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Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Northern Section pre-season Cross Country rankings

"Here are my pre-season rankings for the Northern Section based on section cross country and track results from last year." Scott Fairley, West Valley coach

You can check out my interview with coach Fairley from April 2014 at this LINK.

1.       Kelly Koehnen (12) Hamilton
2.       Karly Gutermuth (12) Trinity
3.       Morgan Gregory (11) UPrep
4.       Naomi Renfroe (12) Red Bluff
5.       Meri Krier (12) Yreka

1.       Shasta
2.       Yreka
3.       Sutter
4.       University Prep
5.       Foothill

1.       Andrew Skoy (12) Shasta
2.       Jack Emanuel (12) Chico
3.       Brian Hastings (11) Las Plumas
4.       Michael Cramer (12) UPrep
5.       Chris Meeder (12) West Valley

1.       University Prep
2.       Shasta
3.       Chico
4.       Yreka
5.       West Valley

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Well, preseason rankings are always interesting to look at, but these might be based a bit on subjectivity as well. On the girl’s side, my guess is Scott put Kelly Koehnen first based on her strong triple finish in track; however, on the cross country side, she ranked 3rd in the 5k and 2nd in the 3 mile from last year, while Karly Gutermuth was first in both; however, Karly also ranks 3rd in the 3200. These two will have to battle it out, but for preseason I would lean in favor of reversing those two. If Kelly has built upon her track performance, however, she will move into the number 1 slot easily. The real quandary here is Morgan Gregory in the three spot with an 8th place 5k, 9th 3 mile, and 8th 3200 ranking. I think Naomi Renfroe easily ranks third with a 5th 5k, 3rd 3 mile, and 2nd 3200 ranking. The 4th spot should go to one not ranked and oddly overlooked, Miranda Avalos from Shasta. Miranda is ranked 2nd in the 5k, 6th in the 3 mile, and 7th in the 3200, which I think easily puts her ahead of Gregory. Meri Krier is probably a good fit in the 5th position with a 4th 5k and 5th 3 mile ranking. So, just going by past performance and based more on stats and objectivity, a more accurate preseason picture would be:

1. Karly Gutermuth (12) Trinity
2. Kelly Koehnen (12) Hamilton
3. Naomi Renfroe (12) Red Bluff
4. Miranda Avalos (12) Shasta
5. Meri Krier (12) Yreka

On the boy’s side, again, there appears to be some subjectivity here and some heavy weight given to the recent track season.

Statistically, Jack Emanuel outranks Andrew Skoy in the 5k and 3 mile performances, Jack being first in both, and Andrew 2nd in both, but again, you have Andrew’s 1st position in the 3200 and Emanuel’s 4th, so six of one, half dozen of another…these two really at preseason are equal. Brian Hastings ranks 5th in the 5k and 3rd in the 3 mile, but he also has a 2nd place ranking in the 3200, so if we weigh recent track performances heavier, then Hastings is going to give Skoy and Emanuel a run for their money. Once again, there is a curve ball here with Michael Cramer in 4th with a 9th 5k, 7th 3 mile, and Michael is also an 800/1600 runner, so one not on the chart, Noah Bland, with his 3rd 5k, 6th 3 mile and 10th 3200 should be added, followed by Chris Meeder. Statistically, a better lineup would look like this:

1. Andrew Skoy (12) Shasta
1. Jack Emanuel (12) Chico
2. Brian Hastings (11) Las Plumas
3. Noah Bland (12) Shasta
4. Chris Meeder (12) West Valley
5. Michael Cramer (12) UPrep

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