NCS Division IV Pre-Season Rankings

As one Division IV coach stated, "Year in and year out, forecasting this division proves to be quite difficult because of the parity that exists between the perennial top dogs." I agree with that statement wholeheartedly yet here I am trying to make sense of this upcoming season. I am not sure if I can pick a favorite with conviction (especially on the boys side) but I can point out the top teams and individuals.

Over the past 8 years, the most successful team has been St. Mary's Berkeley coached by former Cal All-American and school record holder high jumper, Jeff Rogers. They won NCS titles in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2013. The next best team has been San Rafael coached by Jason Jacobson who has led his teams to two NCS titles in 2010 and 2012 and his 2010 team also won the California state meet. I think both teams will find a way to be competitive this year but at this point other teams appear to be just a step above both teams.

This is a tough one to pick (I said that already right?) but at this point I will go with McKinleyville. This may be a surprise but they return all 6 of their competitors from last year's NCS meet. Their coach, Jason Lewis, has done a nice job rebuilding that program and coaching Division IV defending champion, Morgin Coonfield. They will be led by senior John Milender (4:35.05/10:19.45) who finished in 16th place at last year's NCS meet. San Rafael, after last year's 2nd place finish, will be led by individual favorite, Nassim Kabbara (4:20.56/9:50.80). This deep division offers many other contenders for those elusive four state meet berths. Arcata returns 5 out of 7 and improved nicely during the track and field season. They will be led by Brandon Kelsey (4:35.09/9:39.12) and Kellen O'Neill (4:35.33/9:51.66). Sir Francis Drake could be another dangerous team with 5 out of 7 returning from last year and that doesn't include Brody Barkan (1:59.09 although did run 1:57.88 in previous season) and Nick Harris (2:03.12). Should they decide to run cross country this coming season, coach Bill Taylor will have quite a group to help secure their first section title since 2000. Piner will also return 5 out of their top 7 and will be paced by junior, Eduardo Calderon (16:16 at 2013 NCS MOC). St. Mary's Berkeley only returns 2 out of their 7 from last year's championship team but history has proven that they reload and will be competitive once again.

The race for the individual title will be between the top returner Nassim Kabbara of San Rafael and impressive rising sophomore, El Molino's Brian Schulz who were separated by only 5 seconds at last year's NCS MOC meet. They will also be challenged by Brian Kelsey of Arcata, Eduardo Calderon of Piner, Zach Bibeault (4:37.07) of Terra Linda and Brady Lane (4:32.86/10:12.36) of El Molino.

Top 5 individual runners returning from last year's NCS MOC XC meet:
Nassim Kabbara (2) San Rafael 15:53
Brian Schulz (5) El Molino 15:58
Brandon Kelsey (6) Arcata 16:06
Eduardo Calderon (9) Piner 16:16
Zach Bibeault (10) Terra Linda 16:18

The girls team battle should be an interesting one as the top teams (Arcata, St. Mary's Berkeley and Piedmont) all return the majority of their runners from last season. Arcata, the 3-time defending champion, have also had success at the state meet although last year came away with a disappointing finish for them (8th place) after a 2nd place finish the year before. St. Mary's Berkeley, like their boys counterpart, have been the most consistent team in this division. They finished in 2nd place at NCS and followed that up with another top 10 finish at state (10th place). Piedmont seemed to have an off day at the NCS meet last year but they rebounded nicely at state with an NCS best 4th place team finish.

Arcata will once again be led by junior Chloe Pigg (2:26.56, 5:15.42, 11:15.34). The team will be bolstered by a trio of seniors (Zoe Ziegler, Elise Ford and Sara Davis) who have never finished lower than 1st place at Hayward HS in November. An addition of a strong freshman could make Arcata quite formidable once again. St. Mary's of Berkeley will have a new front runner with the graduation of top talent Spencer Moore. They return 5 of their top 7 from last year and will more than likely be led by senior Chloe Jenkins who ran 2:11.31 PR at the state championship after her section championship. Piedmont doesn't quite have the up front talent of Arcata and St. Mary's Berkeley but through 7, they may be the best team. Sophia Mills (5:10.94) should be their front runner once again and all the girls that competed at the state meet all return. The race for the team title should be quite close while the race for the state meet which will include the top 4 teams. The rest of the contenders will include Sir Francis Drake, Piner, San Rafael and San Marin.

