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Sunday, December 30, 2012

2013 NCS Distance State Meet Contenders

Here is what I have so far.  Remember only top 3 make state this year unless you make the 2013 At-Large Time Standards.  Additions?  Changes?  Comments?
Girls 800m.
The favorite:  Madison Ricks California HS
Threats:  Nijae Jones San Leandro HS, Sadia Ibrahim Santa Rosa HS
Wildcards:  Maria Barragan Healdsburg HS, Keisha May Bishop O'Dowd HS, Aida Julien Head Royce HS, Molly Carleton Urban HS, Chloe Jenkins St. Mary's Berkeley

Boys 800m.
The favorite:  Eugene Hamilton III Bishop O'Dowd HS
Threats:  Connor Mckinnon Amador Valley HS, Adler Faulkner Acalanes HS
Wildcards:  Dante Hay Maria Carillo, Carl Wilke San Ramon Valley HS

Girls 1600m.
The favorite:  Jennie Callan San Francisco University HS
Threats:  Ashley Moffett Casa Grande HS
Wildcards:   Chloe Pigg Arcata HS, Megan McCandless Granada HS, Brooke Starn Monte Vista HS, Chloe Hansel Las Lomas HS

Boys 1600m.
The favorite:  Connor Clark San Francisco University HS
Threats:  Ryan Douglas Petaluma HS, Clayton Hutchins Sir Francis Drake HS
Wildcards:  Louis Rodriguez St. Joseph Notre Dame, Michael Wang Acalanes HS, Stephen Carlson Alameda HS
The Freshman:  Matt Salazar Casa Grande HS

Girls 3200m.
The favorite:  Julia Maxwell Branson HS
Threats:  Jena Pianin Amador Valley HS, Diribe Abdo Berkeley HS
Wildcards:   Christine Bayliss San Ramon Valley HS, Maryann Gong Granada HS

Boys 3200m.
The favorite:  John Lawson Sir Francis Drake HS
Threats:  Aidan Goltra Campolindo HS, Tyler Hanson Miramonte HS, Fred Huxham Redwood HS
Wildcards:  Blair Hurlock De La Salle HS, Danny Stalters Northgate HS, Clayton Hutchins Sir Francis Drake HS

Next:  2013 CCS Distance State Meet Contenders

33 comments:

se la dalle said...

hurlock is fasho a threat. that kid was ballin out of control early in xc

norcal coach said...

Kinney from Marin and Frosty from Piedmont should be on the 1600 list

Anonymous said...

lawson is going sub 9 and hamilton is going sub 150. u heard it here first.

Anonymous said...

agree with norcal coach- 1600 is missing a few on the boys side. Carlson (alameda) ran 4:23 last year and should definitely be on the list. Frost (15:58 at state and 4:25 last year) and Kinney (15:59 at state and 4:27 last year) are contenders too

Anonymous said...

No offense but Is 4:23, 4:25 and 4:27 going to make state? Will 4:27 even make NCS finals?

Anonymous said...

those times wouldn't, but i think some of those kids are capable of sub 420 action

Anonymous said...

Huxham, 1,600 look out.

Anonymous said...

@ anonymous 10:14

Hamilton will NEVER go sub 1:50, and it is ludicrous to believe so. His ceiling is 1:51.5, and it is useless arguing with me about that. Now, Lawson DOES have a chance at sub 9:00, but it is only about a 5% chance, because that would take a perfect race.

Anonymous said...

To Anonymous @ 2:46 PM:

What makes you so certain that Lawson only has a 5% chance of breaking 9:00? And what makes you so certain that Hamilton's ceiling is 1:51.5?

Anonymous said...

@2:46--- don't underestimate hamilton. remember a guy from last year by the name of Nick Ratto? he ran 1:56 as a junior and as a senior, people were blown away when he ran 1:53.8. they said that was it, he had hit his ceiling. but then he ran 1:51 at state. Eugene has more raw, undeveloped talent than Ratto, and ran 1:52 last year (it was his first year as a distance runner). so i think that breaking 1:50 is completely plausible. not saying its a certainty, but i think its totally plausible given his raw speed, and potential for growth from last year.

