Sunday, November 18, 2018

North Coast Section MOC pre-meet rankings

If the meet takes place this Tuesday, here are my pre-meet rankings. If you see teams that should be considered as well, please feel free to include them below in the comment section below. 

North Coast Section
Tuesday, November 20, 2018-Hayward High School
NCS/Les Schwab Cross Country Championships Race Schedule and Preview

Albert Caruana

Welcome to the 2018 North Coast Section Cross Country Meet of Champions.  Hayward High School will once again be the host for the 15th straight year with a slightly altered course due to construction in recent years.  The three-mile course features multiple loops, which allows spectators to view much of the course from the middle of the grass fields.

RACE SCHEDULE (Same order as CA State Meet)

WALK THE COURSE 7:00am - 8:15am
8:30am      Division I Boys’ Race
9:00am      Division II Boys’ Race
9:30am      Division I Girls’ Race
10:00am     Division II Girls’ Race
10:30am     Division III Boys’ Race
11:00am     Division IV Girls’ Race
11:30am     Division V Boys’ Race
12:00pm     Division III Girls’ Race
12:30pm     Division IV Boys’ Race
1:00pm            Division V Girls’ Race

Awards Schedule: (in the gymnasium)
10:00am     Division I Boys
10:20am     Division I Girls
10:40am     Division II Boys
11:00am     Division II Girls
11:20am     Division III Boys
11:45am     Division IV Girls
12:15pm     Division V Boys
12:45pm     Division III Girls
1:15pm      Division IV Boys
1:45pm            Division V Girls

The NCS Divisions are as follows:
Division I        2,700 and above        
Division II       1,918 - 2,699           
Division III      1,350 - 1,917           
Division IV       601 - 1,349 
Division V        600 and fewer          

NCS Preview:
Thank you very much to all the coaches and athletes who helped me break down each division.  The following is my best attempt to predict the top 5-7 teams as well as the top individuals for each division (boys and girls) in today’s section meet.  The teams from this meet that will qualify for the State Meet at Woodward Park in Fresno on November 24th are noted for each division.  The top 5 individuals from each race will also qualify to the state meet provided they are in the top 12 when 2 teams qualify, top 14 when 3 teams qualify, top 16 when 4 teams qualify, top 18 when 5 teams qualify and top 20 when 6 teams qualify.

The winning teams in each division will receive plaques.  The top 2 teams in each division will receive pennants.  The top 3 teams in each division will receive medals.  Seven (7) medals will be provided per team of seven.  The top 7 individuals in each race will receive medals.

Division I
Girls - (Top 2 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Amador Valley
2.    Dougherty Valley
3.    Dublin
4.    Berkeley
5.    California

Boys - (Top 2 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Dublin
2.    Amador Valley
3.    Dougherty Valley
4.    James Logan
5.    California

Division II
Girls - (Top 4 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Granada
2.    San Ramon Valley
3.    Monte Vista
4.    Liberty
5.    Santa Rosa/Livermore

Boys - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Granada
2.    De La Salle
3.    College Park
4.    Liberty
5.    Heritage/Mission San Jose

Division III
Girls - (Top 4 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Maria Carrillo
2.    Campolindo
3.    Alameda
4.    Carondelet/Redwood
5.   Las Lomas

Boys - (Top 4 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Maria Carrillo
2.    Campolindo
3.    Redwood
4.    Las Lomas
5.    Acalanes

Division IV (By Piedmont assistant coach, Len Goldman)
Girls - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Bishop O’Dowd
2.    Miramonte
3.    Piedmont
4.    Albany
5.    Marin Catholic
6.    Arcata/Analy

Boys - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Sir Francis Drake
2.    Moreau Catholic
3.    Piner
4.    Marin Catholic
5.    Bishop O’Dowd/Albany

Division V
Girls - (Top 6 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Lick-Wilmerding
2.    S.F. University
3.    Head Royce
4.    St. Joseph Notre Dame
5.    Marin Academy
6.    Convent/Urban

Boys - (Top 5 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Head Royce
2.    Lick-Wilmerding
3.    S.F. University
4.    Rincon Valley Christian
5.    Stuart Hall
6.    College Prep/St. Joseph Notre Dame



Joshua Starr said...

Thanks for recognizing Acalanes, I feel like we've been a bit underestimated. Los Lomas better watch out!

Anonymous said...

I feel like Foothill should be at least ranked 4th in D2. Albeit a small sample size, they have beat Liberty, Heritage, and Mission San Jose in the races that they've both been at. Their times may not have always been as flashy, but they also haven't run any flat, fast courses that seem to dominate the rankings. Assuming they are all healthy on race day (and that the race is run), there is no reason why they won't be in contention to slip into the third spot

Anonymous said...

I feel like mission San Jose should be at least 4th place because they have shown significant amount of improvement in the second half of the season. Their fastest guy, arnav Arora,who would probably be a top 5 - 10 finisher now run only 30 seconds faster then their fifth guy. Also, if these are based on results of meets like farmers invite, one of their top 5 didn't run that meet.

Albert Caruana said...

Thank you for the input so far. Keep them coming.

Anonymous said...

St Mary's girls squad ran well at their league meet (beating Albany).
They could be in the hunt for a top-three spot in D4.

guru said...

Great stuff! I can tell you put a lot of time into curating these rankings and everything else you put on this page, so thank you so much for supporting the cross country community in this way.

