Tuesday, June 04, 2013

Coming up next...

Pre-season cross country rankings starting with the North Coast Section.  Until they are posted, feel free to comment on the upcoming season.  Who are the favorites in the different divisions?  Who will be the top runners (boys and girls) in the fall?  Who are the top 10 runners (boys and girls) in NCS?  Top 10 teams overall?  Who are the team favorites in each division?  Who will contend for the coveted state meet spots?  Just as an FYI, the amount of teams that do qualify to the state meet will remain the same except for the Division II girls who I believe will only have 2 teams qualify to the state meet.

Here are the NCS Divisions for 2013.  The teams that are in a different division than last season are in bold.

Let's hear your thoughts.


Anonymous said...

Are any teams moving up or down divisions?

Anonymous said...

The formula for state qualifying is broken. Southern schools get more teams plus have larger enrollments for schools competing in D2-D4. Then when the smaller schools with fewer team spots don't get in the top 10 you take more spots from them. The rich get richer.

Anonymous said...

-state champ
-runs balls to the wall in championship season
-414 and 916
-hard to beat the longer the distance
-1506 mt sac
-most talented in the section
-413 mile
-ncs champ
-fast on the track
-state champ
-talented AF

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

"The formula for state qualifying is broken. Southern schools get more teams plus have larger enrollments for schools competing in D2-D4. Then when the smaller schools with fewer team spots don't get in the top 10 you take more spots from them. The rich get richer. "

You realize that each section can determine the enrollment splits for their own divisions? If NCS wanted to, they could have the exact same enrollment splits as the SS, but they choose not to in order to have better competition at the section level.

Anonymous said...

Watchs out for Schumann and Hurlock at DLS. If the Spartans' top 3 can stay healthy, Amador and SRV are gonna have their hands full.
I'm callin the upset and saying that Amador will win EBAL. They've lost a bunch of seniors, but look like they have some solid underclassmen who could step up.

Anonymous said...

Does everyone hate track or something? We just finished 1 day ago

Anonymous said...

NCS D3 Boys
3)Bishop O'Dowd
5)Las Lomas


Anonymous said...

Defender of the southern sections from the north? Boooo. Hisssss.

In all seriousness, it is not fair. But that's life. I don't understand why in track the number of qualifying spots are based solely on CBEDs while in XC there are spots given based on performance. Seems like it should be one way or another.

Just because sections have made it clear they want a fair section championship most of all doesn't change the fact the formula does not truly represent the sections and teams fairly. By your argument schools in the northern half of the state should all expand and grow. Then it would be fair right?

As I said, the rich get richer. But then again the poor should just work harder right? They are on the bottom because they are lazy!

Anonymous said...

Aidan Goltra, The King of the North!!!

Anonymous said...

Okay, c'mon. You are only young once, but you can be immature all your life. Hopefully the previous post is from someone who is still in the first category.

Anonymous said...

" while in XC there are spots given based on performance"

Not entirely. Each section has a "baseline" number of automatic entries that is constant. In fact, the baseline numbers actually shortchange the SS in terms of population. Above that, there are a number of spots "up for grabs" that are determined by recent performance. But note also that there is a maximum number that any section can have.

Anonymous said...

Northgate is in D2 this year.

Anonymous said...

D2 - Leaning towards Anderson getting the individual title but I think Cameron Tu of Alameda has almost an equal shot at it.

It might be another dogfight between Alameda and Maria Carillo with MC having an advantage.

Arsenal and the World of Football said...

I think that Alek Simpson wins D3 and Kasey Knevelbard wins D5 but the rest of the races are up in the air

Arsenal and the World of Football said...

ohh yeah i meant for state

Anonymous said...

alek simpson? theres at least 10 guys faster not to mention the returning state champion aidan goltra for d3. he ran 16:14 at state last year not even close.

Anonymous said...

First of all, Goltra will NOT win the team title with Campo, as that will take 5 talented runners, and therefore they have NO CHANCE at even top 4 places as a team, although Goltra might qualify individually.

Unfortunately, Chuck's Army returns ONE imported runner, and the Las Lomas runners are rightly upset, because Goltra chose to leave his team to join a school that has twice as many runners as any other schools in the league.

Also, Goltra only placed tenth at the state 3200 this year, and while he managed to edge Hurlock, this is GUARANTEED NOT to happen in cross country, as is evidenced by Hurlock's 4:13 mile, and back to back wins at Tri-Valley.

