Monday, November 12, 2012

North Coast Section (NCS) Rankings (11/8/12)

LAST CALL FOR COMMENTS...Let's hear them...this is what I have for rankings at this point.

Division I Boys
1.  De La Salle HS
2.  Amador Valley HS
3.  San Ramon Valley HS
4.  Granada HS
5.  Santa Rosa HS

Division I Girls
1.  Granada HS
2.  Amador Valley HS
3.  Monte Vista HS
4.  San Ramon Valley HS
5.  Berkeley HS

Division II Boys
1.  Maria Carrillo HS
2.  Alameda HS
3.  Livermore HS
4.  College Park HS
5.  Dougherty Valley HS/Ukiah HS
Wildcards:  Casa Grande, Clayton Valley, Dublin

Division II Girls
1.  Maria Carrillo HS
2.  College Park HS
3.  Casa Grande HS
4.  Alameda HS
5.  Washington HS
Wilcard:  Livermore HS

Division III Boys
1.  Campolindo HS
2.  Bishop O'Dowd School
3.  Acalanes HS
4.  Miramonte HS
5.  Redwood HS
Wildcard:  Northgate HS, Petaluma HS

Division III Girls
1.  Las Lomas HS
2.  Campolindo HS
3.  Acalanes HS
4.  Redwood HS
5.  Miramonte HS
Wildcard:   Bishop O'Dowd School

Division IV Boys
1.  Piner HS
2.  Sir Francis Drake HS
3.  San Rafael HS
4.  St. Mary's Berkeley School
5.  El Molino HS

Division IV Girls
1.  Arcata HS
2.  St. Mary's Berkeley School
3.  Sir Francis Drake HS
4.  Piner HS
5.  Piedmont HS

Division V Boys
1.  St. Joseph Notre Dame
2.  Sonoma Academy School
3.  Athenian School
4.  Lick Wilmerding
5.  University HS
6.  Marin Academy School

Division V Girls
1.  University HS
2.  Branson School
3.  Lick Wilmerding HS
4.  College Prep School
5.  Convent
6.  Marin Academy School
Wilcard:  Athenian HS

108 comments:

Coach Kyle said...

Boys and Girls D1 is spot on still I would say. With practically all of the teams ranked in that division coming from the EBAL, it will be easier to rank them more accurately for the post-season after the EBAL Championships next Saturday.

Anonymous said...

D2 Boys - For what it is worth, Casa Grande defeated Ukiah in their league meet this week.

Anonymous said...

EBAL Championships are on Friday this year.

Coach Kyle said...

My mistake, Friday*

Anonymous said...

Girls Div IV piedmont before SMB? Mt.Sac Piedmont 1.58+ & SMB 1.43+ unless Piedmont ran second team in race #32.

Anonymous said...

In Div 3 girls, it appears Campo is ready to move into the top 5 after their performance at DFAL meet. Las Lomas will probably strengthen their hold with the return of two runners (JV winner and F/S runner up @ DFAL meet).

Anonymous said...

"D2 Boys - For what it is worth, Casa Grande defeated Ukiah in their league meet this week."

yeah - this what it's worth:
1) Clayton Valley should be #5 in D2 ahead of both Casa and Ukiah.
2) Ukiah will still beat Casa at NCS because Holden's #1 means much more than in a dual meet, and
3) NCS D2 is not a very strong division this year...

Anonymous said...

In Division V Girls, looks like Convent beat Marin Academy at BCL West #3 on Wednesday. Otherwise that ranking looks about right.

Anonymous said...

I think we're ready for individual rankings by division albert

Anonymous said...

For D2 Boys, Livermore beat Dublin at Farmers. Livermore has a really strong top 3, and should have 4, but even if Nick Trebes doesn't return they should be considered.

Anonymous said...

dv 5 boys- Lick beat University and Marin Academy in dual bcl meets

Albert Caruana said...

Thank you. Updated.

Anonymous said...

Piner ahead of Drake, really. they will be lucky to get third. Piner's 4th and 5th runners are weak and will hurt them at NCS. Just think that there high ranking is mostly based on there third place finish last year in D-3. gone is Luis Luna and the core of the team.

Anonymous said...

The race between SRV and Amador for the 2nd state meet qualifying spot looks to be extremely close.

It will almost certainly hinge on the #4 & #5 from both teams.

Anonymous said...

SRV can put 2 in font of Amador's #1 but Amador has such a small gap between their 2-7 that theres a good chance they can put 7 in front of SRVs #4.

ChrisC said...

