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Thursday, September 30, 2010

NCS Divisional Rankings as of 9/30/10

Boys
Division I (Top 2 qualify to state meet)
1)  College Park HS
2)  De La Salle HS
3)  Amador Valley HS
4)  Monte Vista HS
5)  Castro Valley HS
On the bubble:  Livermore HS and Granada HS.

Division II (Top 3 qualify to state meet)
1)  San Ramon Valley HS
2)  Washington HS
3)  Montgomery HS
4)  Santa Rosa HS
5)  Casa Grande HS
On the bubble:  Mt. Eden HS, Alameda HS.

Division III (Top 4 qualify to state meet)
1)  Campolindo HS (#3 in state)
2)  Las Lomas HS (#7 in state)
3)  Petaluma HS (#10 in state)
4)  Piner HS
5)  Maria Carrillo HS
On the bubble:  Eureka HS, Acalanes HS, Alhambra HS, Bishop O'Dowd HS, Northgate HS and Miramonte HS.

Division IV (Top 4 qualify to state meet)
1)  SF University HS (#6 in state)
2)  Sir Francis Drake HS
3)  San Rafael HS (#9 in state)
4)  St. Mary's Berkeley HS
5)  Tamalpais HS
On the bubble:  Terra Linda HS, Cardinal Newman HS, Moreau Catholic HS and Willits HS.

Division V (Top 5 qualify to state meet)
1)  Urban HS (#4 in state)
2)  St. Joseph Notre Dame HS
3)  Marin Academy HS
4)  College Prep School
5)  Stuart Hall HS
On the bubble:  Lick Wilmerding HS and International HS.

Girls
Division I (Top 2 qualify to state meet) 
1)  Granada HS (#10 in state)
2)  College Park HS
3)  Amador Valley HS
4)  Monte Vista HS
5)  Castro Valley HS
On the bubble:  Livermore HS.

Division II (Top 3 qualify to state meet)
1)  Carondelet HS
2)  San Ramon Valley HS
3)  Clayton Valley HS
4)  Washington HS
5)  Santa Rosa HS
On the bubble:  Casa Grande HS.

Division III (Top 4 qualify to state meet)
1)  Campolindo HS (#1 in state)
2)  Acalanes HS (#6 in state)
3)  Maria Carrillo HS (#10 in state)
4)  Las Lomas HS
5)  Bishop O'Dowd HS
On the bubble:  Northgate HS, Redwood HS, Petaluma HS and Eureka HS.

Division IV (Top 3 qualify to state meet)
1)  Sir Francis Drake HS (#2 in state)
2)  Terra Linda HS 
3)  Tamalpais HS
4)  Moreau Catholic HS
5)  St. Mary's Berkeley HS
On the bubble:  Piedmont HS.

Division V (Top 5 qualify to state meet)
1)  University HS (#2 in state)
2)  College Prep School (#3 in state)
3)  Urban School (#4 in state)
4)  Branson HS (#5 in state)
5)  Marin Academy HS (#10 in state)
On the bubble:  Lick Wilmerding HS (#9 in state), Sonoma Academy and Convent HS.

Feel free to comment on above rankings.  With the help of several coaches, I placed the teams in the way things look right now.  If you feel I am missing any teams, let me know.  If there are teams flying under the radar right now, let us know about those teams as well.  I won't be offended if you think I am way off with some of the rankings.  Fire away!

42 comments:

matt said...

miramonte boys ought to be included at least on the bubble

Albert Caruana said...

Matt,

You are correct. Adding them to the On the Bubble list.

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Will you be doing individuals?

Anonymous said...

They have not yet raced each other this season but I would have to guess San Ramon Valley and Washington have the top four individual runners in boys Div.II. Parker Duel and Matt Divries from SRV and Nolan Petersen and Jesse Chestnut from WHS.

Anonymous said...

when and where are they posting individual rankings?

Anonymous said...

petaluma boys deserve far better than #10 in state

A.B.S. said...

Looks good, though I'd be kind of surprised if Petaluma didn't beat Las Lomas before all is said and done.

Albert Caruana said...

Individual rankings will come out shortly. Perhaps by the beginning of next week.

Thanks for all the comments so far. Keep them coming. I want to make these rankings as accurate as possible.

Calvin John said...

