O'dowd won the meet with their top 5 breaking 17.

Anonymous said...

Sam Kane looked like he had a really bad race today. Wonder if he will be better for NCS.

Anonymous said...

WHERE ARE THE FULL RESULTS OF THIS??

Anonymous said...

I dont know who has the full results HAAL is not the best of posting them online if I can find them I will

Albert Caruana said...

Here are some (scroll down):
http://www.insidebayarea.com/high-school-sports/ci_19325637

Anonymous said...

Carter Mackey 16:18 Only a Freshman!

Anonymous said...

*16:19

Anonymous said...

I'm pretty sure Melendez's time puts him #5 all time on Hayward for a sophomore.

Anonymous said...

piner had 6 of their guys under 16 for three miles at their league meet and their 7th was 16:01, piner is looking really impressive

Anonymous said...

How does the course Piner ran on for league (3.05 mile Spring Lake County Park) compare with Hayward in terms of times for guys?

Albert Caruana said...

Spring Lake is 1.3% faster than Hayward HS. 16:00 at Springs Lake is about 16:12 at Hayward.

Stew said...

Thanks Albert!

In that case, I'd estimate that their average guy would run 11 seconds slower at Hayward compared to Spring Lake. Adding 55 seconds to their Spring Lake team time gives 77:54.. That's incredible for Hayward. Good luck Piner. This will be a race for the ages.

Anonymous said...

Looking at the MVAL results on fordtiming.com, there are some good individuals for both girls and boys such as last year's state qualifiers Nolan Petersen and Amihan Agustin. Also be on the lookout for Logan's girls and American's boys, they're definitely in the top 5 for their divisions.

Anonymous said...

For D-II Boys
1. San Ramon - No Doubt
2. Maria Carillo - They are better than Alameda, Alameda only seems faster because they registered D-I at Mt. Sac, and a combination of Competition and better temp. and air quality yielded faster times
3. Alameda
4. American - They got 5 in the top 10 at MVAL's

Albert Caruana said...

Excellent and Division II girls?

Anonymous said...

The freshman Christine Bayliss of SRV is no doubt the #1 D2 runner. She has a very good shot of finishing in the top 10 at State.

Anonymous said...

fantasies abound, it's amazing how people twist results to yield what they want rather than focus on what is the case-take D5 girls for example,
Lick beats Marin in the BCL championship yet Gonzalez still ranks Marin 6th in the State and Lick is off the charts- such prescience- Alameda accomplished it, that should count, speculation is specious.

Anonymous said...

10:47 pm says: to clarify, I have nothing to do with either Alemeda or Lick- just looking at results over the course of a season

Anonymous said...

Random question/prediction/suspicion...

Does anyone think it's possible that the Granada girls have fizzled out a little? Granada teams have been known to peak early in the past.

Anonymous said...

Not to get all Wittgenstein about it, but the past is a propositional variable. It looks like the Granada girls will rewrite the sentence.

Anonymous said...

wait why is SJND ranked second?

Anonymous said...

it would be a miracle if Moreau Catholic boys make it to state.

Anonymous said...

D5 rankings are a joke, SJND is untouchable. What is this University business.

Albert Caruana said...

Division IV is rather thin this year. You have Tamalpais moving up to Div III and University going back down to Div V. Most of the other teams are not as good so if you want to make state in Div IV, this is your year.

We will see about Div V boys. I think it's going to be a lot closer than people think. Yes, St. Joseph could win and win handily. We can just call it my upset special.

The other interesting race is Div III boys. Piner and Campo are SO close. One off race by any runner for either team could be the difference.

Keep the comments coming. State your evidence.

Ned said...

These teams are very evenly matched, but here's my guess at why Albert chose UHS.

Let's compare league championship results.
SJND for what I'm assuming is a 2.9ish course

15:03
15:06
16:15
16:38
16:40

UHS for lindley 5k
16:05
17:01
17:08
17:44
18:06

Based on Mt. Sac, let's assume that connor clark is at least a little better than Arias and Ratto and earns the win in a head to head. With that assumption here's a rough conversion to the BSAL league course.

