http://www.dyestatcal.com/ATHLETICS/XC/2010/rankings.htm
Who is missing? Who should move up? Who are the top individuals?
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
CCS Top 15 rankings courtesy of www.lynbrooksports.com
Posted by
Albert Caruana
at
9/15/2010 09:32:00 AM
2
comments
Labels: 2010 Cross Country, CCS Rankings '10
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Mt. Pleasant not fielding XC team this fall...
From the BVAL commissioner:
"Coaches, we just received notification that Mt. Pleasant will not be fielding a team this cross country season."
Posted by
Albert Caruana
at
9/14/2010 09:57:00 PM
2
comments
Labels: 2010 Cross Country
Monday, September 13, 2010
Earlybird Post-Meet story and records by Gus Ibarra...
Top Boys’ Teams
1 Mountain View 80:13 2008
2 Los Gatos 80:45 2006
3 Carlmont 80:49 2006
4 North Monterey County 81:10 2003
4 Bellarmine 81:10 2010
6 Willow Glen 81:23 2006
7 Carmel 81:39 2003
8 San Benito 81:41 1998
9 St. Ignatius 81:48 2006
10 Aptos 81:52 2008
Top Girls’ Teams
1 Los Gatos 96:01 2006
2 Mountain View 96:11 2008
3 Carlmont 96:22 2006
4 Aptos 96:57 2005
5 Gunn 96:59 2002
6 San Lorenzo Valley 97:17 2004
7 Monta Vista 97:34 2005
8 Mitty 97:51 2004
9 Half Moon Bay 98:20 2004
10 Carmel 98:30 2006
Top 25 Boys All Time
-
1 15:12 Petrillo, Matthew 12 Los Gatos 2006
2 15:13 Abdalla, Mohamed 12 Willow Glen 2007
3 15:18 D’Acquisto Domenic 11 Enterprise 2009
4 15:20 Estrada, Diego 12 Alisal 2007
5 15:21 Mineau, Jeremy 11 Menlo Atherton 2002
6 15:22 Fitzpatrick, Dylan 12 Carmel 2004
7 15:24 Dunn, Alex 11 S an Lorenzo Valley 2002
7 15:24 Morales, Ben 11 San Benito 1998
9 15:27 Johnson,Tyre 11 Palma 2007
9 15:27 Lema, Nohe 12 Willow Glen 2008
11 15:28 Hunt,Rylan 12 Aptos 2008
12 15:29 Rowe, Garrett 10 Mountain View 2008
12 15:29 Schuh, Parker 11 Mountain View 2009
14 15:31 Sitler, Ben 11 St. Francis 2004
15 15:33 Strum, Weston 12 Pioneer 2009
1615:34 Huerta, Nathan 11 North Monterey County 2003
16 15:34 Nelson, Tim 10 Liberty Christian 2000
16 15:34 Sartor, Matt 12 Enterprise 2000
19 15:35 Corona, Marcos 12 Willow Glen 2006
19 15:35 Knorr, Robbie 12 Valley Christian 2006
21 15:37 Myjer, Ian 11 Mountain View 2008
21 15:37 Signore, Luca 12 Lynbrook 2009
23 15:38 Lynch, Brennan 12 Santa Cruz 2008
24 15:40 Parsel, Patrick 12 Carmel 2003
25 15:42 Schneider, Kevin 11 Fremont 2004
Top 25 Girls All Time
-
1 17:16 Tyler,Tori 12 Gunn 2004
2 17:53 Gallagher, Michelle 12 Sacred Heart 2002
3 18:00 Hinds, Rachel 12 St. Ignatius 2010
4 18:02 Nevitt, Casey 12 Aptos 2002
5 18:07 Barnett, Stephanie 11 Leland 2007
6 18:08 Grelli, Melissa 11 Presentation 2002
7 18:09 Plank,Mckayla 10 Mitty 2002
7 18:09 Viehweg, Ciera 10 St. Ignatius 2002
7 18:09 Peterson, Jessie 12 Carlmont 2010
10 18:15 Fedronic, Justine 12Carlmont2008
10 18:15 Bergman, Jennifer 12 Valley Christian 2008
12 18:16 Kirschman, Lindsey 11 Enterprise 2004
13 18:17 Graham, Ruth 12 Gunn 2002
14 18:20 Follmar, Alicia 12 Saratoga 2004
15 18:21 Johnson, Taylor 11 San Lorenzo Valley 2006
16 18:23 Daly, Katy 10 St. Ignatius 2006
17 18:25 Hamilton, Samantha 9 Half Moon Bay 2006
18 18:28 Van Ausdall, Jessica 12 Aptos 2005
19 18:30 Jones,Cobbie 11 Live Oak 2004
20 18:31 Goodwin, Jill 12 Los Gatos 2006
20 18:31 Curtis, Chloe 11 Redondo Union 2008
22 18:32 Boyd, Amanda 12 San Benito 2005
23 18:33 Reynolds, Maryann 10 Mountain View 2006
24 18:34 Lee, Thea 12 Carmel 2006
24 18:34 Schnittger, Amy 11 Aptos 2006
Visit the meet website for complete coverage!
