Sunday, November 07, 2010

SJS Boys State Qualifiers Predictions by Jason Jimenez...


Division 1 (2 State Berths)
1. Davis 45 Q
2. Oak Ridge 65 Q
3. Jesuit 90
4. Nevada Union 140
5. Modesto 155

Individual qualifiers:
Trent Brendel (Granite Bay)
Eric Jackson (McClatchy)
Chriss Grimble (Kennedy)
Blair Hurlock (Tracy)
Ben Arriaga (Franklin)

Notes: Davis looks to be good here, led by a trio who will all be in the top 10-15 scores. Oak Ridge took it easy at Subs and did some pack running, but there just doesn't seem to be enough space for them to all dip into the top 15 to break up Davis early lead. I'm looking at a score something like 45-65. Jesuit is unfortunately too far out to make a real run for it. Strange things happen at Sections however though so you never know. 

Individual winner prediction: Senior Trevor Halsted (Davis) looks to be ready to roll. Can Soph Trent Brendel (GB) or Senior Benjie Xie (OR) keep the pressure on challenge for the win? We will see. I pick: Halsted in 15:40ish - with the possibility we could see 3 runners dip under 16 in the same race at Willow Hills. 

Division 2 (4 Berths)
1. Del Campo 40 Q
2. Woodcreek 90 Q
3. Bella Vista 95 Q
4. El Camino 130ish Q
5. Ponderosa 130ish
6. Rocklin 130ish
7. Fairfield 130ish

Individual qualifiers:
Riley Ruppenthal (Ponderosa)
Ansel Mills (Rio Americano)
Mitchell Hawkins (Ponderosa)
Luis Mora (Oakmont)
Spencer Jones (Ponderosa)

Notes: Del Campo has it all but wrapped up with Senior Jack Nevins leading the charge. Woodcreek and Bella Vista could go either way depending on if BV's 3-4-5 pack were "cruising" at Subs, also depending on how WC's front-end ran at Subs - cruising or not? Subtracting individuals and assuming places stay generally the same, El Camino, Pondo, Rocklin and Fairfield are all within 10 points of each other. Any of these 4 teams could grab the final spot. I'm going to pick EC for it because their 3rd man Senior Robby Potter will likely fall into the mid-teens at Willow Hills cutting off at least 20 points from their score. Rocklin or Fairfield could see similar movement down in their score if their packs move through the field, but I don't see it happening as much. So EC might get in there by the skin of their teeth. Either way it will be close.

Individual winner prediction: Senior Chris Kigar (El Camino) will have Nevins (Del Campo) charging at his heels, but I expect Kigar to win in 15:30ish to Nevins' 15:50ish. 

Division 3 (3 berths)
1. Sonora  45 Q
2. Placer  85 Q
3. El Dorado 90 Q
4. Cosumnes Oaks 100
5. Vista Del Lago 115

Individual qualifiers:
Jacob Huston (Center)
Harjit Randhawa (Cosumnes Oaks)
Ryan Hodgens (Whitney)
Izzak Mireles (Livingston)
Matt Murphy (Woodland)

Notes: Well the excitement has dissipated somewhat as Sonora looks unbeatable after Subs. Led by Senior Nick Klein, Sonora could have all scorers in under 20, with the first 4 all within 10. Placer and El Dorado could be a battle for bragging rights, but since D3 was given an additional berth this year 2nd isn't as important as it once was. These two teams could flip. Cosumnes Oaks wasn't on my radar at all but they're looking strong as well. With individuals subtracted CO is within ~15 points of El Do/Placer, if either of those teams CO could be ready to make their claim on a state berth. 

Individual winner prediction: Finkbeiner (Placer) vs Klein (Son). Too close to call..still. But I'll try: Klein in 16:25ish to Finkbeiner's 16:30ish.  

Jason Jimenez


SJS Fan said...

Del Campo's team time of 1:21:27 is very fast ( 16:18 average ) and I think it may be a record for the Willow Hills course. Anybody know of a faster team time ?

Albert Caruana said...

Results posted online?

SJS Fan said...

Sent link to your email

Albert Caruana said...

Thank you. Posted above.

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