UHS times adjusted very modestly
Clark - 15:00
#2 ~ 16:00
#3 16:08
#4 16:44
#5 17:00

This shows what we already know: that it is going to be a very close matchup. Having said that, based off of Mt. Sac, UHS has a slight edge. Clark was better than Arias and Ratto. ~30 seconds better than Arias on that tough course, or perhaps 15-20 seconds at hayward.

If you adjust the above times by that many seconds, the head to head matchup favors UHS. University's #4 would be competing to finish ahead of SJND's #3 and UHS could have 5 in before SJND has 4.

When it comes down to it. These are just predictions based on rough estimates. It's tough because SJND and UHS haven't had any real head to head matchups.

Anonymous said...

Petaluma should be in the mix in D-3 girls.

Albert Caruana said...

Thanks Ned.

What place for the Petaluma girls?

Anonymous said...

I would have to give the edge to Campolindo over Piner. Although Piner beat Campolindo by a point at the Rough-Rider invite(fresno), Campolindo has a history of running great in big meets. Miramonte looks to be a solid 3rd and it's a toss up for the last spot between Redwood, Bishop O'Dowd and Las Lomas.On the bubble would be Sonoma and Petaluma

Anonymous said...

Petaluma Girls in the hunt for the forth spot.

Anonymous said...

If we're alowed to put our input about individuals, then here are my thoughts about D-1 Girls. (reposted from above)

1) Jena Pianin - Amador Valley
2) Carina Novell - Granada
3) Kelly Parsons - Amador Valley
4) Maryann Gong - Granada
5) Maddie Quinn - Amador Valley
6) Alyssa Horning - Granada
7) Natalie Dimits - Livermore
8) Kelsey Giradelli - Granada
9) Katharine Smiley - Monte Vista
10) Katie Girvan - Amador Valley

These girls are strictly out of EBAL but from what I can tell, EBAL will be most prominent in the D1 Girls race. Also, This list is coming strictly from the most recent meet, EBAL Finals. Things will definitely be moved around in the final outcome of the race, but I bet we'll see most of these names in the top 10 finishers in the D1 race.

Anonymous said...

The rain forecast is inconsistent. Accuweather has....

http://www.accuweather.com/us/ca/hayward/94541/forecast-details.asp?fday=6

Anonymous said...

Granada boys move up over Monte Vista. Trevor Furhiman is out for the season and MV will have a hard time filling his place.

Anonymous said...

DIII Girls at the Clovis Invitational (from the combined results, they all seemed to be in different races):

14 Acalanes 636 1:37:30 19:30
34 Redwood (Larkspur) 1105 1:39:40 19:56
61 Las Lomas 1717 1:42:35 20:31
78 Bishop O'Dowd 2085 1:44:39 20:55

Seems like maybe you have 3-5 ranked upside down?

Albert Caruana said...

I will double check the times from the league finals for those 3 teams. Thanks for bringing that to my attention.

Anonymous said...

comment #100:)

Anonymous said...

Connor Clark alone can put the team on his back, hes a champ, he continues to "pick um off one by one" and is a clear favorite that will be "leaps and bounds" ahead of St. Joe's.

Anonymous said...

i wonder how uncomfortable this is for the individuals that get called out on here...

Anonymous said...

I don't understand why people's reason for University or SJND winning D5 have to do with whether or not Clark, Arias or Ratto wins individually, the race ( like it usually is in XC) will be mostly determined by the runners 2-5 and right now it seems as if SJND wins in that respect especially with Ratto/Arias as their 2

Anonymous said...

I really dislike the DV boys individual title dispute and the DIII boys team title dispute. Clearly, both of those competitions will be extremely interesting to watch and nearly impossible to propperly predict. Let's leave it at that. Why don't we focus on the other divisions and other individual races, that haven't necsarily gotten as much attention on this thread.

Anonymous said...

Great rankings overall. Agree with everything except one, ranking UHS Boys ahead of SJND. UHS number 3 is extremely inconsistent; look at his NCS D4 performance last year as an example, which was over a 1:30 slower than it should have been and cost them State, or his race on the Lick course before BCL Championships this year. Remember, 5 ATHENIAN runners finished in front of him! UHS' 1 is excellent and 2 is fine (but big gap between them), but 3 is not reliable. the SJND powerhouse Arios/Ratto will beat UHS' 2 and 3 for sure and maybe SJND's 3,4, and 5 could beat UHS' 3, depending on UHS' 3's race. Also, I think Ned's time modifications are overly generous, not sure where he is getting those numbers.... I'm biased towards SJND, but I think the runners show that they will win.

