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Tuesday, November 15, 2016

2016 Final Pre-NCS meet divisional rankings (UPDATED)

Here are my final predictions for Saturday. A more indepth preview will be found in the program sold on Saturday. I have to say that this was by far the most difficult NCS meet to predict that I have done since 2006. It seems like every race has 2-3 teams that could potentially win. That is not unusual but what is unusual is of any of those teams win, many of them will not seem like upsets.

Looking at the weather report, it looks like the forecast says occasional afternoon rain. Perhaps it might rain after all the races and we will get a better idea in the next couple of days.

Division I
Girls - (Top 2 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Castro Valley
2.    Dougherty Valley
3.    James Logan
4.    Berkeley
5.    California

Boys - (Top 2 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Dougherty Valley
2.    Berkeley
3.    James Logan
4.    Castro Valley
5.    California

Division II
Girls - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Granada
2.    San Ramon Valley
3.    Monte Vista
4.    Liberty
5.    Dublin/Amador Valley/College Park

Boys - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Dublin
2.    Monte Vista
3.    De La Salle
4.    Granada
5.    Amador Valley/Clayton Valley/Mission San Jose

Division III
Girls - (Top 4 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Maria Carrillo
2.    Campolindo
3.    Alameda
4.    Redwood
5.    Carondelet/Tamalpais/Las Lomas/El Cerrito

Boys - (Top 4 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Campolindo
2.    Maria Carrillo
3.    Redwood
4.    Northgate
5.    Las Lomas

Division IV
Girls - (Top 4 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Piedmont
2.    Bishop O’Dowd
3.    Miramonte
4.    McKinleyville
5.    Arcata

Boys - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Bishop O’Dowd
2.    McKinleyville
3.    Miramonte
4.    Sir Francis Drake
5.    Albany/Piedmont

Division V
Girls - (Top 6 teams advance to state meet):
1.    St. Joseph Notre Dame
2.    Sonoma Academy
3.    Lick-Wilmerding
4.    University
5.    College Prep
6.    Convent/Branson/Urban

Boys - (Top 5 teams advance to state meet):
1.    St. Joseph Notre Dame
2.    University
3.    Sonoma Academy
4.    College Prep
5.    Lick-Wilmerding
6.    Marin Academy

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

It's been discussed a lot but I believe that for D2 boys the rankings are kind of a moot point. It would seem that Granada, De la Salle should be tied with Monte Vista and maybe even Dublin. Each school seems to have a close chance of making it to State.

Albert Caruana said...

You can't have a 4 way tie for first so had to pick. Dublin based on their performance overall, at Clovis and for winning EBAL is the favorite. I believe Monte Vista is the next best team but they will need to run well at NCS in order to at least finish in 2nd place. De La Salle has been very consistent this season and I think deserve their #3 ranking going into the meet. Granada, at this moment, might be the odd team out but they will run the race and the runners will decide who goes to the state meet.

Anonymous said...

Why was Heritage moved out of the D2 boys ranking? Just curious...

Anonymous said...

Curious on your thoughts of why you rank SRV girls over Monte Vista girls? they've raced six times with Monte Vista winning four of those races. I understand that throughout the season it has been rare that both teams fielded a full and healthy squad but 4/6 seems pretty compelling. Thoughts?

Anonymous said...

Curious on your thoughts of why you rank SRV girls over Monte Vista girls? they've raced six times with Monte Vista winning four of those races. I understand that throughout the season it has been rare that both teams fielded a full and healthy squad but 4/6 seems pretty compelling. Thoughts?

Anonymous said...

It's great to see that D2 has been getting the majority of focus entering NCS. I mentioned a few weeks ago how loaded I thought D2 was, and it hasn't disappointed. Not in any specific order, if team runners perform to their potential, Dublin, Granada, and Monte Vista should finish top three. Leaving De LaSalle as the next best team on the outside. What's probably the hardest thing to come to grips with is the fact that some incredible gifted individuals might be left out of the going to state based on not being in top 15, 4 non qualifying team runners. Mazonti from Santa Rosa, Charvet from Heritage, and White from Clayton Valley Charter need to have better than average races to position themselves for those individual bids. Would hate to see any of those top echelon runners in NCS not get the opportunity to race in Fresno. Would almost like to see a chalk race so the teams that have performed consistently make the top three and then those individuals run themselves in to those few remaining state spots. All deserving gifted runners. Good luck, and run hard.

Albert Caruana said...

When it comes to the pre-meet rankings, I have to make a guess on who will finish where. I am not always going to be correct. I think Granada, SRV and Monte Vista could all win if the other two teams are off. We will just have to see what happens on Saturday.

Anonymous said...

MV and SRV girls are essentially tied at 3-3 for the season as SRV tempo'd the Center Meet and left their top runner home. More stock should be put into the end of the season match up and that's where SRV is up, with a close win over MV at League finals. It's a dog fight either way!

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous 10:16PM Heritage's top runner Charvet was apparently injured at the BVAL finals, leaving a gap at the front. Not sure of the extent of the injury however....

Anonymous said...

St Joes Division 5 going to the top?

Anonymous said...

Whoa! I haven't been following. League reassignments. What happened to Las Lomas? New coach or graduated too many seniors last year? I thought they were fairly deep.

Anonymous said...

St. Joe's girls team makes sense. They are rocking most every race as Beatrice Levy comes back stronger each week. The boys team has been less consistent than the girls, but has what it takes in toughness, mid-pack strength and low-stick to have a good shot at the win.

Albert Caruana said...

If you look at this season, the best boys team in Division V has been University. Based on the past 5-6 years, the SJND boys have run big at the NCS meet. I think one of those two teams will win and if not them then Sonoma Academy.

Anonymous said...

Good luck to all at NCS.

Anonymous said...

lol MSJ. Over 100 votes!

Anonymous said...

What's up with the boys D2 poll? Mission....

Anonymous said...

Sort of unfortunate that as you try to have a serious blog site to discuss local high school cross country, that you get some people stuffing the voting opportunity you offer up for D2 winners at NCS. What thrill someone, or some people are getting out of voting Miision SJ as overall winners diminishes the objectivity of those who actually care. Albert, you do an awesome job here, I'm sorry those that cast a dull shadow on that part of the blog took advantage of your good graces. In my humble opinion, MSJ has a 0% chance, respectfully, to finish first in D2. I wish them a great race, but please people, let's try and respect the athletes and schools, and be honest with ourselves and not intentionally beat your own drum unreasonably. See you all tomorrow, D2 Boys will be the best race of the day.

Anonymous said...

Did Mission SJ pull off the win? They had so many votes I think they should be a lock.

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