Now that we are two weeks into the season, how are my pre-season rankings looking so far? Who did I miss? Who should move up?
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BOYS
1) Dublin (NCS) Division II
2) Bellarmine (CCS) Division I
3) St. Francis, Mt. View (CCS) Division II
4) Willow Glen (CCS) Division II
5) Granada (NCS) Division II
6) Homestead (CCS) Division I
7) Maria Carrillo (NCS) Division III
8) Jesuit (SJS) Division I
9) Whitney (SJS) Division II
10) De La Salle (NCS) Division II
On the bubble:
Redwood (NCS) Division III
McLatchy (SJS) Division I
GIRLS
1) Granada (NCS) Division II
2) Campolindo (NCS) Division III
3) San Ramon Valley (NCS) Division II
4) Davis (SJS) Division I
5) St. Francis, Sacramento (SJS) Division II
6) Aptos (CCS) Division III
7) Homestead (CCS) Division I
8) Monte Vista (NCS) Division II
9) Santa Cruz (CCS) Division IV
10) Oak Ridge (SJS) Division I
Feel free to comment on the teams posted above. If you disagree with my list and feel like I left a team or two that deserve to be ranked, let me know in the comment section below. Who will be the best team (one for boys and one for girls) at the end of the season? Who is ready to have a breakout year? What teams will contend for a podium finish at the California state XC meet?
=====
BOYS
1) Dublin (NCS) Division II
2) Bellarmine (CCS) Division I
3) St. Francis, Mt. View (CCS) Division II
4) Willow Glen (CCS) Division II
5) Granada (NCS) Division II
6) Homestead (CCS) Division I
7) Maria Carrillo (NCS) Division III
8) Jesuit (SJS) Division I
9) Whitney (SJS) Division II
10) De La Salle (NCS) Division II
On the bubble:
Redwood (NCS) Division III
McLatchy (SJS) Division I
GIRLS
1) Granada (NCS) Division II
2) Campolindo (NCS) Division III
3) San Ramon Valley (NCS) Division II
4) Davis (SJS) Division I
5) St. Francis, Sacramento (SJS) Division II
6) Aptos (CCS) Division III
7) Homestead (CCS) Division I
8) Monte Vista (NCS) Division II
9) Santa Cruz (CCS) Division IV
10) Oak Ridge (SJS) Division I
Feel free to comment on the teams posted above. If you disagree with my list and feel like I left a team or two that deserve to be ranked, let me know in the comment section below. Who will be the best team (one for boys and one for girls) at the end of the season? Who is ready to have a breakout year? What teams will contend for a podium finish at the California state XC meet?
31 comments:
As if Stanford canceling their meet is not bad enough, nobody seems to know when the Crystal Springs (Serra) meet will be held. Is it on 10/7, the same day as Clovis or is it on 10/14, the same day as the Monterey meet at Toro? HELP!
On the 7th.
So the teams that signed up for the Crystal Springs Serra meet on 10/14 (link below) are going to show up but the gate will be locked?
https://www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/Results/Meet.aspx?Meet=133057#/Teams
I think I see where all of the confusion is coming from: there is something called the Crystal Springs Invitational on 10/7; and another meet that most of us call the Crystal Springs (Serra) Invite on 10/14. I think the Serra meet is the "real" CSI, the one that gets many of the better teams in the area (Bell is already signed up) and a few teams from other states. I think the name confusion was further exacerbated by Serra's change from typically being on the same day as Clovis to this year being the week after. Albert, can you verify all of this so teams can sign up for the right meet for them and also decide if they want to run both at Clovis and CS? That would do us all a big favor. Thanks.
The Crystal Springs Invitational hosted by Serra HS will take place on Saturday, October 7th. Any other posted meet on a different date is incorrect.
So, if you run at Clovis, what do you do on 10/14, go to the Monterey Bay Invite to run Toro one more time before CCS or is running the Earlybird or Chieftain good enough?
Hard to go against Walt's comparison: Bell and SF even (a new frosh/soph scorer could be the difference), Willow Glen, then Homestead.
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Does the 10:36 post mean that Gilkey is no longer coaching at Nueva!?!?!?!?!?!?!!?
When are you posting the rankings?
Will be working on this next. Had a few other projects to complete first.
What did Jeff do now?
I think Davis girls should be higher than number 4 given that they rank 2nd in the state overall using returning 5k prs. Tricky to compare them to Granada using that metric as Granada didn't run any super fast 5k courses, but Campo and San Ramon both ran Stanford and still come in behind Davis--I'd say that's a pretty apples to apples comparison.