The individual chase could be rather one sided with defending champion Morgin Coonfield (2:20.81, 4:58.33, 10:37.06) of McKinleyville steamrolling the field. She will be chased by Chloe Pigg from local Arcata HS. Pigg won the section title convincingly as a freshman and seems to be rebounding to form as she heads to her junior season. The rest of the contenders will include Chloe Jenkins of St. Mary's Berkeley, Michaela Barros of Fortuna, Sophia Noto of Sir Francis Drake, the Arcata duo of Zoe Ziegler and Elise Ford as well as Sophia Mills of Piedmont.

Top 5 individual runners returning from last year's NCS MOC XC meet:
 Morgin Coonfield (1) McKinleyville 17:33
Chloe Pigg (3) Arcata 18:32
Michaela Barros (4) Fortuna 18:36
Sophia Noto (5) Sir Francis Drake 18:53
Zoe Ziegler (6) Arcata 18:54

Comments are welcome. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts on this division.

CCS All-Time Top 100 State Meet Team Times

CCS All-Time Top 100 State Meet Team Times (Thanks to Bellarmine coach, Patrick McCrystle)

CCS Time Comparisons for all divisions (boys and girls) courtesy of Walt Van Zant

http://www.prepcaltrack.com/ATHLETICS/XC/2014/comparsn.htm#table10

Walt Van Zant's CCS Pre-Season Comparisons (Divisions I-V boys and Divisions I-II girls)

http://www.prepcaltrack.com/ATHLETICS/XC/2014/comparsn.htm (image thanks to webmaster extraordinaire Hank Lawson)

Now updated with all boys divisions.

North Coast section Division I Rankings by Andrew Lowe

Thanks to Berkeley HS assistant coach, Andrew Lowe for the following previews and rankings.
North Coast Section Division 1 Girls 2014 Preview & Rankings
North Coast Section Division 1 Boys 2014 Preview & Rankings

NCS Division 2 Pre-Season Rankings (Boys) by Northgate coach, Peter Brewer

North Coast Section Cross --CC-> Country Boys’ Division II 2014 Pre-Season Rankings

Top 10 returning NorCal XC runners (boys and girls)

The following are the top 10 returning runners from last year's State XC meet. I included their track and field times from this past season. Who are the runners that are not listed that you feel will break into the top 10 this coming season? Who will move up from their current position?

Boys
1) Trevor Reinhart Senior Marin Academy HS (NCS) Division V 4:20.64
2) Neilson Powless Senior Roseville HS (SJS) Division II? 
3) Chris Foster Senior Los Gatos HS (CCS) Division II 4:19.66/9:16.12
4) Kevin Lehr Junior St. Ignatius (CCS) Division III 2:00.51/4:26.84
5) Brian Song Senior Davis Sr. HS (SJS) Division I 4:19.50/9:40.04
6) Edgar Bonilla Senior King City HS (CCS) Division IV 4:18.99/9:33.69
7) Steven Sum Senior Saratoga HS (CCS) Division III 4:18.96/9:10.23
8) Colin Burke Senior Bishop O'Dowd (NCS) Division III 4:28.44/9:23.36
9) Matt Salazar Junior Casa Grande HS (NCS) Division II 4:28.77/9:32.90
10) Jackson Crose Senior Livermore HS (NCS) Division II 4:23.61/9:24.30

Girls
1) Fiona O'Keeffe Junior Davis Sr HS (SJS) Division I 4:49.04 (mile)/10:14.60
2) Kendall Derry Junior Bella Vista HS (SJS) Division II? 2:14.72/4:52.00
3) Brighie Leach Senior Campolindo HS (NCS) Division III 2:19.69/4:54.27
4) Lauren Jacob Junior Los Altos HS (CCS) Division II 5:06.42/10:45.99
5) Miranda Myers Senior St. Francis, Sacramento (SJS) Division I 5:11.41/11:11.03
6) Sofia Castiglioni Sophomore Davis Sr HS (SJS) Division I 5:02.73/10:58.50
7) Brooke Starn Junior Monte Vista HS (NCS) Division I 4:53.36/10:36.51
8) Morgin Coonfield Junior McKinleyville HS (NCS) Division IV 4:58.33/10:37.06
9) Chloe Hansel Junior Las Lomas HS (NCS) Division III 4:54.50/11:11:15
10) Megan McCandless Junior Granada HS (NCS) Division II 4:54.78/10:32.82

2014 NCS Division V Pre-Season Rankings (Boys)

Not to be outdone by their female counterparts, the NCS Division V boys also rolled at the 2013 California state cross country meet. The 5 state qualifying teams finished in 1st (St. Joseph Notre Dame), 2nd (Marin Academy), 6th (Lick-Wilmerding), 7th (Athenian) and 14th (College Prep). The also had four individuals finish in the top 10 with Trevor Reinhart in 2nd, Gabe Arias-Sheridan in 4th, James Kinney in 5th and Michael Murphy in 9th. The St. Joseph Notre Dame boys won their 2nd straight team championship after finishing 3rd in 2011. The Marin Academy boys made their first state meet podium after a 7th place finish the previous season.

