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Monday, January 05, 2015

2015 NCS Distance State Meet Contenders

Here is what I have so far.  Remember only top 3 qualify to the CA state Track and Field meet unless you make the 2015 At-Large Time Standards.  Additions?  Changes?  Comments?

Girls 800m.
The favorite:  Chloe Jenkins St. Mary's Berkeley
Threats:  Sarah Cella Campolindo, Annaka Green Amador Valley
Wildcards:  Heidi Fuhriman Monte Vista, Molly Carleton Urban, Jasmine Hardy Head Royce, Georgia Roden Miramonte

Boys 800m.
The favorite: Nicholas Rauch Casa Grande
Threats: David Phair College Park, Christian Monsalud James Logan
Wildcards:  Parker Lothamer Campolindo, Brody Barkan Sir Francis Drake

Girls 1600m.
The favorite:  Brooke Starn Monte Vista
Threats:  Megan McCandless Granada, Brighie Leach Campolindo, Chloe Hansel Las Lomas
Wildcards:  Glennis Murphy Redwood, Bevin McCullough Marin Academy, Mary Orders Campolindo, Kai Bohannon Liberty

Boys 1600m.
The favorite: Nicholas Rauch Casa Grande
Threats:  Trevor Reinhart Marin Academy, Nassim Kabbara San Rafael
Wildcards: Roc Johnson De La Salle, David Frisbie Kennedy-Fremont, Zach Beston Amador Valley

Girls 3200m.
The favorite:  Megan McCandless Granada
Threats:  Morgin Coonfield McKinleyville, Brighie Leach Campolindo, Toni Finnane Campolindo, Rylee Bowen Sonoma Academy
Wildcards:   Chloe Hansel Las Lomas, Mary Orders Campolindo, Brooke Starn Monte Vista, Christine Bayliss San Ramon Valley

Boys 3200m.
The favorite: Colin Burke Bishop O'Dowd
Threats:  Matt Schumann De La Salle, Jackson Crose Livermore
Wildcards:  Trevor Reinhart Marin Academy, Matt Salazar Casa Grande, Andy Ehrenberg Redwood, Brian Schultz El Molino, Cameron Gaskell Acalanes

Next:  2015 CCS Distance State Meet Contenders


Anonymous said...

Why would crose be listed as a threat and not a wildcard when Ehrenberg beat him in every match up and Salazar beat him twice? Not sure how the non d2 guys would have matched up with him.

Albert Caruana said...

I think some of the threats and wild cards can all be interchangeable. No question Ehrenberg will be one of the runners chasing a state meet berth.

Anonymous said...

Watch out for

1600-Aragon Lowell SF 4:18 or faster prediction
Bouhassoun Mission 4:20 or faster

3200 - Bouhassoun Mission SF 9:16 or faster prediction
Aragon Lowell SF 9:25 or faster prediction

Anonymous said...

Trevor Reinhart is one of the top XC runners in the country, just might be a threat in then 3200?

Anonymous said...

Andy Ehrenberg is a stud

Anonymous said...

To Anonymous @2:25pm

While I am sure Luis Aragon is a fine runner, there are two problems with your comment.

1) This is a post about the North Coast Section (NCS), Luis runs in the San Francisco Section.

2) These lists are largely about previous results. Luis' result from last year's sophomore season (2:03.27 & 4:33.64), are nowhere near these lists. The slowest on these list come in at around 1:59.09 (22nd NCS) and 4:22.76 (20th NCS), where Luis's time (had he been running in the NCS), would have been 64th and 77th in the last year. Now as a sophomore, these are good times, and coaches would be thrilled to have him on their team, but he will need to keep working to get as fast as the guys here.

Anonymous said...

@8:04 I agree wrong post for NCS but Aragon ran 16:03 at mariner invite course I believe same as NCS champs (hayward high) this would have been pretty close to guys like rauch, monsolaud, schuman and Schultz at NCS finals. all I am saying is he will hold his own as a junior this year to these guys and coming from the same coach that got hogan to 4:11 and nehaus to 1:53 (2013) he will do very well with these names and the rest of Norcal

Anonymous said...


OK first, Hogan's results were very impressive, but I think a small part of the impressiveness is that he seemingly came out of nowhere. I think part of that, is that he spent his early career sprinting, instead of running distance. So the coach's contribution of convincing Hogan to chase his true talent at longer races can not be discounted. But Luis has been running distance since at least freshman year.

Secondly, the Mariner is not the NCS course. Also NCS, this year, had horizontal rain early in the day, and the accompanying fairly nasty mud as the day went on, so it is really tough to compare times. But just the same, let's take the first name on your list (Rauch) as an example:

As a sophomore Rauch ran a 4:24.62 to Luis' 4:36.44. As a junior in 2013, on a Dry Course, Rauch ran 15:47 at Hayward to Luis' 16:03 at Mariner also as a Junior. This year, Rauch ran 15:21 for 3.05 miles on a dry course at his league finals as a senior, to Luis' best as a Junior of 16:03 for 3 miles.

Again, I am in no way trying to disrespect Luis, and he certainly could make your predicted 4:18. It is just that the slowest guy on this list has an actual 4:22, so Luis still has a fair amount of work to do...

PS. Luis, if you are reading this, please listen carefully to your coach (he clearly knows what he is doing) and do the work necessary to prove your cheerleader right, and me wrong; I am sure that most of us here (me included) would love to see it happen.

Anonymous said...

Has Chloe Jenkins signed/verballed yet?

Anonymous said...

So not going to get into a pissing match but a 4:11 guy does not come out of nowhere their are signs of talent and good times you just need to look under the hood a bit and match speed ability with some hard work and strength.

As a "cheerleader"for aragon I look at one thing and that is Aerobic strength combined with some natural speed at a young age. Simple facts again that Aragon has potential for 4:19 as a Junior on aerobic strength alone with progresion.

Woodward Park

Aragon-16:34 Junior Year

Rauch- 17:31 Junior Year
16:55 senior Year

Anonymous said...

Jenkins is not a Sr

Anonymous said...

The Chloe Jenkins 800 pick... where did she disappear during this past xc season? She had run xc the past 3 years, but this year, no mention of her on the SMCHS website's xc page in either their xc season preview or in any result. Injured? transferred?

Albert Caruana said...

I believe she chose not to run XC this past season.

Anonymous said...


I am so sorry I am annoying you and not communicating effectively. I will try again.

I don't mean to refute your assertion that young Luis will go sub 4:19. I am simply trying to say that even if he does do sub 4:19, it does not necessarily get him into the company of the names on these lists (as you stated rauch, monsolaud, schuman and Schultz).

Last year your speculative sub 4:19, had it been done in NCS, would have only gotten a 10th best on the year. There were only 6 names presented here, (only 3 of which get to state from NCS) so a predicted 4:19 doesn't quite get on the list.

So, I don't want denigrate Luis in anyway, and while his future is bright, he just isn't on these lists quite yet.

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