Monday, September 25, 2017

Northern California Cross Country Rankings #2

THIS WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY (MONDAY-9/15/17). In the meantime, please let me know if any teams are missing or need to be moved up or down.
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Now that we have had a few races, we can start to narrow our focus on the top teams in the Northern part of the state. It is still quite difficult to shorten the list to 10 so here is my best attempt to date. Please let me know if I missed any team or if any of the teams below should be moved up or down.
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BOYS
1) Dublin (NCS) Division II
2) Granada (NCS) Division II
3) St. Francis, Mt. View (CCS) Division II
4) Willow Glen (CCS) Division II
5) Bellarmine (CCS) Division I
6) Maria Carrillo (NCS) Division III
7) De La Salle (NCS) Division II
8) Homestead (CCS) Division I
9) Jesuit (SJS) Division I
10) Del Campo (SJS) Division III

Also under consideration:
McClatchy (SJS) Division I
Bella Vista (SJS) Division II
Sir Francis Drake (NCS) Division IV
Rocklin (SJS) Division II
Whitney (SJS) Division II

GIRLS
1) Granada (NCS) Division II
2) Davis (SJS) Division I
3) St. Francis, Sacramento (SJS) Division II
4) Santa Cruz (CCS) Division IV
5) Campolindo (NCS) Division III
6) Aptos (CCS) Division III
7) Maria Carrillo (NCS) Division III
8) Homestead (CCS) Division I
9) San Ramon Valley (NCS) Division II
10) Vista del Lago (SJS) Division III

Also under consideration:
Presentation (CCS) Division II
Oak Ridge (SJS) Division I
Oakland Tech (OAK) Division I
Rio Americano (SJS) Division III

Comments welcome and encouraged. 

46 comments:

Anonymous said...

Homestead should not be up there

Albert Caruana said...

Are we talking boys and/or girls? Who should replace them?

Anonymous said...

I had to think about your list and it is hard to compare so many schools across divisions. Bella Vista and McClatchy (SJS) have both beaten Jesuit in their last two meets, with Bella Vista edging McClatchy in the DLS invite. I would swap BV in the 9th position and drop Jesuit out of top 10.

Anonymous said...

For the Boys ... Pay attention to Rocklin (SJS) ... Averaged 16:50 at Willow Hills in League meet last week. Take out Homestead and Del Campo. Add Bella Vista (SJS).

Anonymous said...

Boys. I'm not very aware of many other teams outside CCS, but I believe at least Palo Alto, Los Altos, and Carlmont all have stronger squads than them.

Anonymous said...

Four D2 teams at the top and 5 in the top 7! How did that happen?

Anonymous said...

Now that the Woodbridge racetrack invite is over we can be sure to see skewed 3-mile team and individual times for the rest of the season. Why can't we come up with a course calculator so the guys who make the rankings (Mile Split, Prep Cal Track) can do an actual comparison of ability and not just post times at disparate courses as if they are all the same? Toro and Crystal times should count a lot more than the grass superhighway at Woodbridge. Just saying.

Albert Caruana said...

When NCS did their major realignment two years ago, they moved teams back to divisions were they can match up with SS schools at the state meet. If Dublin and Granada were both in CCS, they would both be Division I schools.

Woodbridge is by far the fastest 3 mile course in CA so when you do rankings based on times, the teams that compete at that meet rise to the top. I try to be a big more subjective and look at other races as well. In the past, the Stanford Invite was always the best barometer of where teams actually stacked but we won't have the scale this year.

Anonymous said...

The Oakland Tech girls are probably good enough to be worth mentioning.

Anonymous said...

Bella Vista and McClatchy should be ranked higher than Jesuit.

Anonymous said...

I agree with @10:02

Mark Snow said...

Rocklin high is loaded and will be a top contender for a d2 SJS title. Whitney hasn't run all their A team together yet so even though they dropped out of your top 10, they will have a different result team wise at their first league meet coming up. Bella Vista is good and deserves recognition. they will battle with Rocklin and Whitney again for a section title and the 3 state meet berths from this section.

Mark Snow said...

also, Del Campo, like last year, has some really good up front talent but they are not deep like Rocklin, Whitney or BV. They should not be in a top 10 list. BV, DC, and Whitney are all in a very competitive league and they will sort themselves this week on WED at Willow Hills. It should be a great meet.

MV Moose said...

CCS Girls Top 15:
1) Santa Cruz - Two killer performances at Toro so far
2) Aptos - Looked great at Earlybird
3) Presentation - Beat St. Francis at Chieftain
4) St. Francis - Might have been missing some pieces at Chieftain
5) Homestead - Can't find any result, yet.
6) Carlmont - Surprising finish at Earlybird
7) Palo Alto - Based on Earlybird finish
8) Monta Vista - Based on Earlybird finish
9) Mountain View - Based on Earlybird finish
10) San Benito - Allows a calibration between Chieftain and Earlybird
11) S.L.V. - Based on Earlybird finish
12) Gunn - Based on Earlybird finish
13) Willow Glen - Based on Earlybird finish
14) Menlo School - Based on Earlybird finish
15) Castilleja - Based on Earlybird finish

Anonymous said...

Rio Americano girls will easily beat Vista Del Lago again, and they will prove it this weekend at the Pacific Tiger Invitational.

Anonymous said...

Add Rocklin Boys to "Under consideration" ... should be ahead of Jesuit and Homestead. SFL League meet last week at Willow Hills averaged 16:50 with 6 runners 17:06 or better. That would have won the SJS D2 last year at the end of the season. They have not run any big meets so people are sleeping on them.

Anonymous said...

How is St Francis in 3rd for girls? What are you basing this on?

Anonymous said...

Until teams run A squads or split, they should not be ranked on potential. Show me what you got NOW!
Of course all this is for fun until November. Good call on Oakland Tech getting a mention.

