NCS DIII Boys:
4 teams make it to state in this division, and this upcoming season there will be plenty of teams fighting for those spots.
1 Tamalpais
The Red-Tailed Hawks were the biggest surprise in the NCS last cross country season and this track season. Last fall, Tamalpais pulled off the upset win to dethrone Campolindo at the section meet and followed that up with a top 10 placing at state.
This spring “Tam” turned it up to another level as one of the best middle distance squads in the entire section. With a whopping 12 returning athletes all under 4:50 for 1600, Tam is loaded with talent. Gilby Filat Sam Ismailer, and Lucas Ruark look to be the frontrunners at this point, with all three breaking 10:00 in the 3200 this past spring. The big challenge for Tamalpais will be developing that middle-distance speed into cross country endurance. Caden Gardner, Jack Turner, and Cooper Hatch all broke 2:00 in the 800 during the track season, and they could easily turn into major contributors for a loaded Tam squad.
As it stands, this team is far ahead of the challengers as they seek to be the first non-Campolindo team to repeat in this division since Petaluma from 2009-2010. Given the graduation losses of other teams in the state, Tam has plenty of potential to have its best finish ever, with a Top-3 podium spot well within reach. While track times do not always translate to cross country success, there is simply too much talent and depth on this squad, some combination of 7 will be ready to go by the end of the season.
2. Maria Carrillo
The Pumas have plenty of young talent, including Cameron Jones, who ripped a 1:55 in the 800 and qualified to state in that event as a freshman last track season. Jack Wilson has sub-16:00 credentials at Woodward Park and gives the Pumas a low stick up front.
Austin Petrik had a solid spring season as well, running 9:53 in the 3200. Through three runners, Maria Carrillo is as good as Tamalpais, but the depth will need to be addressed if the squad wants to compete for the title. Jonathan Rath and Milo Wiese both ran 4:45 or better in the 1600 but they will need to adjust to the rigors of cross country racing if they want to compete for the section title.
3. Campolindo
The Cougars were the dominant team coming out of the pandemic, rolling to big NCS wins and two runner-up finishes at state in 2021 and 2022. Last year, the rest of the section caught up to Campolindo as the team was defeated by Tamalpais at the section meet, and then finished in 15th place at state, their worst performance in 20 years. While Campo has the most section titles of any team in this division, there is a big gap to make up as the summer begins. The Cougars have some incredible young talent and had the best Freshman 5k squad of any team in the state at Woodward Park last cross country season, but that youth will need to mature quickly.
Cody de la Cruz and Maxson Cook are the two veteran returnees from last year’s team, and both of them broke the 10:00 in the 3200 during the track season, a good starting point. From there, sophomores Clark Gregory, Drew Shogan, and Gavin Gunn all flashed brilliance at times but struggled with consistency. While the three of them all broke 10:20 for 3200 in track, they will need big improvements to challenge the likes of Maria Carrillo and Tamalpais. Junior to be Taejin Chung showed big improvement over the spring, clocking a 4:38 in the 1600 and a 10:16 in the 3200. Campo has a lot of depth with 9 athletes returning who have broken 10:30 for 3200, but that’s still a ways back of Tamalpais’ depth.
At this point, Campolindo remains a dark horse to move up the rankings, though having to rely on young and unproven talent will make it a challenge. The remaining teams chasing Campolindo in the standings all have significantly better front-end talent, so the Cougars will have to shore up their back end if they want to place in the top 4 and make it to state.
4. Casa Grande
Teams 4-7 are all loaded with talent and potential but short on depth, something that describes Casa Grande pretty well. Jack Dufour and Dylan Mainaris both flashed huge potential during track, with the pair running 1:57 in the 800. With a summer of training, the duo could make more big gains in the fall. The Gauchos have two other returners under 4:45 in the 1600 but after that there is a massive drop off to their projected #5 scorer, Jorge Navarro, who’s 1600 best is 4:52. There will need to be some big improvements at the back end for Casa Grande to move up these rankings and fend off all the other teams seeking that coveted fourth and final spot to state.
5. Las Lomas
The Knights are led by senior Nate Griffin-Yeh, who is the clear favorite to win the individual section title. With a best of 4:14 in the 1600, he made huge strides during the spring track season and that will continue this fall. Akash Ghandi is the next best returner at 4:39 for 1600 and after that, the Knights have a solid group who all ran between 4:46 and 4:50 in Zack Springer, Joshua Sonoda, and Andre Rivard. Having such a solid #1 runner will make the task easier for Las Lomas, but there is still plenty of ground to be made up if the Knights are to challenge for a berth to state.