Acalanes should definitely be on the bubble. Their top three runners (Tyler Troxel, Adler Faulkner and Tyler Sorenson) are probably top twenty in NCS Division III, and the rest of the team is fairly solid as well. They had a fluke at Stanford, but with that kind of heat and humidity any margin of error can be extrapolated. Look at Ed Sias.

Anonymous said...

Alhambra boys? They finished 3rd at ed sias.

Anonymous said...

The Casto Valley girls should be ranked higher. In division 2 boys, Washington only have two good runners and Mt. Eden is most definitely underestimated.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't be surprised to see Amador beat De La Salle. Can someone explain to me why only two D1 schools go to stae when all the other divisions allow 3,4, or 5?

A.B.S. said...

They figure it out based on past performances by that division in that section at state, I believe.

As for Amador beating De La Salle.... debatable, to say the least. DLS would so far qualify as "under the radar."

Albert Caruana said...

Division I only gets two teams to the state meet because the amount of teams that advance to state is based on how well teams do at state over a 3 year period. Unfortunately, the teams that compete at the state meet in the Division I level are up against it at the state meet. Definitely not fair competition. The 3rd place finish by Davis HS a few years ago in Division I is really amazing.

As for the teams that have been mentioned, I will add them to at least on the bubble.

Mt. Eden has everybody back from last year and this was noted in the pre-season rankings. Definitely a team to watch.

Acalanes and Alhambra will be added in Division III.

A.B.S. said...

The CIF figures it out, that is to say, not NCS. DI and II tend to get trampled a bit because the division cutt offs can be drastically different in different sections. For example, some DI NCS teams would be DIII in Southern Section. This doesn't happen as much in D5 because any school above 500 students can not be in D5 so its a more even playing field.

Anonymous said...

Amador Valley is coming out hot right now! Don't forget about these guys trust me they will be right there at the end.

Anonymous said...

add dougherty valley they're top 5 boys had a really small spread at dfal meet

Anonymous said...

One reason the Washington boys should be ranked #2 in Div.II is that at last weeks Stanford Invitational they ran faster than Div II rivals Casa Grande, Montgomery, and Santa Rosa. And strong 1-2 punch can be hard to beat. Washington is definately team on the rise.

Anonymous said...

EBAL Center Meet #1 saw the 2, 3 & 4 NCS D1 teams (Del La Salle, Monte Vista and Amador) plus DCS D2 leader San Ramon face off. The SRV Wolves sents the meet with DLS only thre points behind. SRV was lead in the overall with a 1 - 3 finish by the duo of Parker Deuel (jr) and Matt DeVries (so). The Wolves put 4 runners under 16 minutes (none of them Seniors) including first year cross country participant Carl Wilke (so) at 15:58. However, its early season and there must have been 10 runners between 15:30 and 15:50 so the league is still very much up in the air.

Anonymous said...

5:33/mile (20) SO Stephen Carlson – 16:40 (Alameda #1)
5:35/mile (26) JR Emmanuel Boqurien – 16:45 (Alameda #2)
5:36/mile (28) SO Duc Nguyen – 16:50 (Alameda #3)
5:38/mile (32) JR Daniel Arnstein – 16:55 (Alameda #4)
5:40/mile (35) FR Cameron Tu – 17:00 (Alameda #5)
5:41/mile (36) SO Michael Moler – 17:05 (Alameda #6)
5:43/mile (38) SR Tyler Parsons – 17:10 (Alameda #7)

1:24:10 = (apprx. 16:50ish average)

141 – 6th Place @ NCS Div. II Championships

my predictions for alameda this season. based on the times these boys are running, it looks like a rebuilding year for alameda. they may run faster and suprise us, so keep them on the bubble though.

Anonymous said...

^^^ How do you figure that gets a 6th place finish? Every single team in the D2 has a 4 and 5 guy running up around 18:00. 5 guys under 17:00 would get them in for sure.

URFasterThanMe said...

>> Every single team in the D2 has a 4 and 5 guy running up around 18:00. 5 guys under 17:00 would get them in for sure.

Are you sure? SJS D2 has 5 teams with 5 guys under 17:00 and only 4 go to State.

Anonymous said...

^^^ This article and my post is about NCS, not SJS.