Anonymous said...

lawson will go sub 9 easy. 9:12 last year? put this guy in arcadia. he'll show up.

Anonymous said...

If Hurlock stays healthy he could beat Lawson.

Anonymous said...

Madison Ricks, best runner in NCS this year!

Anonymous said...

Is it just me or does 9:09 as an at large standard for the 3200 seem overly harsh...compared to say 4:16 for the mile or 1:59.9 for 800? We see a slew of boys go sub 9 at Arcadia each year but beyond that, few ever go under 9:10.

Since 2000, the WINNER at NCS has gone under that at large standard less than a handfull of times in the 3200 while in the 1600 ( a far more tactical race), the winner is under that at large standard all but a couple times.

Albert Caruana said...

Actually, if you compare the distance at-large times (1:52.92, 4:16.38 and 9:09.03) the toughest standard is the 800. 3200 would be 2nd with the 1600 very close behind.

Anonymous said...

@Albert - I'm curious how you draw the above conclusion.

Anonymous said...

Girls 1600m will be much more up for grabs. Callan's fastest is 5:01, Moffett 5:09. Pigg has run 5:00 for the mile, Starn 5:08 for 1600, McCandless 4:52 for 1500m. Don't forget about Annaka Green at Amador who's run 4:41 for 1500 and is back running after her injury that kept her from xc. Finally, Maxwell, Pianin, Ricks and Bayliss all have PRs of 5:01 or faster and could choose to double or change focus from last year.

Anonymous said...

Chloe Jenkins in the 800 as a wildcard

Anonymous said...

What does early season look like? When are the first big match ups? Will we get to see a stack field in the 1600 at Dan Gabor or perhaps the 3200 at Dublin Distance Fiesta (like the Wyatt Landrum / Garrett Rowe show down of '09)

Peter Brewer said...

The at-large standards are based on a three year average of the the 9th place finisher at the State meet. 9th place is used, since it is the final qualifying mark to finals in the field events and the sprints. And the last two years in particular have seen some remarkable 3200 races at the state meet. Hence, the 9:09 represents that three-year average.

Since the whole idea of the at-large is to advance the athletes that demonstrate that they can compete at a State Final level, that's the current mark needed for the 3200. Welcome to the new world of California track.

Anonymous said...

Carlson is a huge threat. Just saying

Anonymous said...

Rodrigues*

Bill Bellamy said...

Big Rod Rodrigues*

Bill Bellamy said...

R.I.P. Jet set. You will be missed

Anonymous said...

Seems like there is a kid from liberty who ran fast at 800M last year...like 1:57 as a sophomore. Cody I think. Lot of potential here.
Also - not sure I saw Schumann of DLS listed - should be a threat to go low in the 3200.

Anonymous said...

@12:32am nice try louis

Tri Valley said...

clark doesn't quite have the kick to win MOC in the 1600 (if he was near people in the last 200-300). he's a one hell of a strong runner, but in the last turn when its time to go, he can't blast off. the only way he can win is if he sets an absolutely brutal pace from the gun. some of these up-and-coming guys are pretty fast, so the king needs to watch his back!

Anonymous said...

Cody Mayer from Liberty...and yes he's a good 800 runner.

NCSftw said...

What about Carter Mackey from Castro Valley? I was looking through the results from NCS XC and he did get second in the D1 race and beat Matt Schumann along with quite a few quality runners. And only a sophmore. Looks like he bombed at state but I would still bet he'll be a threat come track season.

NCSftw said...

What about Carter Mackey from Castro Valley? I was looking through the results from NCS XC and he did get second in the D1 race and beat Matt Schumann along with quite a few quality runners. And only a sophmore. Looks like he bombed at state but I would still bet he'll be a threat come track season.

NCS Miler said...

Mackey and Schumann are both contenders in the 3200.

Anonymous said...

Funny how "anonymous" people post about an athlete's potential or "ceiling" without knowing the athlete personally. Many of the previous predictions have been proven erroneous already. Why not praise the athletes for putting themselves out there and pass on commenting unless there is something insightful to say? In the alternative, the "anonymous" negative posts can be retracted when an athlete performs :)

Anonymous said...

^ you mad bro?

Check out other message boards... Way more vicious.