Thursday, November 20, 2008

NCS Predictions by Peter Brewer


Race Predictions:
(in collaboration with Albert Caruana and Harry Skandara)

Division I
Boys
1. Amador Valley -- clear winners in EBAL very tough this year.
2. College Park -- soph Jeff Bickert leads aggressive squad -- dominated the BVAL
3. Monte Vista -- Mustangs have Mike Roderick show up front , but stumbled a bit at EBAL finals
4. Granada -- lost #3 man to injury, but still have strong cluster
5. Castro Valley -- nipped by Bishop O’Dowd at HAAL finals; look to regroup

Girls:
1. Castro Valley -- Trojans able to group under a minute in HAAL win
2. College Park -- Falcons swamp DVAL competition; Alycia Cridenbring leads strong group
3. California -- Colleen Lilllig continues to roll; the Grizzlies took third in tough EBAL
4. Granada -- Matadors were barely edged by California in EBAL
5. Monte Vista -- placed 5th on home course in EBAL but have very good 1-2 punch

Division II
Boys
1) De La Salle -- tough Spartans 1st at Stanford, top NCS time at Mt. SAC but 2nd in EBAL
2) Santa Rosa -- Rory MacLeod and Panthers dominated NBL
3) Washington -- Huskies rampaged through the MVAL
4) Montgomery -- Vikings were 3rd in NBL behind Santa Rosa and Maria Carrillo
5) Alameda -- Hornets are power in ACCAL

Girls
1) Livermore -- Diana George and crew are legitimate; beat Carondelet easily at EBAL
2) Carondelet -- Cougars have had up-and-down performances but are among state’s best
3) Casa Grande -- Jacque Taylor leads solid crew; the best of the SCL
4) Montgomery -- gave Maria Carrillo a scare in NBL finals
5) Santa Rosa -- 3rd in NBL behind Maria Carrillo and Montgomery

Division III
Boys
1) Petaluma -- Coach Jim Lynch has crew more than ready for post-season; swept SCL 1-6
2) Campolindo -- the Cougars are top-notch squad themselves
3) Las Lomas -- The Knights were the only DFAL team in sight of Campolindo
4) Maria Carrillo -- the Pumas chased Santa Rosa in the SCL finals
5) Redwood -- perennial power out of MCAL

Girls
1) Maria Carrillo -- even with Curtin twins subpar easily took NBL
2) Campolindo -- in a roll with frosh Carrie Verdon leading pack
3) Petaluma -- Trojans only team to keep Casa Grande honest in SCL
4) Alhambra -- Jewelz Andrew led Bulldogs to upset 2nd in DFAL
5) Las Lomas -- Knights 3rd in DFAL

Division IV

Boys
1) St. Mary's Berkeley -- took a one-point loss to Albany in BSAL final -- will be hungry
2) San Rafael -- 2nd in MCAL behind Redwood
3) Tamalpais -- 3rd in MCAL behind Redwood
4) Justin-Siena -- 5th in MCAL behind Redwood
5) Moreau Catholic -- 4th in HAAL

Girls
1) St. Mary's Berkeley -- one of the state’s best
2) Piedmont -- 2nd behind St. Mary’s in BSAL
3) Terra Linda -- 3rd in MCAL
4) Moreau Catholic -- 3rd in HAAL
5) Arcata -- depleted team took 2nd in HDNL; will be at full strength

Division V
Boys
1) University -- simply the best this year
2) Berean Christian -- 2nd in DVAL
3) Redwood Christian -- 1st in BCL East
4) College Prep -- 2nd in BCL Est
5) St. Joseph Notre Dame -- 4th in BSAL

Girls
1) University -- Red Devils still strong
2) College Prep -- class of BCL East
3) Marin Academy -- chased University well
4) Head Royce -- 2nd in BCL East
5) Lick Wilmerding -- 3rd in BCL West

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hmmm. Petaluma Girls will be 5th in DII and 3rd in DIII? That's some double!!!

Albert Caruana said...

Good catch.

Petaluma is in Division III this year so let me see who belongs as the 5th team in Division II.