Saw De La Salle D1 Boys working the Hayward course last weekend..they were all business. The SRV Amador Valley face-off should be exciting.

In Boys D2 curious about people's thoughts of College Park and Livermore. But I have no doubt that, if each are complete, Alameda and Maria Carrillo will battle for the top spot and produce solid team times. These two were 4th and 5th at Stanford D2 with only 4 points seperating them.

Anonymous said...

EBAL Finals didnt go at all according to these rankings on the boys side............

Anonymous said...

These rankings were released before EBAL finals took place, so in a sense, you are right.

Albert Caruana said...

5 points separated the top 3 boys' teams. Let's see what happens at NCS.

Anonymous said...

it's a shame D1 only sends 2 teams. DLS, SRV, and AV are all pretty interchangeable.

Albert Caruana said...

No different than any other year. The margin of error is very small when only two teams make state. Until we have teams from NCS finishing in the top 10 at state, the number of state meet qualifiers in Division I is not going to change.

NCSfanboy said...

I think all 3 of those teams have good potential for top 10.

Andrew said...

yeah, Albert, your D1 rankings were way off for EBAL! Santa Rosa was nowhere near 5th!

But now we have a little less than two weeks to prepare for the meet all these rankings are for.

Anonymous said...

On the boys' side, looks like DIII will be the deepest and most competitive race this year.

Albert Caruana said...

It usually is the deepest division although this year you can make a case for either Division V boys or girls as the deepest considering 5 teams in boys and 6 girls teams will advance to the state meet.

So here is another question. What is the team (boys or girls) that you think is the biggest lock to win NCS?

Anonymous said...

Idk about team wise, but I think Jackson Crose and Patrick Leary of Livermore will be able to do well in the d2 race after placing 4th and 5th at ebal.

Anonymous said...

On all the Ebal comments i think if Blair Hurlock of de la salle had ran then they would of gone more according to the ebal standings

Anonymous said...

Regarding a lock to win: I'd be tempted to say Las Lomas in D3, since the rankings look like a DFAL meet and LL has won all three of those meets. However, the way Campo is coming on can't say LL is lead pipe cinch. Acalanes also has a good first three runners.

JimS

Eballer said...

I think the D1 boys rankings are spot-on. DLS with Hurlock should move on just fine, as will the pack-running Amador boys. San Ramon will probably put through Hanze and perhaps Wilke as individuals, but their scorers start to drop off pretty quickly after Intravia. Hoping to see DeVries healthy and strong for track.

NCSfanboy said...

I think DLS, SRV, and Amador are going in planning to win the D1 race. Also, with most of the top 15 individuals in the D1 boys race most likely coming from the EBAL teams in question, NCS has become personal.

Anonymous said...

Campo has to be careful on the guys side... Acalanes looks strong and miramonte wasn't running reed. On the girls side I think its going to be a battle for anyone to challenge las lomas, but they did only win dfals by 5 points

Anonymous said...

Is Hurlock back? Is DeVries back for NCS? Will McKinnon run for AV? each of those 3 teams have questions for NCS. Any answers??

Albert Caruana said...

As best I know, Hurlock is a possibility for NCS, Devries is done for the season and I have not heard about McKinnon.

Coach Kyle said...

Devries is out for the season. McKinnon is perfectly healthy and will run at NCS. Hurlock's status is unknown.

That Guy said...

D4 Piner #1? It looks to me that they were pretty exposed at their league finals last week. 1 and 2 are solid, who know what you are going to get out of 3, but most concerning is 4 and 5 are off the charts. How can you win a championship meet when you lose big points with your 4 and 5?

Anonymous said...

Is Dillon Read Of miramonte gonna race at NCS? Where was he at DFALS?

Anonymous said...

McKinnon for AV will add another person to that pack of theirs

Andrew said...

^well technically, it also takes someone out...unless we can run with 8 at NCS now? Or this is a special clause that Amador is evoking? :P

Albert Caruana said...

Amador Valley ran 6 at their league finals.

Nils said...

Just saying, there are teams that won't peak until *after* the sectional meets- you won't have seen the full potential of all their runners because they've been able to hold back. I'm really looking forward to the NCS meet, though!

Anonymous said...

Why is O'Dowd ranked #2 in DIII?

Albert Caruana said...

Did you see their league results?

Anonymous said...

But they don't have a good 4 or 5 runner to back up their top two.

Defender of Facts, Hammer of the Ignorant said...