The most famous alumni from St. Joseph Notre Dame is hall of fame basketball player and current New Jersey Nets Milwaukee Bucks coach, Jason Kidd. Other alumnus include Mark Curry from Hanging with Mr. Cooper fame and Damian Lillard, who only attended SJND as a sophomore but is counted as an alumni on their Wikipedia page (good for them). With SJND's XC success the past few years, you can also include Gabe Arias-Sheridan, Nick Ratto and Louis Rodriguez as significant alumnus who helped put the Pilots squarely on the XC map. Despite the graduation of those athletes, SJND remains as the best team in NCS as well as perhaps the state. They will be led this season by the Murphy twins (Michael 4:31.38/9:40.84 and Matthew 4:32.85/9:47.17) and sophomore Cooper Teare (4:32.90/9:45.66). Sophomores Gavin Hill (17:04 at Hayward) and Willie Mein (17:11 at Hayward) will be asked to step up and fill the shoes of the two departing seniors along with Jackson Sundheim who was injured last season.

Marin Academy recorded three 2nd place team finishes to conclude their 2013 XC season. They finished behind Lick-Wilmerding at the BCL West meet, behind SJND at NCS and once again behind SJND at state. They lose their #2 man James Kinney but return a comparable front three to SJND. Trevor Reinhart is one of the top Division V runners in the state with a 1st place finish in 2012 and a 2nd place finish last year. He also made his track debut last year and in limited time recorded a 4:20.64 1600m. time. Junior Henry Fleming recorded 8th, 8th and 23rd place finishes in those last three races for MA. Fellow junior Connor Montgomery was equally as instrumental in MA's success and improved this past track season with 4:35.14/9:59.01 PRs. Junior Jack Williams (17:22 at Hayward) and sophomore Dustin Decker (17:24 at Hayward) will need to take a bigger role in order for MA to continue their team's success.

The Lick-Wilmerding boys recorded their 3rd consecutive league championship after finally breaking University's string of 18 that ended in 2011. They finished in 3rd place at NCS which is their 2nd best team finish at the section meet behind their 2001 team that finished in 2nd place. Their 6th place finish at state is their best finish in school history. They will be led by seniors Steve Page (4:27.79/10:08.01) and Matt Jenkins (9:40.63). Fellow senior, James Rich (4:43.03/10:23.69) was a consistent top 5 performer last year with Logan Pierce and Zac Oji also in the mix. L-W also had a great group of freshman/sophomores who will be competing to make their top 7.

College Prep was a consistent state meet participant including a section title and 2nd place state meet finish in 2006. They didn't qualify for the state meet in 2011 and 2012 but rebounded nicely last year with a 4th place finish at the NCS meet. They will be led by junior Alex Glavin (9:43.99) who finished in 15th at NCS and 24th at state and concluded the school year with an even more impressive track season. He will have plenty of fire power behind with with senior Tristram Dodge (4:37.81/10:09.78) and junior Stephen Sloan (2:04.67/4:37.92). Trevor Soule, Andrew Vaughn and Ethan Ashby will need to close the gap with the team's front three runners to challenge the top 3 teams mentioned above.

The rest of the top team contenders will include Athenian who will be led by one of the top sophomores in the state, Dawson Reckers (4:36.94/9:40.54). They return 3 of their top 7 from last year and will need some of their younger runners to challenge for a state meet spot. University finished in the dreaded 6th position last year but will have their top runner, Ben Tracy (10:14.00) back along with 5 of their top 7. Sonoma Academy, Urban, Head Royce and Stuart Hall will all be in the mix for a top 10 finish. An interesting team will be Roseland University Prep which finished in 10th place last year with only 5 runners but all five were freshmen and sophomores and with an addition or two could place better this coming season.

