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Tuesday, November 06, 2012

CCS Guestimates by Hank Lawson of www.lynbrooksports.com

If you find any errors or omissions, please email Hank at hanklawtrack@gmail.com.
http://www.prepcaltrack.com/ATHLETICS/XC/2012/ccsguess.htm

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Where did Saint Francis come from?

Albert Caruana said...

Not too sure that 1 second difference between Crystal Springs and Toro for the boys is correct. I think somewhere between 15-20 seconds slower for Toro compared to Crystal Springs is more like it.

Anonymous said...

Yea, Saint Francis has really come on strong, beating SI in WCAL to get that second spot is pretty impressive. SI does have a freshman who ran 16:11 in the frosh race though, and with him SI probably would have got second. Still kudos to SF. GO WCAL!

Also D3 boys really needs to step up. Put Willow Glen back or something, because after SI there is a huge drop off.

Anonymous said...

If the crystal and toro times are the same the team qualifying time would also be identical. They are not. By looking at the team qualifying times it's about 1:20-30 difference between toro and crystal, which equates to 15-20 seconds for boys.

Unless you believe the ccs conspires to keep teams out from the north that is the difference.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know how many at large individuals make it to state?

Albert Caruana said...

The top 5 individuals from each race will also qualify to the state meet provided they are in the top 12 when 2 teams qualify, top 14 when 3 teams qualify, top 16 when 4 teams qualify and top 18 when 5 teams qualify.

Anonymous said...

I think it is 6 individuals

Anonymous said...

Albert: How many individual qualify and top 'how many' when there are six teams qualifying for State, re: DV girls NCS?

Anonymous said...

Yeah SF! Los Altos better watch out!!

Albert Caruana said...

It's top 5 individuals no matter how many teams qualify. What changes is that you have to be in the top 12 when only 2 qualify etc as I said above. It's top 5 in the top 20 when 6 teams qualify (such as Div. V girls in NCS).

Anonymous said...

yeah, as Albert said, Crystal is faster than Toro by a good 15-20 seconds per boy... that changes things quite a bit on those guestimates... regardless, rankings are only useful to try to prove wrong ;) Good luck to all teams and congrats ahead of time to those that make state!
Coach Ibarra
NMC

hank said...

I too agree with the 15-20 second difference from Crystal to Toro but in order to keep the human element out of these guesstimates I went with what the XCStats converter has calculated which is based on the amount of data that has been loaded into the XCStats database. As more races are run (and loaded) the converter program will change it's time conversions, but until then... data is data.

hank

Kevin Liao said...

Hank, some of the teams included in the guesstimates haven't qualified for CCS, ie. top 12 teams from BVAL qualify for CCS so a team like Independence shouldn't be included. Also I believe Paly didn't qualify for boys.

hank said...

I know. For simplicity sake, I just took all of the runners from League Finals without taking out the non-qualifiers (I'm going to let Walt bring it down to that level of detail). I just wanted to show what it "might" look like if CCS was run as a single race (old school) Vs all of the divisions that we now have (but of course since it's all in a DB, I figured I could do the division break down anyway since it wasn't that hard to do).

hank

SLV Runner said...

Makes Since! I'm a SLV Runner, and the Results could have been easly different on the Girls side, first Anna was with the flu and throwing up the next two days, Anna Had beaten Vanessa that Thursday Prior, Next we had decided to pull Abby out of race and rest her knee, she has a very slight stress fracture there, she was born with a hole in her knee by a a growth she had developed when she was younger, plus SLVwent 1 thru 3 on Aptos in the Dual meet also prior to Mt Sac! Abby will be Back and Anna was looking alot better today at practice! next not having our Coach wasn't very motivating also but he will be there at CCS with us then!

Anonymous said...

Sorry if I missed this info in the comments, but how many teams go to state from each division?

Albert Caruana said...

http://www.cifstate.org/images/Cross_Country/2012_XC_Handbook_-FINAL.pdf