@ Anonymous Bishop O'Dowd Basher
You are simply ignorant in saying that O'Dowd does not have a good 4 and 5 guy. Their 4-5 guys (twin brothers it appears) ran 16.04 and 16.20 at WACCs. At last year's NCS meet this ranks their 4 guy as the second best 4th man in the section. And their 5th man would be 4th best in section. So Mr. Anonymous next time you go criticize a runner, you better be right.

Karsten said...

@ Anonymous 9:40
Explain yourself.

John Rankr said...

Nils,

I might be mistaken but these are the rankings heading into the meet... so *BEFORE* sections.

I have never really understood what people mean by "holding" back? Do you mean "training through?" Are teams really not going to have their guys run 100%? Or do you mean the top runner will shut it down once victory is secure?

Seems like a silly statement. You never know who won't make it to the finish line and you need to run your best in the section meet. I'm pretty sure whoever toes the line in college they run their best in every raceld you teach a kid to go 80%?

But that is just me.

Anonymous said...

Dillon of Miramonte hasn't raced the last few meets. it looks like he's out for the season

Albert Caruana said...

No way are there any teams training through NCS. I can think of one team that could perhaps do that but for those teams vying for a section team championship, they need to be rested and ready to race on the 17th.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the "Bishop O'Dowd Basher", they just simply aren't deep enough. They weren't even able to run 7 at the WACC Championship. Their 4 and 5 guys are too inexperienced and they may have a nice 1 and 2 but they can't pull the team by themselves.

Nils said...

John Rankr,

If you know your team is going to win your league, you simply don't need to run at 100% just to go on to the next level and risk injury, overstraining, and overtraining. Not sure what exactly "training through" means.

Yes, the section meet is a different animal, but if haven't already peaked, you will have something left after it for State even when you go all-out at Secion. Perhaps "holding back" was not the best choice of words to describe "not peaking" or "having something left".

Albert, I may be thinking of that one team that can train through NCS. We shall see. I don't want to jinx anyone by saying more! :)

Andrew said...

for those attacking O'Dowd, how about you say who you think should be ahead of them and why?

I'm not sure what's up with their two guys who could fill out their top 7 (Downs or Siow), but neither finished the race at WACCs (or started, I didn't count at the start line). But if one of them comes back for NCS, they've got a guy who can run up their with #4 and #5 again if healthy.

and for all the D1 Boys talk about EBAL dominating is well-deserved for that super strong league, let's not forget what happened last year with that incredibly slow start and the race Santa Rosa managed to have. Things happen at these meets, especially when there is such little margin for error and high stakes on the line like in D1.

By the way, for the D1 girls individual race -obviously Pianin is far and away the frontrunner. But their will be a huge pack either with her for a long time or close behind for the whole race - McCandless, Starn, Gong, Abdo, Bayliss, White, Anthony, Perrin, Agustin (although where was she at MVAL finals?), etc

Anonymous said...

D2 boys- Well casa did beat ukiah in the dual meet, but ukiah is a tough team this year. Especially with their key asset-paul holden. Holden is looking strong this year and i expect him, along with the rest of ukaih, to have a big race at ncs. They have a good looking, up-and-coming team and im no expert but i think ukiah says "hello state" this year.

Anonymous said...

i would like to add to the comment about D2 boys made at 6:58 pm. casa did beat ukaih at the tri meet(by 3 points) but if you look at the scores from the stanford invitational and the nbl finals, ukaih beat casa grande and at nbl's it was by a considerable amount.

Anonymous said...

i see that there has been some talk on d2 boys. i have been following the teams in question closely and i have come up with this: 1. Maria Carillo
2. Alameda
3. Ukiah
4. Dublin
5. College Park
6. Casa Grande
7. Clayton Valley
i have also concluded that if there is to be any upsets in these standings, it is that ukiah has a chance at alameda

NCSfanboy said...

Agreed about the D1 girls race: the race for 2nd is going to be brutal

Anonymous said...

I am curious...how will livermore do in d2 boys? Does anyone know??

Anonymous said...

Agustin pulled a hip muscle during MVAL finals and DNFed.

Anonymous 8:56 pm - what makes you rank Dublin above College Park? And Dougherty beat Dublin at DFAL finals. Also note that Livermore boys have a really strong 1 and 2 and they beat Granada at EBAL finals. Granada is ranked over Santa Rosa and Santa Rosa beat Ukiah at NBL finals.

Anonymous said...

college park may beat dublin. looking at their times i see that they are very close. dublins 2&3 are very close to dougherty's 2 but i think dublins times are slighly faster with each runner. and i wasnt sure about livermore, that post was more of a suggestion to see what others think. i think its safe to say that carillo and alameda will battle for first right?