http://nmcxc.tripod.com
================
Just added from SJ Mercury News
Katz, Geiken run well for Cats at Early Bird
http://www.mercurynews.com/los-gatos/ci_16067391?nclick_check=1
Posted by
Albert Caruana
at
9/13/2010 10:45:00 AM
6
comments
Caveats with ratios by Sstoz Tes
sub-populations whose ratios are substantially different from the
overall picture. The basic assumption for producers and consumers alike
is that the sub-populations all have a close-enough ratio to the overall
population to make it all come out in the wash. Depending one one’s
attachment to accuracy and precision, this may or may not be the case.
The primary problem with calculating for sub-populations is that,
despite a population of over 9 000 data points, sub-categorizations can
easily become too small to be reliable. With that in mind, I have delved
into the results to see what makes it through that wash.
Because of interest in the S.S. state-meet qualifier and because it has
by far the largest population (2 529, compared to the 2nd largest at 1
350), I began to first reduce those results in search of more refined
ratios. I came up with some surprising results. Note that I have not
taken the time to do null hypothesis testing for the below. It has been
too long and I’d have to refresh my memory. If anyone is interested
enough to have me do formal testing, I’ll be happy to do it.
The first delving into sub-populations is the most obvious: separating
the ratios of boys and girls to the state-meet course.
boys: girls:
mu: 1.01863 1.00837
sigma: 0.02307 0.02485
The boys’s ratio is over 2,2 times greater than that of the girls. A
coach looking to predict his/her boys and/or girls team(s)
performance(s) would be led astray by using the overall ratio of
1,01377:1. S/he would predict times too fast for his/her boys and too
slow for his/her girls. Despite the relatively large difference in the
ratios, the error would amount to all of 4-seconds for the typical boy
and 6-seconds for the typical girl. Such are the margins between
disappointment and elation, particularly in the hyper-competitive team
battles. It is also interesting that the sigma shoots up, making the
confidence intervals even less useful.
Another obvious sub-population is class. Note that this is a sub-group
of a sub-group. The smallest sub-grouping (9th grade boys) has a
population of 69.
boys girls
9: 1.01931 1.01127
10: 1.01819 1.00814
11: 1.01786 1.00795
12: 1.01935 1.00748
Given the nerves associated with the state-meet, I am surprised that,
with the exception of the 9th grade girls, there is no apparent trend
here. Though it is conventional wisdom that experience helps with
state-meet performance, perhaps this is not a major factor, or if it is
perhaps the trend is hidden by the relative state-meet experience of the
different classes. Though it is marginally relevant, I have put in the
below tables to show the breakdown of first time state-meet particpants
in any given race at the state-meet:
boys girls
1st state-meet 10th graders: 23,2% 27,3%
1st state-meet 11th graders: 30,1% 22,7%
1st state-meet 12th graders: 32,6% 18,5%
1st state-meet: 56,7% 54,8%
2nd state-meet: 24,9% 22,6%
3rd state-meet: 10,5% 12,0%
4th state-meet: 03,1% 06,0%
unknown: 04,8% 04,7%
Age or relative mental maturity might be other factors associated with
class and performance, but there are few things in the world less
mentally mature than a 9th grade boy, and they seem to perform at par
with the other grades. Perhaps the 9th graders who make it to the
state-meet are a special breed.