Albert Caruana said...

When you do current rankings at the beginning of the season, you have to toe a very fine line between current strength and potential. As long as the teams that deserve rankings are getting recognized, we can figure out actual rankings as the season progresses.

Hank said...

MV Moose - Homestead ran Woodbridge. What, no boys rankings?

hank

Anonymous said...

Will individual rankings be updated?

Albert Caruana said...

Individual rankings will be updated. Hopefully by Sunday.

MV Moose said...

Hank: I checked Woodbridge - thanks for the pointer! Homestead results there don't change my proposed ratings much. They're definitely ahead of Carlmont, but I'm not convinced they're ahead of Aptos.
I ran out of time to do boys'. Will try to get them for the next round - probably after Serra/Clovis.

All:
I completely agree with Anon at 1:25 and Albert at 1:27 - these are just for fun.

Michael Thomas said...

Yes it is ridiculous how big the PR's are at Woodbridge. They should just list it as a track time and not really CC. 😀

Mandee Starn said...

Monte Vista Girls have had a rough start with coaching issues and pre season injuries of 3 of their top 5. They have resolved their coaching issues and are healing. This team has been 5th in State in D2 the last 2 years and have only lost one of their top girls. Don't count them out!

Anonymous said...

Dublin ranked #3 in the state by Prep cal track.

Anonymous said...

newbie here...What makes a course like Toro run slower than Woodward? Is it the hills and ground cover? Crystal times also appear faster than Toro. What makes Crystal course faster than Toro? I understand that there are many other factors such as weather conditions that affect course conditions. again, newbie here.

Anonymous said...

newbie here...What makes a course like Toro run slower than Woodward? Is it the hills and ground cover? Crystal times also appear faster than Toro. What makes Crystal course faster than Toro? I understand that there are many other factors such as weather conditions that affect course conditions. again, newbie here.

Albert Caruana said...

I think Toro and Woodward Park are very comparable in time but Woodward is a longer course. They are both slower than Crystal Springs which I think is faster because of the two major downhills. Woodward Park is a 5k course but difficulty wise, it's easier than Toro Park and Crystal Springs.

Anonymous said...

I have St. Francis (MV) a clear number 1 in CCS and slightly ahead of Dublin for CA DII. I think some of the others doing rankings did not take into account the addition of Eng and Garcia to an established top 4. Each team has a great front line but the edge goes to SF in the 5-7 spots.

MV Moose said...

Anon at 6:24 -
Do you have a complete CCS Boys ranking? It would complement my girls ranking.
As long as they run, I'll take into account Eng & Garcia in a few weeks when I rank the boys.

And just a comment about Woodbridge - The Palos Verde girls' top runner and team time was remarkably close to their Lowell times. That allowed a calibration between the Homestead girls and the CCS teams that ran at Lowell. Not perfect, but something...

Anonymous said...

SJS Davis girls - I haven't seen the Mitchell sisters run yet (#4 and 5 from last years team) and not listed on Athletic.net team roster. I don't have any insight on this but if they're not running this year, maybe they shouldn't be ranked quite that high?

Anonymous said...

Anon@7:30 Article in Davis Enterprise mentions the Mitchell sisters are not running this year: http://www.davisenterprise.com/sports/mystery-year-or-is-dhs-cross-country-loaded-again/

Anonymous said...

Noteworthy: Vista Del lago Girls (SJS) just beat San Ramon Valley (NC) and St Francis (SJS) at the Pacific Tiger High School Invitational, so your next top 10 might have some shifting...

Anonymous said...

Homestead boys should be ranked below Los Altos, Palo Alto, and Carlmont.
Homestead underwhelmingly ran 78:32 (including Rosado's sophomore race) at Woodbridge. Los Altos ran 76:52 and Carlmont ran 76:59 at Lowell. Although a shorter course, it is similar in times with Woodbridge, perhaps even being "longer". Palo Alto also had a superior performance with their 82:08 at Earlybird.
I believe Homestead is greatly overrated and should maybe not even be "under consideration".
As far as NCS and SJS teams go, I am not quite sure how these other 3 CCS schools should fit in the rankings.

Anonymous said...

Vista del Lago VG beats St. Francis and San Ramon in same race and ranks 10th? Did their ranking suffer from being "small school?"

Albert Caruana said...

These are still the rankings from about a week ago. I will update to Ranking #3 sometime tonight.

Anonymous said...

St Francis should be #1 after their beast of an effort at Pacific Tiger. If not, I'd like to see the position by position math that puts a team ahead of them. Kumar and Colonna are the best 1-2 in NorCal and right up there with the best in the state. Add newcomers Eng and Garcia, and returner Skahill for a formidable top 5 that should top the early season list.

Anonymous said...

Granada and Dublin might get a crack at each other at Scott Bauhs this weekend. Excited to see the results of that race!

Anonymous said...

Granada and Dublin are in the same league! and are both D2, they will see each other many times this year.

Anonymous said...

Granada is not racing their varsity boys for Scott Bauhs and Im not sure about Dublin.

Anonymous said...

They wont race until clovis, but then will race at center meet and further on.

Anonymous said...

Does someone have a list of Clovis teams? The Lynbrook link is broken and Athletic.net only lists a few teams.

Anonymous said...

Anon @7:32 - Complete Clovis entries are posted on Clovis XC cross country site: https://www.clovisxc.com/ There's a link to a G-doc spreadsheet as well as PDF version.

Anonymous said...

Rio Americano Girls (SJS-D3) might of just had a bad race, but Livermore Girls (NC) did finish ahead of them in the overall standings at Pacific Tiger Invite.

Anonymous said...

It's likely Alex is either hurt or he took off more time after a long track season. He will be back by the time the championship season comes around.

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