Final NCS Rankings before THE meet this Saturday...

Division I
Girls - (Top 2 teams advance to state meet):
1.    Granada
2.    College Park
3.    Amador Valley
4.    Monte Vista
5.    Livermore

Boys - (Top 2 teams advance to state meet):

1.    De La Salle

2.    College Park

3.    Amador Valley

4.    Livermore

5.    Monte Vista

Division II

Girls - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):

1.    San Ramon Valley

2.    Santa Rosa

3.    Carondelet

4.    Clayton Valley

5.    Casa Grande

Boys - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):

1.    San Ramon Valley

2.    Santa Rosa

3.    Mt. Eden

4.    Alameda

5.    Casa Grande

Division III

Girls - (Top 4 teams advance to state meet):

1.    Campolindo

2.    Acalanes

3.    Maria Carrillo

4.    Petaluma

5.   Redwood

Boys - (Top 4 teams advance to state meet):

1.    Campolindo

2.    Petaluma

3.    Piner

4.    Las Lomas

5.    Maria Carrillo

Division IV

Girls - (Top 3 teams advance to state meet):

1.    Sir Francis Drake

2.    Tamalpais

3.    Terra Linda

4.    St. Mary’s Berkeley

5.    Moreau Catholic

Boys - (Top 4 teams advance to state meet):

1.    San Rafael

2.    Sir Francis Drake

3.    Tamalpais

4.    St. Mary’s Berkeley

5.    University

Division V

Girls - (Top 5 teams advance to state meet):

1.    University

2.    College Prep

3.    Urban

4.    Branson

5.    Marin Academy

Boys - (Top 5 teams advance to state meet):

1.    Urban

2.    St. Joseph’s

3.    International

4.    College Prep

5.    Sonoma Academy

Comments?  This is one person's opinion (mine) so feel free to chime in your thoughts on what could possibly take place this Saturday.

NCS Division III Preview by Northgate coach Peter Brewer...

11/7
D-III Girls
1.    Campolindo -- The Cougars did not take long to rebound from a narrow dual meet loss to Acalanes to post a convincing 23-46 league finals win over the Dons.  Carrie Verdon and Grace Orders went 1-2, a minute faster than teammate Rachel Meadows in third.
2.    Acalanes -- The Dons are not shabby either, and still state-ranked.  Amy Hollshwander was their leader in the DFAL finals.
3.    Petaluma -- The Trojans have put together quite a group in the late season, taking the SCL crown over a feisty Casa Grande squad.  Kirby Franklin is the lead runner.
4.    Maria Carillo -- the Pumas are only a notch behind Petaluma, if that.  Just a tick behind Santa Rosa at the NBL finals, Maria was lead by Brianna Thigpen.  
5.    Las Lomas -- the Knights were an invisible third in the DFAL showdown between Campolindo and Acalanes.    Clare Orton is their frontrunner.

Other individuals to watch for are Kathleen Kileen of Redwood, Shelby Nickles of Dublin, Courtney Madsen of Novato, Maria Diaz of Bishop O’Dowd,  Ami Boucher of Northgate

D-III  Boys
1.    Campolindo -- the Cougars have excellent grouping and depth, to go along with running fast.  Hard to beat.  They easily took the DFAL title behind individual winner Thomas Joyce.
2.    Petaluma -- Forrest Shaffer is a top runner in the state and provides the Trojans with a great frontrunner.  Even though they devastated the SCL  finals, hey don’t have quite the same depth as Campolindo
3.    Piner -- PIner boasts the top ranked D-III individual in the state in Luis Luna, and he has a great young group behind him.  They narrowly beat out Maria Carillo for the NBL title.
4.    Maria Carillo -- Daniel Hauptmann leads the Pumas, who were but a step or two away from beating Piner in the NBL showdown.
5.    Las Lomas -- the Knights feature an interchangeable cast.  They took second behind Campolindo at the DFAL finals with Carl Gracely in front for them.
6.    Eureka -- the Loggers are the stealth team from the north ,but have a very good tandem in front with Nick Krause and Robin McDonnell.  They beat Maria Carillo at the Viking Invite in early September, but lost to them at Stanford.
    others -- Bishop O’Dowd carved out a share of the dual meet HAAL title behind Sam Kane and Calvin John. 
    Miramonte was only a point away from Las Lomas at the DFAL finals.  Tyler Hanson  and Jamie Fehrnstrom were their top finishers at the DFAL finals.
    Individuals to watch for are Tyler Troxel of Acalanes, Danny Stalters of Northgate, Nolan Tonkyn of Albany, Evan Quigley of Alhambra

NCS Individual Divisional Rankings

Boys
Division I
1)  Ben Eversole Castro Valley HS
2)  Jeff Bickert College Park HS
3)  Anthony Ortolon College Park HS
4)  Anthony Martore Castro Valley HS
5)  Michael Johnson De La Salle HS

Division II
1)  Parker Deuel San Ramon Valley HS
2)  Matt Devries San Ramon Valley HS
3)  Nolan Peterson Washington HS
4)  Brian Hardy San Ramon Valley HS
5)  Ben Tarango Casa Grande HS

Division III
1)  Luis Luna Piner HS
2)  Forrest Shaffer Petaluma HS
3)  Thomas Joyce Campolindo HS
4)  Dylan Laucher Campolindo HS
5)  Jamie Fehrnstrom Miramonte HS