Also, do NOT forget Michael Wang or Fred Huxham; not only are they more likely to beat Goltra but they ran faster miles in track.

Feel free to discuss my predictions, which will inevitably be proven correct, as only a genius's could be time and time again, such as myself.

That is all.

Rod said...

Sounds like all you got is hate for Campo. No evidence to back it up. Let's go back to the 2012 State Meet. Despite a little heat, optimal conditions in Fresno. Goltra may have won the D3 title, but Campo also placed 6th in the race, highest out of all NCS teams. 2 out of 4 of the other scorers are returning too, and their consistent number three runner was out that race with an injury. Not thinking Campolindo will win the D3 NCS team title this year is one thing, but thinking they won't make it to state at all is just illogical.

Anonymous said...

Their no.3 that was out is only a junior next season too

Anonymous said...

I'm not a Campo runner and I actually want to beat them next season, but I think that they're currently the favorites for NCS next season. Or do you mean that they won't win the state title? I think it'd be very difficult for them to not place top 4 in NCS.

I'm confused with what you mean by saying that Campo isn't returning any talented runners other than Goltra. They're returning Walter Brennan, Michael Peterson, Ben Weinberg, and Will Moran. Weinberg and Moran both went sub 10 and Brennan and Peterson likely would have if they ran it this year.

Additionally, Goltra is still the favorite for NCS although I think that Huxham and Hurlock have a shot at him. Track miles don't have that much relevance on a XC course that's over three times as long, especially since Goltra didn't seriously race it. And I know for a fact that Wang won't beat him (although he's a great guy and a beast). He's a pure miler and is simply above average in XC.

Albert Caruana said...

Hurlock is in division I.

Anonymous said...

Don't know why Hurlock is relevant either. De La Salle is in Division 1

Anonymous said...

@9;41 im not sure if you've ever been to a dfal meet or actually seen Las Lomas's team because right now they have one of the largest teams in the league

Anonymous said...

is this where we can talk about how ridiculous campo is. i hear no one likes them and reading all this makes me feel like thats true

Anonymous said...

It's only this one creepy guy that hits on high school kids. And maybe a Las Lomas fan or 2.

Marty Beene said...

I don't know about the rankings, but that photo of you, Albert, is a little, um, unusual.... ;-)

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 10:41 = Chuck.

Dead give away. Rule #1 of Trolling. Less info is more. Way to much from someone "not at Campo." Found you out brother.

Anonymous said...

Could be a local DFAL kid from Acalanes or Miramonte. Can we move the discussion towards girls in the other divisions please, I feel like this has been a giant Campo debate.

Anonymous said...

Let me try to inform the uneducated, which is of course more easily said than done. However, I will make an attempt, as I am the world's expert on ceilings of athletes.

@ Rod:
You sound like a Campo athlete yourself (most likely Farvard). No, I am not "hating" on Campo athletes, simply stating the facts, of which you seem to have ignored and therefore are ignorant of the bigger picture, which only someone like me could see clearly. My suggestion: use FACTS and EVIDENCE to present an argument, rather than name-calling.

The FACT that Campo had 2 runners not compete in track for reasons unknown speaks for itself. They will be FORTUNATE to place 7th or better at NCS, and qualifying to state is out of the question, as there are teams like Redwood and Acalanes returning talented runners. And YES, track miles ABSOLUTELY have relevance to cross country, even though you may wish that it doesn't.

Only an imbecile would fail to understand the size of Las Lomas's team. While this is nice, Campo has depth in addition to arrogance, a combination not likely to create team spirit.

Anonymous said...

I think Sarah Baxter has a really decent chance at finishing top 10 at Woodward Park in November.

Albert Caruana said...

Let's please stay away from the name calling and stick to facts such as the following.

The Campolindo boys have qualified for the last 11 state championships and have won 6 NCS titles and finished 2nd three times in that same times span.

It's wishful thinking by other Division III teams to think they will not be a contender again this coming season.

John said...