Andrew said...

I'm getting excited about all of these matchups, both team and individual. Even in the unpredictable D4, its anyone's guess team-wise and John Lawson vs Alexi Taylor seems like its going to be very competitive.

I still don't see how the Alameda girls are ranked 4th...I posted evidence above (top NCS D2 girls time at Mt Sac) and they also beat SRV at Lowell pretty handily. Maria Carrillo is really good and the only team I can see ahead of Alameda. They may not have the big names, but they run as a tremendously tight pack.

Even in the races we know what's going to happen, I think they're going to be very exciting. D3 girls - Verdon I feel has a chance to break 17. I doubt she's peaking for this meet, so maybe not, but she ran 17:19 last year in those awful conditions (her race was earlier than it will be this year, however). Seeing the third fastest time ever would be pretty cool.

Andrew said...

and why are people so afraid?

stop posting as "Anonymous"

Anonymous said...

Liam Gallivan from University is a strong contestant

Ned said...

The results that I used to convert the times came from 3 meets. The BCL championship, the BSAL Championship, and Mt. Sac.

Mt. Sac was the only thing close to a head to head matchup between the two teams even though they were in separate races. In that race, Arias ran 15:46 and Clark 15:17 (a difference of 29 seconds). I gave Clark the win based off of Mt. Sac, but gave him about the same time as arias. Then I just used the same spread that they had at the BCL champs over 5k. Not an exact science, still somewhat logical.

Honestly though, come saturday, whoever brings the noise is going to take home that banner.

Anonymous said...

Who is the San Ramon team going to consist og?

Anonymous said...

Looking at EBAL results: Deuel, Hardy, Devries, Wilke, Baumann, Hanze, and either Pisente or Holmgren, I'm guessing?

Anonymous said...

looking at the EBAL results it doesn't look like Hardy ran

Anonymous said...

is he not running right now?

Conor Dunn said...

Hardy was sick the week leading up to EBAL's so he didn't run but he will be running at NCS.

Anonymous said...

@connor-how does the rest of the team round out? is parker healthy?

Juan said...

There will be a lot of good races on Saturday...personally I cant wait to run it

Anonymous said...

lol juan gonzalez...

Anonymous said...

the juan and only

Anonymous said...

The SRV girls are much stronger now with the return of Liz Hebel, their number one girls from last year.

Anonymous said...

I believe everyone is over looking one of the finest runners in the Boys D-5 race. It would not be unrealalistic for the individual winner to come from Cloverdale. This kid can run, and it would not surprise me that he runs away from the field. I'm betting on Joe Carrillo, go Joe.

Albert Caruana said...

Not everyone. He's mentioned in the preview article you will get with your program on Saturday.

Anonymous said...

Liz is back, but SRV has a strong group of up and coming sophs hot on her heels, and of course, Bayliss out front. They could surprise on Saturday.

Anonymous said...

who cares. i say shut this thread down. let the legs do the talking.

Anonymous said...

who's Joe Carrillo?

Anonymous said...

So are we going to get to see a "Top 5/10 Individual Ranking" by division? We pretty much have enough info in these comments to compile one without much extra research.

Anonymous said...

D1 Boys:
1) Evan Molineux - De La Salle
2) Connor McCarthy - Amador Valley
3) Andrew Feldman - Monte Vista
4) Grant Salk - Granada
5) Jacob Schlachte - Amador Valley

D1 Girls:
1) Jena Pianin - Amador Valley
2) Carina Novell - Granada
3) Maryan Gong - Granada
4) Kelly Parsons - Amador Valley
5) Maddie Quinn - Amador Valley

Andrew said...

wow, I didn't know NCS D1 was EBAL only...

James Logan has two girls and a guy who have thrown down nice times. Berkeley has a girl who has beaten Gong among others. Castro Valley has a couple of talented girls leading them. I would say Livermore's duo of Schmeirer and Kohlgruber are definitely in the hunt.

