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Sunday, October 31, 2010

SJS Boys Rankings Pre-Sections by Jason Jimenez

Boys
Division 1 (2 State Berths)
1. Davis
2. Oak Ridge
3. Jesuit
4. Lincoln (S)
5. McClatchy

Notes: Halsted returned in style at the BV Invite but then didn't race Mt SAC. After League Champs it's clear Davis' front 3 are very tough. Oak Ridge might have been holding back at DVL Champs but even if that were true, Davis' overall team scorers are just too tough. Maybe the Marauders can make something magical happen and bump Davis/OR out. Unfortunately, this seems unlikely for the perennial favorite - if Jesuit doesn't qualify it will only be the 3rd time in the history of the state meet that they missed out. Think about that for a moment. Currently, they have not gone to State ONLY two times since 1987.  

Individual winner prediction: Halsted (Davis) has already gone sub 16 at Willow Hills. Look for an attempt to go sub 15:50. 

Division 2 (4 Berths)
1. Del Campo
2. Bella Vista
3. Woodcreek
4. Vacaville
5. El Camino
6. Rocklin
7. Ponderosa

Notes: Del Campo could very possibly put 3 in the top 4 at Sections making it virtually impossible to outscore them. BV spread at CVC Champs was 23 seconds, between 16:52 and 17:15, making them the only team of the other hopefuls to have a 5th man knocking on the door of sub 17. Woodcreek and Vacaville have been solid performers all season. Look for them to take the final berths. Unfortunately, for former D3 powerhouse El Camino, D2 is just too tough and even though frontrunner Chris Kigar will give them a very low score, their 4th and 5th scorers are just too far out of the picture. Rocklin and Ponderosa share a similar fate. This division is just TOO tough and 3 defintely deserving teams will not get a chance to compete at the State Meet. 

Individual winner prediction: Kigar (EC) is unbeatable in the SJS. Look for something in the 15:20's. German's course record could face it's first legitimate threat but pretty unlikely to fall.  

Division 3 (3 berths)
1. Sonora
2. Placer
3. El Dorado
4. Vista Del Lago
5. Sierra

Notes: We've got ourselves some excitement in D3. Sonora looks great after League champs but so does Placer. Their spreads are nearly identical. They both looked locked in for the state meet. El Dorado is looking good too though so if they can move up their front group there could be a shift in the order. 

Individual winner prediction: Finkbeiner (Placer) vs Klein (Son). Too close to call. 

9 comments:

SJS Fan said...

Coach Jay Chimes in with a SOLID break down of the SJS. In total agreement here with the exception of Kigar challenging Germans record. Don't get me wrong, Kigar is fast, but not German fast. Great work Coach Jay.
SJS Fan.

Anonymous said...

Kigar has the only "legitimate" chance of *challenging* German's 15:03. Kigar ran 15:46 way back in late September. More fitness, more focus, he could very well drop another 20-25 seconds... 15:20-25??. Still a far cry from German, but chances are this will be the only time we will see someone give it a go from the SJS for quite a while (I'm guessing).

I apologize for not getting into D4-5. I know we got some great athletes there but it's just hard to follow (I don't live in the SJS anymore)

-J

URFasterThanMe said...

Thanks Coach Jay.

D1 right on. Davis and OR are 1-2 for sure. Sorry Jesuit, they are just too tough. Lincoln(s) and McClatchy and Nevada Union having good years too.

D2 is even tougher this year than usual. Del Campo is a lock for top slot. After that it will be very interesting and it is close enough that anything can happen. After DC there are 5 more teams that have 5 runners under 17:00, all with tight spreads. And then there are 2 teams without strong packs but they have strong front runners.

D2 I put Del Campo first. Then Bella Vista and Woodcreek fighting for second and third. Then Rocklin and Fairfield and Vacaville fighting for the fourth and last spot to State. Then El Camino and Ponderosa sending their front runners to state. Too close to call who goes to State with any confidence but I predict (1) Del Campo and (2) Woodcreek and (3) Bella Vista and (4) Rocklin with individuals from El Camino and Ponderosa and Fairfield.

Tough luck for some very good teams in D1 and D2 this year no matter what happens.

Kigar wins D2, he is best runner in SJS, maybe in Norcal. Halsted wins D1 if healthy.

Anonymous said...

Hey..what about the ladies??

D1 - Granite Bay and Oak Ridge will be going to state from this division. St. Franicis stays home this year. I'm predicting an upset at Sections with Oak Ridge topping Granite Bay by a few places.

D2 - Woodcreek will dominate again. Bella Vista comes out of nowhere this year with 4 sophs and 2 juniors and really changes the mix. Fresh off a CVC Championship over Del Campo and Oakmont, I have to give them a spot at State. My predictions in this division are Woodcreek, Del Oro, Bella Vista taking the state spots, with Ponderosa, Rocklin, Del Campo and Oakmont all right there. It will be a dogfight for the 3rd spot.

D3 - Vista Del Lago will dominate and do well at state in this division. Would have been nice to see Del Oro stay here.

Thats it.

Anonymous said...

There are 5 other teams besides DC with 5 runners under 17 @ Willow Hills. Where are those results? So far no team has 5 runners all under 17 @ Willow Hills. DC and BV have the best shot. Incidentally, take all times run at Willow Hills this year of the top 7 D2 teams, minus likely Fairfield... finishing order is DC, BV, Pondo, EC, Vaca, Rock, WC.... VERY INTERESTING. Woodcreek could either finish 7th or 2nd... this race is going to be INSANE. Better be there to watch it!!
-J

Anonymous said...

Auburn-Loomis Love: DO & Placer Girls 2010 Section Champs!

dannyd said...

You have no idea what you are talking about. Where is Cosumnes Oaks? Christian Brothers?

URFasterThanMe said...

Wow, URFasterThanMe sure made some great predictions. LOL. Gotta gloat when you get them right cause it's a crap shoot and usually you'll get them wrong. =)

SJS Fan said...

Calling Del Campo a lock may have been an understatement, they were clearly the best team. Del Campo dominated the D2 race going 2-4-5-12-17 and going head to head would have beat the D1 winner, Davis as well.