Parsing out the ratios of first time state-meet participants might yield
a worthwhile variable, but for now that is a bridge too far (for me) =)
A sub-group that M’r Beal wondered about was “packs,” particularly in
girls’s races. His qualitative observation is that those in the back of
the pack have a relatively difficult time at M’t SAC, and so their ratio
to the state-meet would be lower (indicating a relatively slow time at
the state-meet qualifier). Perhaps other state-meet qualifiers with
courses less difficult than M’t SAC would not show this difference.
z-score (range) boys girls
-1.6 -1.69 1.02994 1.02158
-1.5 -1.59 1.02582 1.02024
-1.4 -1.49 1.02648 1.02264
-1.3 -1.39 1.02628 1.02092
-1.2 -1.29 1.02480 1.02105
-1.1 -1.19 1.02125 1.02137
-1,0 -1.09 1.03167 1.01484
-0.9 -0.99 1.02628 1.01877
-0.8 -0.89 1.02734 1.01399
-0.7 -0.79 1.02697 1.01426
-0.6 -0.69 1.02302 1.01082
-0.5 -0.59 1.02587 1.01577
-0.4 -0.49 1.02393 1.01284
-0.3 -0.39 1.02068 1.01066
-0.2 -0.29 1.02115 1.00870
-0.1 -0.19 1.02028 1.01058
0,0 -0.09 1.01685 1.01282
0,0 0.09 1.01853 1.00716
0.1 0.19 1.01705 1.00423
0.2 0.29 1.01579 1.00938
0.3 0.39 1.01438 1.00464
0.4 0.49 1.01720 1.01355
0.5 0.59 1.01199 0.99675
0.6 0.69 1.01215 1.00136
0.7 0.79 1.01280 0.99927
0.8 0.89 1.01136 1.00085
0.9 0.99 1.01655 0.99942
1,0 1.09 1.01399 0.98704
1.1 1.19 1.01192 1.00213
1.2 1.29 1.01453 0.98729
1.3 1.39 1.02321 0.99459
1.4 1.49 1.00753 1.00358
1.5 1.59 1.00434 1.00899
1.6 1.69 1.00813 1.00359
1.7 1.79 0.99861 1.00034
1.8 1.89 1.00730 1.00897
1.9 1.99 0.99676 0.99489
2,0 2.09 0.99190 0.98883
I tested the packs by segregating the population into boys and girls,
then ordering the results by time at the state-meet qualifier. I then
calculated a z-score for each runner’s state-meet qualifier time (a
z-score simply places a single data-point in its proper place on a
distribution; nearly all data fits between -1,96 and +1,96). I bundled
runners into z-score intervals of 0,1, only graphing those groups with
>/= 10 athletes. Using the z-score as a basis for segregation has the
advantage of putting like-quality runners into the same group in a more
systematic fashion then percentiles. Rather than a grouping being
exclusively based on numerical order (i.e. the 90th percentile being the
fastest 127 runners, even if there is a substantial drop-off in quality
at, say, the 120th place), the z-score is exclusively based off of the
quality of a performance (i.e. the grouping between 1,00 - 1,09 standard
deviations).
For the girls, there is a steady trend down in the ratio all the way
from the fastest (at z = -1,69) to z = +1,3 group, which in this
distribution encompasses over 91% of the total population of girls. This
is to say that the state-meet qualifier is relatively slower (or the
state-meet relatively fast) the slower runner you are, as M’r Beal
suggested. A more detailed look shows that the fastest girls’s ratios
are on par with the overall boys’s--a bit over 1,02:1. By z =0,0, the
ratio drops below 1,02:1, then steadily erodes to less than 0,99:1
through z = +1,29. From z = +1,3 - +1,69 (n = 45), though, the trend
steadily reverses, averaging 1,0074:1 (this is still below the overall
girls’s average of 1,00837:1). From z = +1,7 through the end of the
distribution (n = 66, and which extends all the way out to +5,86!), the
downward trend re-asserts itself, averaging 0,98:1. Besides the small
group from z = +1,3 - +1,69, M’r Beal’s observation
appears correct.