Before the idiots fully take over (AKA Anonymous @ 7:36am) here are some facts on the Boys side for NCS. I'm pulling from the last NCS race so please add where appropriate (i.e. injuries, new or up and coming runners from track, etc):

SRV - returns 3
DLS - returns 7 (Hurlock was injured but ran 4:14/9:11)
Amador - returns 3
Santa Rosa - returns 4

Maria Carillo - returns 4 (Anderson defending NCS champ)
Alameda - returns 4
Livermore - returns 6
College Park - returns 5
Dublin - returns 6 (my sleeper pick)

Miramonte - returns 3
Acalanes - returns 3 (Wang and Gaskell could be the top 1-2 combo)
BOD - returns 5
Campo - returns 5 (Goltra defending NCS and State champ + 9:10 in 3200 <- this is a fact)
Redwood - returns 5
Las Lomas - returns 5 (since it's been pointed out they have such a large squad

San Rafael - returns 3
Drake - returns 4
Piner - returns 3

St Joes - returns 4 (defending state champs)
Sonoma - retuns 3
Marin - returns 6 (Reinhart defending NCS and State Champ)

Anyone missing?

Albert Caruana said...

Thank you for the list. One minor error is that Santa Rosa will be in Division II this year.

John said...

Albert - sorry for the name calling.

Here are some of the facts for the Girls side of NCS. I'm pulling from the last NCS race so please add where appropriate (i.e. injuries, new or up and coming runners from track, etc):

Granada - returns 6
Amador - returns 5
Monta Vista - returns 2 (will 800 state finalist Fuhriman run XC?)
SRV - returns 6

EBAL teams always seems to have impact freshman with impressive club/JO experience. Who are the ones to look out for this Fall?

Maria Carrillo - returns 6
College Park - returns 5
Casa Grande - returns 5
Alameda - returns 6
Livermore - returns 5

Acalanes - returns 3
Redwood - returns 4
Las Lomas - returns 7
Campo - returns 6
BOD - returns 7
Miramonte - returns 5

Arcata - returns 6 (Pigg defending NCS champ)
St Marys - returns 6
Piedmont - returns 6
Drake - returns 4

University - returns 5
Lick - returns 6
Branson - returns 6 (Maxwell defending NCS and State champ)

Anyone missing? Which teams improved during track? Who are the incoming freshman to watch?

Anonymous said...

I hate to respond to a troll (@7:36), but I'd like to clear up some facts.

Brennan actually DID participate in track, he just didn't run a 3200 this year. And Peterson did not do track because he's also a very talented swimmer. While swimming does not help you as much for XC as running does, it gives you plenty of aerobic fitness.

Redwood could very well finish ahead of Campo, but I think it's unlikely that Acalanes will. They return possibly the best combo in Wang and Gaskell, and have a very good #3 in Weber, but they have very little depth. I currently have LeClerc as their #4 who ran 4:51 in track this year and 17:42 at Clovis (In comparison, the top 5 for Campo all ran sub 17 on the same course). And their #5 is still unknown, although perhaps it will be Jared Erickson, who ran 19:35 at Clovis and didn't run track. Someone may emerge, but I think it's unlikely that Acalanes will top Campo.

Lastly, I did NOT say that track miles have no relevance. I said that they do not have that much relevance, compared to 3200s (where Goltra is superior) and XC ( where Goltra is, again, superior).

And @6:24, in case you're talking about me, I'm not a Campo athlete or Chuck. Just a Miramonte athlete who does his homework and looks at the facts

Anonymous said...

Anonymous @ 7:36:
"[you] are ignorant of the bigger picture, which only someone like me could see clearly."

You sound like an arrogant 9-year-old. Please go back to the little boys' chatroom.

Anonymous said...

piedmont girls in D4 could upset arcata. they return every single runner (all scorers were underclassmen in 2012), and their number 1, sophia mills, ran 5:09 at the end of track.

Andrew said...

well, @10:16, this is an NCS thread...Albert will put up the CCS one soon I'm sure and you can go crazy on that one.

To the person who said to watch out for DLS if their top 3 healthy, that can be said for any team. As someone else posted later, DLS returns their top 7 basically. I think they are the clear favorites. Both Amador Valley and San Ramon Valley lost 4 of their top 7. People have spoken of some great up and coming talent, of which I have not looked into yet, but I think they are next two. James Logan also looks quite dangerous.

In girls D1, its still Granada. Monte Vista and Amador have young cores coming up after losing a lot to graduation. SRV and Castro Valley have a lot returning and I think are poised to take advantage.

I don't want to get into that D3 argument. The other divisions look pretty clear-cut.

Good luck and good health in your training.

Nils said...