The individual favorite will be senior Trevor Reinhart who had quite a season last year setting the Hayward course Division V record at 14:44 and followed that up with a 2nd place finish at the state meet. He then went on to finish in 5th place at the Footlocker West Regional and 12th place at the Footlocker national meet. He will be two time section defending champion and provided he is healthy will win once again this coming season. The chase pack should include Michael Murphy, Matthew Murphy, Dawson Reckers, Cooper Teare, Henry Fleming and Connor Montgomery. Christopher Boranian of Head Royce (4:33.19/10:16.01) finished in 10th place last year and qualified for the state meet as an individual and should not be counted out.

Division V Boys (Top 5 Advance to State)
1) St. Joseph ND-Going for 4 NCS titles in a row. Record is 7 for UHS.
2) Marin Academy-Margin may be closer with SJND.
3) Lick-Wilmerding-Deepest team in this division with solid duo up front.
4) College Prep-Much improved team following terrific track season.
5) Athenian-Program on the rise but will be dealing with a coaching change.
6) University-Addition of a couple of freshmen studs could make them dangerous.
On the bubble:  Head Royce, Roseland University Prep, Sonoma Academy, Stuart Hall, Urban

Top 5 returning individuals, (place) and 2013 NCS meet time:
Trevor Reinhart (1) Marin Academy 14:44
Michael Murphy (4) St. Joseph ND 15:30
Matthew Murphy (5) St. Joseph ND 15:30
Cooper Teare (6) St. Joseph ND 15:32
Henry Fleming (8) Marin Academy 16:02

Comments?  Who did I miss?  What can you add to my rankings?  Also feel free to link this article to your team website/facebook etc.

2014 NCS Division V Pre-Season Rankings (Girls)

The maximum number of teams in each division that can advance to the California state XC meet from each section is 7. Of course, one section dominates with the most auto team qualifiers with 7 in each division and that is the Southern Section. Ever since the inception of the state meet in 1987, I believe no other section has had 7 teams qualify to the state in any division until 2014. Following two decades of success at the state meet, 7 girls teams from the NCS MOC meet will now advance to the state meet. At last year's state meet, the 6 NCS girls' teams finished in 1st, 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th and 10th place.

The Branson School won their first cross country state championship last year after a near podium finish (4th place) the season before. They defeated Central Section's Central Valley Christian at the state meet 70-82 after a narrow loss to Lick-Wilmerding the week before by 3 points (60-63) at the NCS meet. Along with '14 grad, Julia Maxwell's 3 state individual championships, the school is certainly no stranger to state championships with 2 girls' basketball state titles (20007, 2008), 3 boys' basketball state titles (2006, 2007, 2008) and 4 girls' volleyball state titles (2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012).

The top four runners from last year's NCS meet were seniors with both Branson and Lick-Wilmerding each led by multiple seniors. This year's meet will definitely be decided by the younger runners especially the incoming freshmen. The slight favorite at this point appears to be the Lick-Wilmerding girls who won their first ever section XC title in 2013 (above). While they lose their top two runners, Molly Dicke and Andie Von Eschen, L-W is one of the largest Division V schools and has plenty of depth to continue their run of success. They will be led by sophomore Jill Reilly (5:28.34/11:46.21) and junior Maddy Nakada (2:26.87/5:26.75) and will return 5 of their top 7 runners from last season. They will be definitely challenged to repeat and a case can be made for 4-5 schools who could upend L-W and win this division.

The Branson girls will need to find a way to replace their top three graduating seniors, Julia Maxwell, Anna Harleen and Allie Williams. This season, they will be led by sophomore Ashley Delgado (2:25.33), who along with teammate Lizzie Reeves both finished in the top 15 at the NCS meet and were part of Branson's first MCAL XC championship team that preceded their state meet victory. They would have more than likely won their first XC section title but chose to rest Harleen for the state meet which turned out to be the right decision. That second place finish may have been a disappointment last year but a 2nd place finish in 2014 would definitely be considered a success.

The Convent girls had their most productive season in school history with a 3rd place finish at the BCL West final, a 3rd place finish at NCS and an even more impressive 5th place finish at the CA state meet. They will be led by senior Camilla Bykhovsky (5:22.14/11:55.38) who rebounded nicely during track season after a shortened XC season. She will be joined by junior Mae Singer (2:35.96, 19:27 and 12th at NCS), senior Sarah Selzer (5:48.66, 19:45 and 22nd at state) and 10th grader Katie Newbold (2:36.02). They will need to solidify the rest of their top 7 in order to repeat or perhaps improve their top team finishes from last season.