Anonymous said...

i was basing those predictions on last years ncs meet, and how those new runners are doing this year. Its interesting to note that Alameda has 1 returning var runner this year, even though 3 juniors last year were varsity. And plus, even if they had 5 runners under 17 minutes, they'd still need to average under a 16:30 (based on last years meet, which i know was filled with talen), and part of he reason why Alameda made it to state last year was because they had 2 guys under 16.

Anonymous said...

alameda barely made it to state last year, because they lost their old #3 guy, and 2008 ncs, they had like 4 or 5 guys under 17, 1 under 16, yet they didn't make it to state. However I think that if the alameda boys do as well as i predict, then they have a shot at state their junior/senior year. Lets face it, the only reason why Alameda was so highly ranked last year was because of their top 2 runners, and this team, noticably young (their top runners are almost all sophs/juniors), and I'm sure that they might have potential to be even better than last years 3rd place team.

However, these are predictions, ultimately it is up to these young men to run those times

Anonymous said...

Enough about what Alameda may accomplish next year and the year after that. How good is their varsity team this year?

Anonymous said...

You guys are basing your predictions off of last years NCS meet, however this year is a significantly weaker field. If you take Alameda's clovis times and compare them to the Stanford invite, which is an even flatter course, Alameda would have beat Washington, Montgomery, AND Santa Rosa. SRV has #1 locked up, but Casa Grande, Mt Eden and Alameda could fall into the #2 and #3 spot in any order.

Anonymous said...

I highly doubt Alameda can beat Washington or Santa Rosa. Washington and Santa Rosa both have strong front runners which will decrease their score significantly.

Alameda (At Clovis)
#1 17:18, #2 17:23, #3 18:01, #4 18:06, #5 18:17

Washington (At Stanford)
#1 16:06, #2 16:26, #3 18:08, #4 18:20, #5 19:14

Santa Rosa (At Stanford)
#1 16:46, #2 (Bad Race), #3 17:55, #4 17:56, #5 18:40

The team with the strongest #3 runner and best #5 out of all the other teams will take 2nd at NCS Divsion 2.

Anonymous said...

DLS moved up in the state rankings. They're looking strong. A shot at beating college park?

Anonymous said...

dear albert i think you need to change ncs DII rankings it looks like srv is going to have a challenge

Anonymous said...

dear albert.... NCS dII srv is in a challenge after looking on this sat's race at mariner invt

Anonymous said...

I was at last Saturday's Mariner and it was not a particularly fast race. It was actually slower than the past few years. SJS powerhouse Del Campo looked stong easily beating their SJS rival Jesuit and the other 7 schools in the large school division. I did not see any NCS Div. II team there who could beat or even challenge SRV.

Anonymous said...

why is DII slower than DIII?

Albert Caruana said...

Better teams in Division III.

Albert Caruana said...

I think at the section level, the successful teams come from tough leagues. You rise to the level of your competition.

It just happens that the DFAL has a collection of very good teams and they all fall into Division III. You add Maria Carrillo, Petaluma, Piner etc. to the division and you end up with a highly competition Div. III at NCS.

Anonymous said...

i dont think we can underestimate mt eden anymore. it really looks like thhe underdogs on the bubble will give us a show at ncs

Anonymous said...

Mt.Eden has been in the conversation from the beginning and I don't think they are being underestimated. If you are going to continue to suggest that they can run with SRV then you are not being realistic.

Anonymous said...

Let's get serious here guys didn't SRV beat state ranked DLS just last week in a league meet.

Anonymous said...

EBAL Center Meet #2 is tomorrow. DLS, Amador, SRV, Monta Vista, Livermore and Granada will face off again. They are running a new course, Robertson Park, which should favor DLS's experience and local teams Livermore and Granada who are more likely to have run in the park before. Hopefully, everyone is full strength and we get a great benchmark of where these teams all stand 2 weeks out from league and 4 weeks out from the big shootout at NCS.

Anonymous said...

Regarding tomorrow's EBAL Center meet, how does DLS' experience help on an unfamiliar course? Are you talking in terms of pace and tactics? Are they primarily seniors with a lot of racing experience? Just curious. Also-I believe it's MontE Vista running tomorrow, not MontA Vista.

Anonymous said...

Hi! I'm writing an article about the results of NCS and I'm considering using this as a source. I was just wondering how you got your information?

Albert Caruana said...

The information was gathered by asking coaches and athletes in each division and results of races to date.

Feel free to use the above rankings for your article.