For the boys, the overall trend goes from 1,03:1 down to 0,99:1. There
is one anomaly that is difficult to account for, though this is probably
influenced by the relatively small numbers involved. From z = -1.69 -
-1,0 (n = 158), the ratio trends steadily down from 1,030:1 to 1,021:1,
but then jumps to 1,032:1. After this, the ratio again steadily drops,
eventually to 1,01:1 through z = +0,89 (n = 912). It then flattens or
slightly rises through z = +1,3 (n = 88), then drops again, ending at
just above 0,99:1 (n = 108). Again, besides a small group, M’r Beal’s
observation that slower runners run relatively slower at the S.S.
state-meet qualifier (or, possibly, faster at the C.I.F. state-meet)
appears to be true.
A last potential variable that I tested for was divisional ratios. I
assumed going in that the smaller schools would have lower ratios, if
only because they have slower runners and, as seen above, slower runners
run relatively slower at M’t SAC. Though in both boys and girls there
is a trend down from d. 1 to d. 5, it is not as smooth or prominent as I
expected, particularly for the boys. The most prominent example of a
difference in ratio is that of the d. 5 girls, whose ratio is 1,002:1
compared to 1,017:1 for d. 1 & d. 2 girls. This sudden drop is not
surprising since the d. 5 girls run 13% - 14% slower than d. 1. It is
surprising that the d. 5 boys, a group that runs 9% - 10% slower than
the d. 1 boys, do not show more of a drop-off.
mu : mu CIF mu SS
d. 1 b.: 1.02050 00:16:6 00:15:47
d. 2 b.: 1.01801 00:16:31 00:16:14
d. 3 b.: 1.02336 00:16:39 00:16:16
d. 4 b.: 1.01518 00:17:14 00:16:59
d. 5 b.: 1.01634 00:17:37 00:17:21
mu : mu CIF mu SS
d. 1 g.: 1.01073 00:19:6 00:18:55
d. 2 g.: 1.01068 00:19:6 00:18:55
d. 3 g.: 1.00821 00:19:45 00:19:36
d. 4 g.: 1.00926 00:20:26 00:20:15
d. 5 g: 1.00219 00:21:35 00:21:33
The only variables that seem to affect the ratio between the SS
state-meet qualifier and the state-meet are sex and a runner’s time at
the state-meet qualifier. It is possible that there is a weak
relationship by division, and no apparent relationship based on class.
It would be interesting to test whether relative experience affects
performance.
Posted by
Albert Caruana
at
9/13/2010 09:09:00 AM
2
comments
Labels: 2010 Cross Country, Sstoz Tes stats
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Ed Sias Invitational coverage courtesy of flotrack.org
You can check out tons of interviews with the top performers from today's meet at the following link:
http://www.flotrack.org/videos/coverage/view/237548-2010-ed-sias-cross-country-invitational
Such as the following interview with the fastest girl, Granada HS freshman, Sophie Hartley:
Track and Field Videos on Flotrack
some newspaper coverage:
Vacaville High School boys cross country team finishes second in Martinez event
and from Santa Rosa Press Democrat website:
http://www.northbay.com/running/10xced.html
Posted by
Albert Caruana
at
9/12/2010 12:05:00 AM
14
comments
Labels: 2010 Cross Country, Web Finds
Saturday, September 11, 2010
NorCal Saturday results...