So, personally, I agree with most of these standings (at least based on what I've seen). However, as a member of MVAL (I know I'm a little biased), I feel that Mission San Jose should be a little higher on the Division II list. I've seen what they can do firsthand. Their top runner, Arnav Arora, runs incredibly fast time with, frankly, minimal competition. I can easily see him placing top 10 individually. As far as their team goes, especially late in the season, as a previous commenter mentioned, they seriously cut down their 1-5 spread, and I have witnessed races when they dominate without giving opponents a chance. If their guys are all healthy, I firmly believe they can get at least 4th.

Tyler Jorgens said...

I am also a member of the MVAL and share your feelings about Mission San Jose. In my opinion, MSJ is very deserving of a top 4 spot in D2 Boys. As others have said, Arnav will be up there and their #5 was only 30 seconds behind at MVAL finals.
Thanks for all your work putting this together. Hope the kids get to run the race!

Anonymous said...

I agree with the previous comment that Foothill has been overlooked. Simply due to previous years’ inability, sadly misinformed people have continued to place Foothill lower. Despite having strong connections to the Dublin program, I can see the Foothill program can come a long way and should at the very least be put fourth. They have beaten Liberty, Heritage, and MSJ every time they raced (blowing them out sometimes). One cannot justify putting them lower than fourth. One can even make an argument that they can be third due to them training through meets and not resting before meets, as many other coaches do to prop up their athlete times.

Based on rumors and coaching position listings, the coaching situation at Foothill is a mess. If one looks up the long list of coaches they had in recent years, most of them have questionable experience in coaching. A lot of credit should be given to the kids. These kids managed to take Foothill from a bottom-tier team to one that cannot be discounted.

Overall, I think it is a shame Foothill is being overlooked, where they are clearly better than others on this list.

Anonymous said...

Despite what others have said about Mission San Jose, I think Foothill can easily beat them. Whenever they raced, Foothill has beat them and they have faster kids at every position. Despite Arnav Arora being fast, Foothills 1 and 2 are faster than Arora. I personally don't see how Foothill can be off the list when they are objectively better than Mission San Jose, Liberty, and Heritage.

Anonymous said...

I guess we will see tomorrow. Lets Go Liberty.

Anonymous said...

When will everyone now if the meet is on?
The air quality is listed as unhealthy in Hayward this morning.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Clearly its all about the $$ and not about the health of the kids. Meet directors who have skin in the game should not be decision makers on AQI and if the meet is a go. Need to be an objective 3rd party making these critical assessments.

Anonymous said...

I think James Logan is more deserving of the 3rd or even 2nd spot in Division 1, they have had considerable improvements in the latter half of the season especially with the addition of Micheal Chadwick to the varsity team as well as major improvements to their core overall from the start of the season. Their front runner, Yadvinder Grewal is even in contention to get top 5 with most of his teammates close in tow. It goes without mention that their coach, Kevin Craddock, has done an excellent job of preparing the team for Post season as is evident in their overall performance in the MVAL league finals.

All in all I think the James Logan Boys will race well and be in strong contention for the spot to state.

Unknown said...

It would have been far wiser if they would have changed the location of the meet to an area that hasn't had poor air quality since the fires began. That's what the CCS did and they were able to hold their championship meet yesterday (Sunday) at Toro Park in Salinas.

anonymous said...

Is the current plan to just show up no matter the air quality and then be told to go home if it is bad? Some teams travel a long distance to get there and will need at least a couple hours notice to not waste a trip.

Is there any plan or deadline for making a call on the race today?

Anonymous said...

The schedule in this post appears out of date. the latest schedule is on the cif ncs site

Anonymous said...

According to mile split, the meet is on despite poor air quality. I can see the law suits if heaven forbid something happens to an athlete.

Anonymous said...

My guess is even though we know what the forecasters are saying, those in charge at NCS are showing their lack of competence and lack of contingencies. SF waited until day off to call it, my guess is that is what will happen in the morning. I will happily volunteer to make decisions next time around. I will even show you how to use your phone to put together contingency plans. Contingency is a grown up word that means having an alternative plan in case something (poor air quality) ruin s your original plans.

Anonymous said...

I am happy that they are doing everything they can to allow the athletes to compete. What they say about the AQI at Hayward is true, and I know some athletes were out on the course this morning. Our District’s Superintendent made it clear that it was up to us if we wanted to allow our athlete to participate. It’s a tough call and having a backup location might be a good lesson learned, but the teams and athletes that advance will most likely be the ones that show up and run and put their feet’s on the mats first. 15-20 minutes racing in borderline conditions is a more fair result than a 3 person committee judging applications and I suspect one that our sons and daughters prefer too.

Anonymous said...

Kids used to smoke a pack or so a week. That was far worse than spending 1.5 hours outside running around. Let’s get this done on the course and not in the board room.

Anonymous said...

Rankings mean very little that is why the race is run the game is played and match is played. With the poor air there will be more factors than usual on who takes the positions for state-That is what it is all about qualifying for state. The rankings create interest all the talk or messaging can be done when the races are completed. Good Luck to everyone!! That is the great thing about high school competition or any level or activity of competition ANYTHING is possible!

Anonymous said...

If you feel it is unsafe to race... don’t. There is nothing forcing you to toe the line. Stay home, inside where it is safe. This is for fun, if you feel there is cause for health issues don’t do it.

Anonymous said...

Meet is on, stop complaining, everyone running have a great meet. And to all the volunteers and officials thanks in advance for your help. Please let's remember why the meet was postponed and the tragedy up North.

Anonymous said...

Will there be a "Bracket Buster" report comparing these projections with today's results (either actually raced, or by selection committee)? looks like that Amador versus Dougherty rivalry got settled on the dirt, the way it should have been for ALL of todays races.

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