Following the passing of legendary coach, Jim Tracy, the University HS girls will be under a new coach (Carin Marrs). For 20 years under Tracy's tutelage, University won 15 league championships, 14 NCS titles and 10 state meet championships (a state record). During his last season, the UHS girls finished in 2nd place in the BCL West, 4th at NCS and 7th at state. This coming season, they will be led by senior Grace Euphrat-Weston (11th at BCL West meet), and sophomore Simone Jacob (2:32.56/5:35.21).

The wild card in this division will be Sonoma Academy, coached by Danny Aldridge. They finished in 10th place at last year's NCS meet with Alyssa Goody their lead runner in 8th place. She went on to finish in 13th place at the state meet with a time of 19:25. This year, she will be joined by freshman phenom, Rylee Bowen, who just ran 4:58.57 (mile), 7:11.43 (2k steeple) and 11:27.44 (2 miles) at the New Balance National meet. More on her later. She will also have a couple of freshmen teammates that are sub 21:00 5k runners. Junior Lilly Reinstein (2:27.14/5:28.43), sick during the last part of the XC season, rebounded with an excellent Track and Field season. Provided those 5 runners can all stay healthy, Sonoma Academy will definitely be in state meet contention and with some inspired running, could break into the top 3.

The rest of the contenders will be familiar ones for those that follow the NCS Division V scene. Urban HS finished in 6th place at NCS and followed that up with a 10th place finish at state. They lose their #3 runner from last year but will have the return of a healthy Molly Carleton who ran 2:18.39 at the NCS MOC track and field meet. The Athenian girls return 6 of their top 7 from last year including sophomore Grace Brown (2:22.71/5:24.91) and junior Rebecca Elliott (2:25.18/5:36.30). They will be in search of a new coach this coming season as their previous coach, Phillip Hadley, will be moving back home, north of the border. The College Prep girls may have been overlooked during University's run of 4 straight state championships, but they had 3 straight podium finishes between 2009 and 2011. They will be led once again by veteran coach, Jack Coakley and sophomore Maya Zimmerman (11th place at NCS meet). CPS finished out of the state meet qualifying positions with a 7th place finish last year but that finishing position will not exclude you from the state meet this season.

The individual winner this coming season will not be named Julia Maxwell after her 3 straight individual titles. It will also not be Lucy McCullough after her 4 straight victories preceding Maxwell. We could however have another McCullough at the top of the heap with younger sister Bevin taking a shot at adding to the family trophy case. She finished in 6th place last season at the section meet and 15th at the state meet but had an even more impressive track and field season. She recorded her season best time of 5:02.94 at the NCS MOC meet to finish in 7th place. She also ran 11:34.09 at the Class A Meet. She will need to get past Veronica Aguila of St. Joseph Notre Dame who finished just ahead of her at the section meet with a 5th place finish. McCullough will also need to contend with Sonoma Academy freshman, Rylee Bowen who has been chomping at the bit to race in high school. In fact, she has taken on collegians already and fared quite well including a victory in the Santa Clara Invitational Open Race (below). The rest of the challengers have already been mentioned with many of them looking to extend their track success to the fall season.

Division V Girls (Top 7 Advance to state)

1) Lick Wilmerding-Could win their 2nd straight section title.
2) Convent-Will look to continue last season's success with healthy Camilla Bykhovsky.
3) Branson-They will need immediate freshman help to replace top 3 graduates.
4) Sonoma Academy-They could finish higher but we will start them here.
5) Urban-A healthy Molly Carleton starts the Blue with a very low stick.
6) University-A tradition of athletic success never graduates.
7) Athenian-Best team from BCL East.

On the bubble: College Prep, Head Royce, Marin Academy

Top 5 returning individuals, (place) and 2013 NCS meet time:
Veronica Aguila (5) St. Joseph Notre Dame 18:53
Bevin McCullough (6) Marin Academy 19:03
Grace Brown (7) Athenian 19:05
Alyssa Goody (9) Sonoma Academy 19:14
Maya Zimmerman (11) College Prep 19:27

Please feel free to chime in on the rankings above. I won't be offended if you strongly disagree as the above rankings are meant to be a launching pad for conversation. Fortunately section titles and state meet berths are decided by the runners themselves. Did I miss any teams or individuals? Any other impact freshmen that we should know about?

Boys coming up next...