Anonymous said...

for D2 boys, i can see Livermore's top 3 finishing in top 15, then #4 and #5 in the 40-50 range - that puts their team score in the low hundreds. That might be good enough to get 2nd ahead of Alameda.

Don't see Ukiah finishing better than 4th- probably 6th (College Park, DV, Ukiah, CV all about the same - will come down to whose #4 and #5's have the inspired performances)

King BDB said...

Ukiah beat college park, casa grande, clayton valley, and dougherty valley at Stanford. It will be close, but comparing ukiah and dublin i find that ukiah's #6 might even be up with up with dublin, college park, and dougherty valley's #4 and #5's

Anonymous said...

Who is the team that you think could train through NCS Albert?

Albert Caruana said...

I think the Arcata girls could train right through the NCS meet and just focus on the state meet.

Anonymous said...

A note, Alameda was missing Cameron Tu, their top runner at Stanford, at their league championships. If he's back, he'll still be in the mix of things, and should be one of Alameda's top runners

Anonymous said...

In ranking DLS #1, I guess your assuming the Blair Hurlock's foot injury (pre-fracture stress injury) is healed and that he runs at NCS.

Albert Caruana said...

Blair Hurlock is out and not entered in the meet.

Anonymous said...

I think thatnwithout hurlock DLSmisnnotnnumber 1 anymore. Look at last weeks league results.

Anonymous said...

DII this year seems to be quite competitive, having tons of teams around the same level. Maria Carillo has a solid first imo, however, and Alameda's second seems pretty solid as well. However, the last spot for State seems up for grabs, and depending on the day and how well Livermore can push their 4-5 closer to the front can mean the difference. I have high promises for Crose, who has been running very fast times this year.

Peter Brewer said...

Albert:

Did you ever get any results from the Humboldt-Del Norte League?

Peter

Albert Caruana said...

I did. Let me post them. The only league not accounted for is the BVAL.

Jos Jos said...

I think the D2 boys race will be a great one. I expect that the runners will be anxiously waiting at the end of the race until the the very last second when the results finally come up.

NCSfanboy said...

Without Hurlock, i'd rank Amador Valley over DeLaSalle. However, the results at the league meet were extremely close so it could go either way with SRV still up there. D1 without Hurlock for DLS simply means that the D1 race will be a blood bath between DLS, AV, and SRV. Advantage: Amador with their strong 7-man pack.

Anonymous said...

If I remember correctly, one of BODs runners at League dropped out because a car slightly hit him during the race (not kidding).

Anonymous said...

Who are O'Dowd's 4 and 5 guy anyways? Are they any good?

Anonymous said...

@1:43,
Get some sleep.

Anonymous said...

DeLaSalle and SRV both have a couple front runners that usually finish in front of Amador's #1

NCSftw said...

D5 boys- Marin Academy seems to have dropped off the radar since the beginning of the season... And Sonoma Academy has improved dramatically
D1 boys- SRV has been kinda under the radar in the debate over NCS. They're my pick to win it since Blair Hurlock isn't running.
D1 girls- Monte Vista has a great group of young girls and are a force to be reckoned with now and for a few years

4th Round said...

Ukiah????? What does everyone think about ukiah? Because i think that they might be going to state. If their #4 and #5 push up, i think they might be a force to ve reckoned with. What do you guys think?

Anonymous said...

Amador>SRV, disregarding DLS. At the EBAL league finals, DLS and Amador were both missing members of their top 7 (Hurlock/McKinnon). SRV was running at full strength.

Anonymous said...

wheres all the trash talk??? this thread was gnarly back in 2010.

Anonymous said...

Ukiah needs to spend less time on this forum and more time running

Albert Caruana said...

I think it's going to be a great meet on Saturday. So many wide open divisions. We are going to see a lot of excited teams when they hear they just win NCS.

Can't wait!

Anonymous said...

SRV ran really well at Shadow Cliff - I believe a best ever as a team. Its a great group that has clearly worked hard and improved all year. However, its hard to say they are at full strength with DeVries watching in street clothes.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, my mistake. I meant that the team SRV ran at shaow cliffs is the same team they'll run at NCS.

Anonymous said...

LOCK: SJND Boys in DV.

WACC Runner said...

Regarding the depth of O'Dowd.....Bishop O'Dowd's 4 and 5 at WACC finals were the Burke twins who ran 16:04 and 16:20 on the Hayward course. They also have two other runners in this range who didn't finish( perhaps didn't start either) the league finals race. They have a very strong 4-7 pack and should compete with the other D3 powerhouses

Andrew said...