In Div V, SJND boys have lost one top senior but gained two up-and-coming freshmen and one rising junior who has run mostly JV for 2 years but has steadily improved, so their prospects remain good.

SJND girls have steadily improved their depth, but their super-good volleyball team draws off a lot of top athletes, so we'll have to just see how they do.

Anonymous said...

Andrew, there is an amazing incoming freshman who ran a 4:37 mile from CYO track this May. I'm not sure if he's going to SRV or Cal high. 4 years ago at the CYO Diocese 1600 championship, we had Gabe Arias, Blair Hurlock, Cody Mayer, and Aidan Goltra all run the same championship race when they were 8th graders. 3 of them broke the existing record! This incoming freshman is way faster than them so watch out EBAL!

Anonymous said...

Freshmen will impact the races particularly with the girls. Who are some of the impact freshmen this coming XC year? Would be nice to start a thread on this!

Anonymous said...

My Picks:

CCS Div 1 Boys:
1. Bellarmine
2. Carlmont - Lucas Matison transfered to Paly
3. Homestead

CCS Div 2 Boys:
1. Los Altos
2. Saint Francis
3. Lynbrook
4. Los Gatos

CCS Div 3 Boys: (St. Ignatius moves up to D2)
1. Aptos
2. Saratoga

CCS Div 4 Boys:
1. Seaside
2. Scotts Valley
3. Half Moon Bay

CCS Div 5 Boys:
1. Woodside Priory
2. Crystal Springs Upland

CCS Div 1 Girls:
1. Salinas
2. Gunn
3. Palo Alto
4. Menlo Atherton
5. Carlmont

CCS Div 2 Girls:
1. Saint Ignatius (moves up from D3)
2. Archbishop Mitty
3. Los Altos
4. Los Gatos
5. Mountain View

CCS Div 3 Girls:
1. Aptos
2. Valley Christian
3. Santa Cruz

CCS Div 4 Girls:
1. San Lorenzo Valley
2. Half Moon Bay
3. Scotts Valley

CCS Div 5 Girls:
1. Santa Catalina
2. Crystal Springs Upland

Anonymous said...

CCS calm down, you'll have a thread to post on soon enough i'm sure. I don't know of any impact freshmen but I do know that the Amador girls will likely have the addition of Anika Greene (sp?) who missed her Freshman XC and Track season due to an injury she sustained at JOs last summer. If she's healthy she could help fill in the gap left by the graduation of Pianin.

Anonymous said...

Girls from Monta Vista (CCS) will win the title by the looks of Freshman coming in.

Anonymous said...

Here are the girls (http://www.fordtiming.com/Results/2012/JOAQUIN/7TH8THGIRLS.HTM) and guys (http://www.fordtiming.com/Results/2012/JOAQUIN/7TH8THBOYS.HTM) results for a Joaquin Moraga XC meet.

And here are the results for the Stanley Invitational: http://www.fordtiming.com/Results/2013/STANLEY/Results.htm. The top 1600 runner for the guys(Zack Mintz of Seven Hills) has a PR of 5:04, while the top 1600 runner for the girls(Jesse Carlin of Stanley) has a PR of 5:53.

Anonymous said...

NCS D 3 Boys:

1. Bishop O'Dowd
2. Campolindo
3. Miramonte
4. Redwood
5. Acalanes

NCS D 3 Girls:

1. Campolindo
2. Bishop O'Dowd
3. Miramonte
4. Las Lomas

Anonymous said...

SJND is going to run train on NCS d5 like they have for the last two years. Anyone see arias place 4th in the ncs 3200? I bet few people saw that coming. Everyone get ready for an SJND NCS dynasty and back to back state titles for the pilots.

Anonymous said...

cheep cheep cheep

Anonymous said...

@ 2:21, I'm gonna have to disagree with you about St Ignatius.. I think top 3 will stil be Mitty, Mt View and Los Altos, but the spartans & eagles will be fighting for that second place at ccs

Anonymous said...

SJND is losing 3 seniors but are reloading with some great new freshman talents lets see California coach of the. Year Tony Fong work some magic

Anonymous said...

run train? really?!

Anonymous said...

looking forward to a great season this year - sjnd boys will dominate d5

Anonymous said...



Anonymous said...

For predictions- just look at last years results, remove the 12th graders and then speculate on transfers and impact freshman. Rumor has it, we will also have some African Adoptees in NCS in 2013.

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