It's a fair comment. I am fairly certain that Davis will once again be one of the top teams in the state. The top four teams should all be very good this coming with lots of returning talent. Davis did lose 2 of their top five including the runner that led them at NXN and has been a member of the varsity team the past four years, Sofia Castiglioni. I am sure there is plenty of talent waiting in the wings for them but for now, they are fourth.
Dublin seems like an obvious #1. There has been a lot of discussion here about Bell vs SF for #2. What was the tiebreaker? Also, 5 D2 teams in the top 9! Wow!
The last 30 years.
Due to division realignment, Loyola and Mira Costa will be moving from D2 to D1. Does that make Dublin the favorite for the D2 title?
Claremont, Dublin, St. Francis is the predicted D2 podium after the SS realignment.
Mile Split says returning CIF D2 5K results (corrected for Loyola moving to D1):
1. St Francis 5+7+30+47+63=152
2. Dublin 4+19+23+70+82=198
3. Willow Glen 9+13+28+65+124=239
Note: not accounting for new D2 teams Arroyo Grande and Paso Robles which would not factor in top 3. Claremont is #15.
I forget the old list, what has been updated on the new one?
Also, how do you feel about Bellarmine's performance at Lowell?
1. SF, 2. Granada, 3. Dublin, 4. Bellarmine
Beyond that, Willow Glen and Homestead both did not look so impressive this week.
Don't count out Bell yet. They split their team yesterday, probably for strategic reasons. The only concern should be Scales finishing 5th in a pedestrian time for him. SF looked formidable. The front 2 had identical times, as did 3 and 4, and they put 6 before 1, and 7 of top 8 on their way to a course record by :27! Not ready to flip the teams quite yet but the WCAL just got more interesting if that is possible this year. Don't know enough about what Dublin looked like or their strategy at the start of the season to move them up or down. But it looks like those are the top three NorCal teams early.
In terms of Ed Sias Invite and who was on your pre-season top 10 Men's:
Dublin was dominate, placed 1st, 2nd, and 3rd individual overall. Had all 7 in top 19. Maria Carillo looked a lot stronger than their ranking you gave them. Homestead is deserving of pre-season ranking, but they'll need to step it up in future competitions to maintain their spots. Finished third in team placing for race.
Granada Boys should be moved up 2 or 3 spots. They have been improving dramatically over the past two years. They spanked Bellarmine pretty hard at Lowell. Even if Bellarmine ran their top 5 athletes in the same heat, Granada would have easily finished ahead of them.
I would placed Santa Cruz VG up two spots and possibly 3, Aptos and Santa Cruz face each other at both Early Bird and league meet in next two weeks......keep on eye on these two teams.
Regarding 12:18 and 8:03's comment's about Homestead: Coach Sealy historically does not run his strongest team in Varsity early in the Season. Looking at the official results - Homestead's top 4 F/S finishers were all faster than 4th Varsity finisher.
to 12:02pm (9/12): Maybe this was mentioned elsewhere, but the combined top 5 for Bellarmine at Lowell doesn't mean much. McCrystal didn't run everyone. Whether that was due to injury, illness or insignificant (related to running) reasons, I don't have any idea. But at a glance I don't see Luke Pinkel or Neerav Gade or the stud new freshman. Bellarmine is going to be fine. To me, the more interesting story is St Francis' improvement (which I think is real) rather than Bellarmine moving backwards. It's going to be very, very interesting in the WCAL for the first time in forever.
Homestead: correct, can't judge by early meets or league meets where they jog. Woodbridge will tell the tale. Bellarmine: new frosh is injured. Main concern is Scales' time at Lowell. Maybe he is just coming back. Dublin: proved they are real and should factor at state. St. Francis (MV): possibly underrated, very deep. While both have higher goals in November, Bell and SF will have an epic battle at Crystal. Everyone should be on hand to watch that one. Willow Glen: have the horses but did not look good against their chief rival in D2 at Chieftain. Chance for redemption at EB.
TBH I've stopped looking at these rankings a while ago since it was very clear how strong Santa Cruz is, and people still rank them below Aptos, Homestead, Monta Vista, etc...if today didn't show you who's #1 in CCS as a team by far then nothing will (all top 6 girls sub 19:45!)
Jesuit would of finished higher in their last 3 meets, if Strangio had been running as he would of been about 40-60 places ahead of their last scoring runner. But I think you have to drop Jesuit out of the top 10 based on their 3rd place in league, and mid-pack results at the last two invites. They'll get back in up there when he returns.
Bella Vista (SJS) has placed above top-10 teams in their last two invites, but McClatchy looks fantastic and definitely not on the bubble.
And Dublin still dominates...
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