Sunday, November 07, 2010

SJS Girls State Qualifiers Predictions by Jason Jimenez...


Division 1 (2 State Berths)
1. Granite Bay 50 Q
2. Oak Ridge 55 Q
3. St Francis 60 Q
4. Lodi 115
5. McClatchy 135

Individual qualifiers:
Cassidy Daley (Lodi)
Teresa Mallory (Golden Valley)
Jillian Brown (McClatchy)
Jessica Diaz (St Francis)
Erin Matranga (St Francis)

Notes: WOW! Granite Bay's front-end is scary good, as most of the state has noticed, but look at Oak Ridge and St Francis, two teams who seemed to have pack run the subsection course together. Granite Bay could be picked off if their 5th girl (who could actually be their 5-6-7 girl really) can't get in quick enough as OR and SF are very ready to put all their scorers within the top 20 scoring positions. I'm going to guess GB holds on, but just barely, OR winning over SF by no more than 4 or 5 points. It's unfortunate that one of these ridiculously good teams has to stay home.

Individual winner prediction: Teammate vs teammate. Frosh Clare Carroll (GB) vs Senior Brooke Holt (GB). I'm going to pick the senior because she's been here before... Holt in 18:15ish, Carroll just behind.

Division 2 (3 Berths)
1. Del Oro 60 Q
2. Woodcreek 60 Q
3. Ponderosa 100 Q
4. Vacaville 115
5. Del Campo 120

Individual qualifiers:
Marisa Carino (Oakmont)
Kayla Josephson (Del Campo)
Jennifer Ramos (Buhach Colony)
Sara Lack (Bella Vista)
Haley Nevins (Del Campo)

Notes: WOW again! Del Oro vs Woodcreek could actually be the race of the section. Virtually tied at team times and scores at subs, I'm picking DO for the win because of their superior 3rd girl and just a general feeling about the foothills located school. Ponderosa, Vacaville and Del Campo should hold the above order but I wouldn't be surprised to see those 3 times flipped around, I'm looking mostly at DC's 3rd girl Senior Haley Nevins who qualified individually to State last year to move up significantly. 

Individual winner prediction: Sophomore Karina Nunes (WC) has the edge on Soph Brooke Ruppenthal (Pondo). This could be a very good head to head match up. I'm picking Nunes in 18:50ish over Ruppenthal's 18:55ish. 

Division 3 (3 berths)
1. Vista Del Lago 30 Q
2. Placer 55 Q
3. Sierra 130 Q
4. Christian Brothers 130 
5. Cosumnes Oaks 130

Individual qualifiers:
Samantha Smith (Sonora)
Andrea Haro (Cosumnes Oaks)
Kelsey Gallegos (Livingston)
Alex Moreno (Center)
Anne Donegan (El Dorado)

Notes: VDL! Wow, likely to go 1-2-3 in team scoring with 4-5 scorers dropping in to the top 15 in scoring positions. Placer looks to be a guarantee despite my worry in the pre-season rankings that they might not be ready to go this year. Glad I was proven wrong! Sierra, Chris Bros and Cosumnes are all about even. CO looks a little better in the front-end but suffers from a very very high scoring 5th girl, if that girl can make some magic happen at Willow Hills you might see CO pulling ahead of Sierra/CB. Likely though Sierra will hold both CB/CO off.

Individual winner prediction: Sophomore Madeleine Ankhelyi (VDL) will basically be alone up there finishing in 18:45ish. 

Jason Jimenez


Anonymous said...

Bella Vista beat Ponderosa and Vacaville at the Clovis Invitational. They beat Del Campo in 3 league meets this season. I heard they had 2 girls sick at subs, so I would think Bella Vista has to be mentioned as a contender as well.

Anonymous said...

re: BV Girls. That may be true, but based on Subs they are too far out of it (no way to know for sure if they were sick or not). -J

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