6. Analy
This is the most intriguing team on the list, the talent is there for this squad to be a top-4 team, but they will need a big summer and some big breakthroughs on the cross country course to do so. The Tigers feature a potent duo of Cormac Gaylord and Owen Dawson, who both dipped under 4:30 in the 1600 during the track season. After that, Quince Holman is the projected number three, with a 4:36 1600 best.
That puts Analy in line with any other team but there is a massive drop-off after those three. Bear Vanden Heuvel is the next best returner and while he ran a solid 2:02 for 800, he only managed a 4:56 for 1600, which points to a lack of aerobic fitness and cross country potential. The Tigers do not have the team size of many of their opponents so they will need big improvements across the board from some of their younger athletes. Given that they did not have another returner break 5:00 for the 1600, they might not have the depth to move up these rankings. However, if any of their projected backend scorers have a big improvement, that will suddenly vault them up the standings and in contention for a state meet berth or better.
7. Newark Memorial
The Cougars (what’s with all the cat names!!) were a huge success story coming out of the pandemic, making the state meet for the first time in school history in 2021 and returning again in 2022. The squad struggled in the rain during the 2023 NCS Championship and Newark-Memorial has their work cut out for them when it comes to making it back to state. Kenji Kawabata had a nice breakthrough during the spring, running 9:38 in the 3200, which will help a lot.
Still, there is a big gap between him and the rest of the projected scorers, with the Cougars only returning 4 athletes with sub-5:00 credentials in the 1600. Again, any improvement from these backend scorers would make a substantial difference to their chances at finishing in the top 4, so don’t count Newark-Memorial out just yet.
Individual rankings
Campolindo sophomore Clark Gregory is the top returner from last year’s NCS meet after his head-turning third-place finish. While he struggled with injury during the spring track season, if he can stay healthy he will be in contention for another top 3 finish. Nate Griffin-Yeh of Las Lomas is the heavy favorite coming into the season based on his 4:14 and 9:32 1600/3200 performances in the spring. He looks to be the first runner from Las Lomas to win the individual NCS title since Greg Drosky in 2006.
- Nate Griffin-Yeh - Las Lomas
- Kenji Kawabata - Newark-Memorial
- Jack Wilson - Maria Carrillo
- Lucas Rurark - Tamalpais
- Cameron Jones - Maria Carrillo
- Gilby Filat - Tamalpais
- Sam Ismailer - Tamalpais
- Austin Petrik - Maria Carrillo
- Cormac Gaylord - Analy
- Dylan Mainaris - Casa Grande
NCS DIII Girls Rankings
Campolindo has dominated this division like no other team in the history of the NCS, winning the past 10 team championships in a row. The 10-peat is tied with SF University (1995-2004) for the longest winning streak in the history of the NCS Championships.
While “Campo” has been on a tear at the state level recently (4 state titles in 7 years), Montgomery returns the most talented front end in the entire state of California and looks to finally dethrone Campolindo and win its first section title since 2001.
1. Montgomery
The unstoppable triumvirate of Hanne Thomsen, Amrie Lacefield, and Seelah Kittlestrom continues for another season, with the three seniors easily the best trio in DIII in the entire state. When you have the potential to go 1-2-3 at the NCS meet, and have three finishers in the top 10 at state, you have the makings of an all-time great team.
Depth has been an issue for the Vikings in recent years however, and while Jasmine Mansfield made huge strides this track season in running 5:17 in the 1600, she has never done cross country before. There is still no guarantee that she will end up competing for Montgomery during the fall due to commitments to other sports.
After that, there is an even greater drop-off, with Montgomery’s next fastest runner being Cora Morthole at 5:55 in the 1600. Such a huge gap could end up sinking the team’s NCS title and state podium chances against teams with a tighter pack margin. Any improvement from Montgomery’s back-end runners or a new freshman coming out for the team could make all the difference.
As it stands now Montgomery is the heavy favorite but will have some work to do at the backend. At last year’s NCS Championship meet, Morthole finished in 59th place, which accounted for almost half of Montgomery’s team score at that race. Given the depth the contending teams have at their disposal, the Vikings will need to close down the pack margin.
2. Maria Carrillo
The Pumas have been one of the most consistent teams in this division for quite some time, but a section title has eluded them, having last won a section title in DII in 2013. You have to go all the way back to 2009 to find the last time Maria Carrillo captured a DIII title.
With budding superstar Ashlin Mallon at the front, the Pumas have all the pieces ready to make a run at the title. Carley Schubert and Katherine Choe have continued their improvement curves during the spring track season and Maria Carrillo has plenty of other runners waiting in the wings as well, returning a whopping 14 girls who have broken 6:00 in the 1600.
