Thursday, August 06, 2015

SJS XC 2015 Boys predictions by Julie Taggart


Julie is a cross-country/T&F parent at Oakmont High School.  She has put together predictions for each of the SJS divisions ((Varsity) Boys only!) which you can find at this LINK.
  • I used mostly 3200m and some 1600m data from this past track season, ignoring graduating seniors.  For those 1600m runners who skipped the 3200, I calculated their 3200 times using a fudge factor (these are indicated with "< >" characters).
  • These predictions assume that those 3200m and 1600m kids who ran track will also do XC, and will run with the same relative performance in XC as they did in track.
  • These predictions also assume that these kids will attend the same school this fall as they attended during track.
  • The predictions are formatted like XC results, specifically, what the SJS section finals would be, just based on those track times.  The school year is the year that each athlete will be this fall.
  • I calculated the team scores using cross-country-style scoring.  The "results" also show who transfers to the CIF State meet, both the teams and the individuals.

11 comments:

scott taggart said...

can you please edit the google predictions document - select all the text and set it to "courier" so it's more readable. Thanks.

Albert Caruana said...

Fixed.

Andrew said...

Marvelous work.

Unknown said...

Hey Julie and Scott. Thank you for doing this (and thanks to Albert for the site). This is Reaghan's Dad. I still keep an eye on the local xc scene every now and then.

Julie Taggart said...

Thanks for fixing. Looks great! Julie

Bill said...

Couple of things I noticed about your list:

1. The number of teams going to state have changed for 2015 season according to state site:
http://www.cifstate.org/sports/cross_country/2015_Team_Entries.pdf. D3 now gets 3 spots.

2. Athletic.net does the same hypothetical meet breakdown with results from cross-country 2014 season. Here is a link for D2 with just 9/10/11 runners: http://www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/Division/Rank.aspx?DivID=27455&D=4828&grades=9,10,11. I would argue probably a bit more accurate.


Anonymous said...

Athletic.net's hypothetical meet is based on pure statistical data of best times w/o subjective input, so from that point of view, would be more accurate.

Anonymous said...

Could you please update your rankings?

The CBEDs came out and Bella Vista has moved down to DII. This will make a major change in your DII predictions.

Albert Caruana said...

Are those CBEDs posted online yet?

Anonymous said...

The CBEDS have not came out yet. The only thing out is Leagues which has nothing to do with cross country divisions.

Harold Kuphaldt said...

CBEDS are out and posted in SJS

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