Anonymous said...

Should be amazing day. Great weather and conditions should post some very fast times. Do we know a team time course record for boys and girls at Hayward?

Albert Caruana said...

That's a great question.

I will have to do some research but will see what I can come up with in terms of team times.

mike marlin said...

i'd be interested in the official team time for boys. The fastest i've seen was 15:46 average by petaluma last year. Do they seem likely to break it again?

Albert Caruana said...

The following is from Peter Brewer and CVHS records. This shows the years the NCS meet has been held at Hayward and other locations.

1978 3A South Hayward
1979 2A South Hayward
1980 2A South ?
1985 2A South Crown Beach
1986 2A South Hidden Valley Pk
1987 2A Hayward
1988 2A Sonoma State
1989 2A Merritt College
1990 NCS Finals Garin Park MOC Finals Hayward
1991 NCS Finals Hayward
1992 NCS Finals Mills College
1993 NCS Finals Newhall Park
1994 NCS Finals MIlls College
1995 NCS Finals Newhall Park
1996 NCS Finals Newhall Park
1997 NCS Finals Ukiah HS
1998 NCS Finals Newhall Park
1999 NCS Finals Hayward
2000 NCS Finals Ukiah
2001 NCS Finals Hayward
2002 NCS Finals Hayward
2003 NCS Finals Ukiah
2004 NCS Finals Hayward
2005 NCS Finals Hayward
2006 NCS Finals Hayward
2007 NCS Finals Hayward

I will go back and check the years that it was held at Hayward and see if I can come up with the top team times.

Albert Caruana said...

Fastest boys' team times at Hayward from 1999, 2001, '02, '04, '05, '06 and '07.

1) Petaluma '07 78:52
2) Monte Vista '07 78:59
3) De La Salle '05 79:36
4) Campolindo '04 79:41
5) De La Salle '07 79:43
6) Amador Valley '07 79:46
7) San Ramon Valley '02 79:49
8) College Park '06 80:12
9) Liberty '07 80:13
10) Piedmont '05 80:27

Albert Caruana said...

Fastest girls' team times at Hayward from 1999, 2001, '02, '04, '05, '06 and '07.

1) Carondelet '06 91:47
2) Carondelet '07 92:14
3) Maria Carrillo '04 92:42
4) Bishop O'Dowd '04 92:46
5) Montgomery '02 93:19
6) College Park '02 93:26
7) Miramonte '05 93:28
8) Campolindo '07 93:45
9) College Park '04 94:02
10) Ukiah '01 94:13

John Pelster said...

Thanks for the research Albert and Peter. I suspect some of those top team times will tumble on Saturday.

Sterling Lockert said...

I think there was a typo

1) Petaluma '08 77:59
2) Petaluma '07 78:52
3) Monte Vista '07 78:59
4) De La Salle '05 79:36
5) Campolindo '04 79:41
6) De La Salle '07 79:43
7) Amador Valley '07 79:46
8) San Ramon Valley '02 79:49
9) College Park '06 80:12
10) Liberty '07 80:13

Anonymous said...

Arrogant

Anonymous said...

alliteration

Anonymous said...

really sterling?

Anonymous said...

quote\"I think there was a typo

1) Petaluma '08 77:59
2) Petaluma '07 78:52
3) Monte Vista '07 78:59
4) De La Salle '05 79:36
5) Campolindo '04 79:41
6) De La Salle '07 79:43
7) Amador Valley '07 79:46
8) San Ramon Valley '02 79:49
9) College Park '06 80:12
10) Liberty '07 80:13"/quote


negged

Matthew Duffy said...

Dude, Sterling would not have done that. It was someone who was using his name because they do not like him.

Anonymous said...

he absolutely would have. remember what he said about rory being sick for the 2008 NCS track meet? and i don't really think anyone else cares besides sterling, so i think we should stop giving him attention for what he said ;) and i know that last was rather hypocritical.

Anonymous said...

So, the winner is Campo gets the fastest time 77:55 and Petaluma 78:08