Conor Dunn said...

@anonymous 3:28p, For now it is Deuel, Devries, Hanze, Wilke, Hardy, Baumann, Holmgren.

@anonymous 9:11p, Why shut down the thread? I assume everyone on here understands that the legs will do the talking on Saturday. In the meantime, why not discuss? That is what these message boards are here for right?

Anonymous said...

Andrew, are you Andrew Melendez of Bishop O'Dowd? Just curious

Andrews Friend said...

its not... that andrew doesn't own a computer...

Andrew said...

I am not Andrew Melendez of Bishop O'Dowd. But he did run a superb time at HAAL finals and I am looking forward to seeing what he, along with everyone else, can do this Saturday (I had never heard of him before).

Andrew Melendez said...

I'm Andrew Melendez, so I can personally attest that Andrew is not me.

Juan said...

D1 is EBAL only this year at least for guys. However D1 looks weaker this year too me...does anyone else get that sense or is it just me

Anonymous said...

D1 does seem a tad weaker this year. And I agree slightly with Andrew that there might be 1 or 2 runners that are missing from those top 5 lists, however I would say that that ranking cant be too far off. The fact is, D1 is an all-EBAL division. Sorry Andrew.

Anonymous said...

In case some of you don't know how good this year's Piner team is. The Petaluma teams of 07 & 08 who are #'s 2 & 3 all time at Hayward held the course record at Spring lake in Santa Rosa until this year when Piner smashed that record by nearly a minute. 08 Petaluma 77:49, 07 Petaluma 78:58.....2011 Piner 76:59. Expect the same at NCS finals.

Anonymous said...

D2 individuals?

Albert Caruana said...

You will find all the team and individual rankings going into the meet as well as commentary on all the races in the ncs program on Saturday.

Best of luck to all competitors!

It should be a great meet.

Anonymous said...

D2 Individual s/b win's by SRV on both the boys and girls side.

Parker Deuel is definitely healthy. He ran somewhere in the high 9:20's at the 2 mile time trial at SRV last saturday. Aide from his teammate, Paul Holden is the only name the come time mind if terms of challenging Deuel for an NCS title. Anyone else have names to added.

In terms of Deuels team mates, they all ran a time trial last Saturday. DeVries clocked what appeared to be a about a 9:50 and figures to be up front at NCS as well. Brian Hardy was also back after a couple of weeks being out sick. Not sure he will be 100% for Hayward but he was somewhere in the 10'O's - 10-teens along with Hanze and Wilke (both in the 10-O's). If these 5 are all health and on form Saturday, SRV could once again have 5 in the top 10 at NCS. If one of these guys falters, look for Sr. Nico Baumann to come up big as he did in Hardy's absence at EBAL.

Yes, Tim Hunter has this boys team loaded up headed into NCS and aiming for peak performance at St.

On the girls side, Bayliss was rumored to be ill in the days leading up to EBAL but s/b fully recovered by NCS. I'm not sure who on the girls side of D2 will challenge her for the title? ...anyone have any ideas here?

Anonymous said...

Lauren Kraus & Andria Natoli of Maria Carrillo along with Ashley Moffett of Casa Grande will all challenge for D2 individual championship.I think the winner will be Lauren Kraus.

1) L. Kraus
2) C. Bayliss
3) A. Natoli
4) A. Moffett

Anonymous said...

What about Division 1? Will there be anyone else challenging Carina Novell and Jena Pianin up in the front of the girls race?

Anonymous said...

D2 girls will be fun to watch. I could see any of those four winning. Two lady race in the D1 I think.

Anonymous said...

Agreed ^. Novell was consistantly in front of Pianin at the begining of the season but Pianin posted faster times at Mt. Sac and EBAL Finals. Should be a good race.

Anonymous said...

Is it just me or does Amador have a history of peaking too early?

Anonymous said...

It's just you. The Amador boys team has a history of not performing well at big meets. But it's been 3 years since Amador was seeded in the #1 spot going into NCS. Things change.

Andrew said...

I didn't feel like the comment above should be the last comment on this very long thread.

I look forward to seeing everyone tomorrow and hopefully everyone is at their best. NOW the feet do the talking! Good luck!