As usual, the Pumas will have work to do at their back end and they have a fairly experienced team at this point, with 5 returners from last year’s postseason squad, so the team should be set up for another stellar season this fall. Given league rival Montgomery’s lack of depth, Maria Carrillo could place seven runners in front of their fifth, which would be hard to overcome at the section meet.
3. Campolindo
“Campo” has been the class of this division for decades now, with the Cougars owning a whopping 17 DIII championships in the past 25 years. This will be the first time in quite a while that Campolindo is rebuilding, having lost the bulk of its squad from last year.
The cupboard is by no means bare for the Cougars though, as sophomores Kiona McCasland (5:20 1600) and Amalia Contreras (5:20 1600) had productive track seasons. Contreras had an impressive finish last fall in breaking 19:00 for 5K at the state meet, so Campolindo starts the season in a good spot at the front end.
The real wildcard for the team will be junior Claire Andrzejek, who transferred mid-year from the Bay School. While she is somewhat unproven in cross country, she had a breakout track season in running 2:16 in the 800. While track times do not always translate over to cross country, given veteran coach Chuck Woolridge’s track record of developing athletes over the summer, it’s a definite possibility.
While a few varsity-level athletes will not be returning for the fall season, Campo has plenty of depth at the lower division, with a strong sophomore class looking to rise up the ranks.
Youngers Angele Tseng, Kaitlyn Kinsey, and Nora Lawrence all flashed plenty of potential during the track season as well, and any big improvements from them could also make a huge difference.
As it stands now, Campo has some question marks that need to be answered and some new faces will need to step up and lead the team after such heavy graduation losses. Given the squad’s championship pedigree, it’s likely that they will rise to the occasion and challenge the top 2 teams at the section championships.
4. Tamalpais
The Red-Tailed Hawks are on the upswing and had a very solid spring track season. Emma Gardner and Estella Wong both broke the 5:20 barrier in the 1600 and with 5 returners under 5:50 in the 1600, Tamalpais has plenty to build off of.
The lack of a proven frontrunner is a bit of an issue but that can change very quickly after a full summer of training. Tam is not too far ahead of the other teams contending for the fourth and final spot to state. Right now, they have a slight edge but the battle for fourth place could come down to a handful of points.
5. Northgate
The Broncos continued to progress during the spring track season, with Elena Carcamo posting a huge breakthrough in roaring to 5:12 in the 1600. If she can continue that development into the fall, she will give Northgate a strong frontrunner.
Northgate’s projected 2-5 runners all ran between 5:39-5:43 in the 1600, so the team will have a good amount of depth backing Carcamo. The real challenge will be working on the pack margin between their first and fifth scorer, as this will be critical to closing the gap on the likes of Tamalpais and Campolindo.
Given that Northgate competes in the Diablo Athletic League along with Campolindo, the squad will have plenty of opportunities to test themselves before the NCS championships.
6. Las Lomas
The Knights are the most interesting team on this list due to their impressive front-running duo of Charlotte Orr (state meet participant in the 800) and Lilly Montilla (5:09 1600). Orr had a very solid cross country season last fall and her massive improvement in the longer distances during the track season, running 5:08 for 1600, points to another big jump next fall.
After those two there is a big drop off to Grace England, who has a 1600 best of 5:39. The Knights tend to have one of the larger teams in the area so filling out the remainder of the team should not be too challenging. Still, given the lack of depth, Las Lomas is on the outside looking in for now.
7. Newark Memorial
The Cougars have a solid front end, with Alice McCarthy posting solid times of 5:18 and 11:27 in the 1600/3200 respectively during the track season. Depth is still an issue for Newark-Memorial though, after Rahwa Fekadu (5:40 1600) and Grace Veloza (5:41for 1600) there is a big drop off. For the Cougars to have any shot at making it to state, this will have to be addressed, as the team lacks the front-end firepower of the teams ranked ahead of them.
Individual rankings
Montgomery should have no trouble going 1-2-3 in this race at the NCS Championships, something that will greatly aid their title chances.
- Hanne Thomsen - Montgomery
- Seelah Kittlestrom - Montgomery
- Amrie Lacefield - Montgomery
- Ashlin Mallon - Maria Carrillo
- Charlotte Orr - Las Lomas
- Avery Coddington - Casa Grande
- Elena Carcamo - Northgate
- Alice McCarthy - Newark Memorial
- Amalia Contreras - Campolindo
- Kiona McCasland - Campolindo
1 comment:
think the individual rankings left off campo on the boys side? great work as always Andy!!
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