I think its about time to bring up the individual talk!

Without Hurlock, who is the favorite in D1 boys?

After Pianin, what's the order going to be in D1 girls?

Holden may be the favorite, but can Nolan Petersen surprise him? What about Jackson Crose, Ryan Anderson, and Duc Nguyen?

Moffett vs Natoli + Thigpen vs Anex + Hernandez vs Stuscavage vs Kennedy in D2 Girls

I have no clue who the individual favorite is in D3 girls...one of the Las Lomas pack? one of the Acalanes ladies?

D3 Boys - Hanson vs Stalters vs Hamilton + Melendez vs Huxham vs Wang vs Campo

D4 Boys - Lawson vs Reyes and Silva

D4 Girls - Pigg vs Moore

D5 Boys - Arias vs Clark vs Reinhart and Kinney

D5 Girls - After Maxwell, Callan vs who?

who is going to get those individual state spots?

Albert Caruana said...

All very good questions Andrew. You can find out my thoughts in the preview article in Saturday's meet program. I think you have most of the contenders on the individual side. The question is who will be the biggest surprise like Michael Tomasi of Santa Rosa taking the Division I race last year.

Anonymous said...

Odowd shows up on cross country express threads, but never during post season.

Anonymous said...

SJND is a heavy favorite, is there even a possible upset? if so who and how? The Murphy brothers are a powerful 3-4. I'd say their team is better than it was last year.

Alameda High can beat Carillo with Tu, but not without.

Campo has shown up at NCS year, after year, after year. I doubt 2012 will be any different.

Without Hurlock I think Amador's pack will get the job done.



Anonymous said...

I've heard that Read is going to run for Miramonte. If this is the case, look for Miramonte to pull an upset over O'Dowd or Acalanes, especially with Hanson as the individual favorite.

Anonymous said...

If Read runs then they may be able to pull of an ncs title..

CCY said...

D3 boys individual race looks to be the best of the day. 5 or 6 guys who are all good enough to take it. We know Golta, Hanson, Slaters, and Huxham will all be there. What ever happened to Douglas of Petaluma? He raced good early on beat Hanson at Nike and barley lost to him at Stanford beating Huxham in the process. havent seen much results on him this year. Did He train through league? whats going on with him?

Anonymous said...

Ryan Douglas ran a 15:14 at his league finals. Looks like he's doing OK.

Anonymous said...

I think what would be interesting and informative would be if someone took the results from the DFAL championship and input Read from Miramonte near where he had been running earlier. What would that do?

hank said...

That was easy, I inserted Read into the DFAL Finals right in front of Hathaway whom he had beaten by one spot at the DFAL #1 meet and re-ran the scores. Miramonte & Campo tie for 1st with 47 points each but Campo wins on the 6th man TB (18th Vs 31st).

hank

Anonymous said...

Actually, the BOD runner that dropped wasn't hit by a car... he got stung by 5 bees and stopped running. (im not kidding)

Anonymous said...

if it rains on saturday
all bets are off, i hope to god that it isn't a repeat of 2 years ago. 80% chance of rain on friday, and 60% chance on saturday.

I think Holden is the clear favorite, Petersen and Douglas should battle for second.

Maria Carillo appears to be a favorite, but i wouldn't place them that far ahead of Alameda yet.

Miramonte will be very good if Read is back AND at full strenght

Anonymous said...

the BOD runner stopped running because of bee stings? hmm...........................

Albert Caruana said...

We were at the Farmer Invitational in September and I had a couple of athletes get stung as well on the that course. Hopefully we won't have any stings on Saturday.

Anonymous said...

They'll have to be water bees. It's supposed to rain a lot between now and then. Anyone know how well the Hayward course sheds water? I don't remember it being in great shape when it rained a couple of years ago.

Anonymous said...

O'dowd's #4 at Mt. Sac is out.

Anonymous said...

There probably won't be a lot of PRs Saturday; just kids trying not to slip and fall. I remember parts of the course being a mud-pit a couple of years ago as well.

Albert Caruana said...

It will be wet for everybody. Unfortunate if it rains but I will take rain any day over 90+ temperatures.

Anonymous said...

the course was pretty muddy in spots yesterday - before it started raining!

Anonymous said...

Time, to shut up and run!

Nils said...

I'm just glad my favorite team is in Div V. The later races are going to be a mud-slog, I'm afraid.

Anonymous said...

Yes to rain over heat! that's why we live in northern california! Go Pilots!

Andrew said...

Let the games begin!

Good luck to everyone tomorrow! May we all be safe in the mud.