Earlybird Invitational at Toro Park courtesy of www.lynbrooksports.com
http://www.dyestatcal.com/ATHLETICS/XC/2010/ebird.htm
Ed Sias Invitational courtesy courtesy of dyestatcal.com
http://rise.espn.go.com/track-and-xc/california/2010-xc/Results/September/11-Ed-Sias-Inv.aspx?pursuit=TrackAndXC
Pictures from the Ed Sias Invitational will be posted at the following link:
http://sportsimagewire.com/home.html
Wolverine Invitational courtesy of dyestatcal.com
http://rise.espn.go.com/track-and-xc/california/2010-xc/Results/September/11-Wolverine-Inv.aspx?pursuit=TrackAndXC
Sierra Invitational courtesy of dyestatcal.com
http://rise.espn.go.com/track-and-xc/california/2010-xc/Results/September/11-Sierra-Inv.aspx?pursuit=TrackAndXC
More results will be posted as I find them as well as newspaper articles covering above races and more.
Posted by
Albert Caruana
at
9/11/2010 05:58:00 PM
20
comments
Friday, September 10, 2010
NorCal results and newspaper coverage...
Earlybird Invitational gets cross country off and running
http://www.thecalifornian.com/article/20100909/SPORTS/100909037/Earlybird-Invitational-gets-cross-country-off-and-running
RUNNING: Baler boys solid at TCAL Jamboree
http://www.freelancenews.com/sports/268537-running-baler-boys-solid-at-tcal-jamboree
Beckwith leads Bears to team title in XC meet
http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/show_story.php?id=18195
Anderson ready for cross country season (Half Moon Bay HS)
http://www.hmbreview.com/articles/2010/09/08/sports/doc4c87c67c1aff2443325409.txt
Boys Cross Country Preview (Las Lomas HS)
http://laslomaspage.com/?p=807
Boys' Cross Country restarts varsity roster (Palo Alto HS)
http://voice.paly.net/node/23470
Carlmont's Peterson, M-A's Beckwith best in PAL meet
http://www.mercurynews.com/peninsula/ci_16040058?nclick_check=1
Posted by
Albert Caruana
at
9/10/2010 06:45:00 PM
3
comments
Labels: 2010 Cross Country, Newspaper Articles
Stinson Beach Relays
http://www.marinij.com/sports/ci_16027791
Drake makes impressive sweep at the beach
http://sananselmofairfax.patch.com/articles/drake-makes-impressive-sweep-at-the-beach
Will get results posted later.
Posted by
Albert Caruana
at
9/10/2010 07:10:00 AM
0
comments
Labels: 2010 Cross Country, Newspaper Articles
Thursday, September 09, 2010
Course Performance Population Distributions
Check out this tool for graphing the frequency distribution of performances at many California cross country courses.
http://www.xcstats.com/course_
The simplest way to think about it is that it gives an SAT score for running. For a given performance, it shows where that time stands in relation to the overall population of high school runners.
Here is the graph for Crystal Springs. As shown, the most common time for boys varsity runners looks to be 17:45 and for non-varsity around 18:50. (These are the highest points on the curves). A time of 19:00 is faster than 61% of all runners and faster than 31% of varsity runners.
The graphs are generated by taking the results of races from 2006 to present, then grouping the performances into bins, for example 16:10 to 16:20, then graphing the number of races who fell into that range. It’s quite simple. For the statistics minded, we used the number of bins based on the square root of the number of races, then eliminated any courses where the bin size was over 20 seconds. The amount of source data ranged from 500 races to over 48,000 at Mt. Sac. The graphs are normalized so that the area under the curve is 1.
Enjoy!
Mike Sherwood
www.xcstats.com
PS – We also have a course time converter which simply uses the average times of runners to determine the conversion factors. Not nearly as fancy or accurate as Sstoz’s work!
Posted by
Albert Caruana
at
9/09/2010 07:30:00 PM
6
comments
Labels: 2010 Cross Country, xcstats.com
Monte Vista Invitational Summary by Mike Davis
Tuesday, Sept 7th
http://rise.espn.go.com/track-and-xc/california/2010-xc/Results/September/07-Monte-Vista-Invitational.aspx
Posted by
Albert Caruana
at
9/09/2010 10:16:00 AM
1 comments
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