Division IV

1)  Daniel Milechman Tamalpais HS

2)  John Lawson Sir Francis Drake HS

3)  Ned Tannenbaum University HS

4)  Trevor Ehlenbach San Rafael HS

5)  Alexi Taylor Cardinal Newman HS

Division V

1)  Cole Williams Urban HS

2)  Gabe Arias St. Joseph's HS
3)  Nick Ratto St. Joseph's HS

4)  Sean Judkins-Boeri Urban HS

5)  Ben Rainero-de Haan International HS

Girls

Division I

1)  Sophie Hartley Granada HS

2)  Carina Novell Granada HS
3)  Kelsey Santisteban Castro Valley HS

4)  Natalie Dimits Livermore HS

5)  Elaine McVay California HS

Division II

1)  Julie Nacouzi Montgomery HS

2)  Alexandra Tate Clayton Valley HS

3)  Kelly Nordine San Ramon Valley HS

4)  Amber Peirsol Windsor HS
5)  Ashley Moffet Casa Grande HS

Division III

1)  Carrie Verdon Campolindo HS

2)  Grace Orders Campolindo HS
3)  Shelby Nickles Dublin HS

4)  Lauren Kraus Maria Carrillo HS

5)  Courtney Madsen Novato HS

Division IV

1)  Spencer Moore St. Mary's Berkeley HS
2)  Nicole Lane El Molino HS

3)  Ellie Ryan Sir Francis Drake HS

4)  Aneka Adeni Moreau Catholic HS

5)  Nicole Petersen Piedmont HS

Division V

1)  Lucy McCullough Marin Academy

2)  Holland Reynolds University HS

3)  Julia Maxwell Branson HS

4)  Bridget Blum University HS
5)  Adrienne Strait College Prep HS

The above lists are just my best guess at this point of the top 5 individuals in each division.  Feel free to point out any obvious changes or omissions. 

NCS Mid-Season Individual Top 10 (Boys and Girls)

Boys

10)  Dylan Laucher Campolindo HS Division III

9)  Anthony Ortolon College Park HS Division I

8)  Cole Williams Urban HS Division V

7)  Thomas Joyce Campolindo HS Division III

6)  Jeff Bickert College Park HS Division I

5)  Parker Deuel San Ramon Valley HS Division II

4)  Ben Eversole Castro Valley HS Division I

3)  Forrest Shaffer Petaluma HS Division III

2)  Daniel Milechman Tamalpais HS Division IV

1)  Luis Luna Piner HS Division III

GirlsI

10)  Natalie Dimits Livermore HS Division I

9)  Carina Novell Granada HS Division I

8)  Holland Reynolds University HS Division V
7)  Kelsey Santisteban Castro Valley HS Division I

6)  Lucy McCullough Marin Academy Division V
5)  Shelby Nickles Dublin HS Division III

4)  Grace Orders Campolindo HS Division III

3)  Sophie Hartley Granada HS Division I

2)  Julie Nacouzi Montgomery Division II

1)  Carrie Verdon Campolindo HS Division III

Feel free to comment below.  It's very difficult to narrow it down to 10 runners as many runners have not raced head to head.  Also, different races yield different results so I gave the more recent results more weight.  Feel free to add runners who you think belong on the above lists.  Include their accomplishments.  

NCS Divisional Rankings as of 9/30/10

 

Boys
Division I (Top 2 qualify to state meet)
1)  College Park HS
2)  De La Salle HS
3)  Amador Valley HS
4)  Monte Vista HS
5)  Castro Valley HS
On the bubble:  Livermore HS and Granada HS.

Division II (Top 3 qualify to state meet)
1)  San Ramon Valley HS
2)  Washington HS
3)  Montgomery HS
4)  Santa Rosa HS
5)  Casa Grande HS
On the bubble:  Mt. Eden HS, Alameda HS.

Division III (Top 4 qualify to state meet)
1)  Campolindo HS (#3 in state)
2)  Las Lomas HS (#7 in state)
3)  Petaluma HS (#10 in state)
4)  Piner HS
5)  Maria Carrillo HS
On the bubble:  Eureka HS, Acalanes HS, Alhambra HS, Bishop O'Dowd HS, Northgate HS and Miramonte HS.

Division IV (Top 4 qualify to state meet)
1)  SF University HS (#6 in state)
2)  Sir Francis Drake HS
3)  San Rafael HS (#9 in state)
4)  St. Mary's Berkeley HS
5)  Tamalpais HS
On the bubble:  Terra Linda HS, Cardinal Newman HS, Moreau Catholic HS and Willits HS.

Division V (Top 5 qualify to state meet)
1)  Urban HS (#4 in state)
2)  St. Joseph Notre Dame HS
3)  Marin Academy HS
4)  College Prep School
5)  Stuart Hall HS
On the bubble:  Lick Wilmerding HS and International HS.

Girls

Division I (Top 2 qualify to state meet) 

1)  Granada HS (#10 in state)

2)  College Park HS

3)  Amador Valley HS

4)  Monte Vista HS

5)  Castro Valley HS

On the bubble:  Livermore HS.

Division II (Top 3 qualify to state meet)

1)  Carondelet HS

2)  San Ramon Valley HS

3)  Clayton Valley HS

4)  Washington HS

5)  Santa Rosa HS

On the bubble:  Casa Grande HS.

Division III (Top 4 qualify to state meet)

1)  Campolindo HS (#1 in state)

2)  Acalanes HS (#6 in state)

3)  Maria Carrillo HS (#10 in state)

4)  Las Lomas HS

5)  Bishop O'Dowd HS

On the bubble:  Northgate HS, Redwood HS, Petaluma HS and Eureka HS.

Division IV (Top 3 qualify to state meet)

1)  Sir Francis Drake HS (#2 in state)

2)  Terra Linda HS 

3)  Tamalpais HS

4)  Moreau Catholic HS
5)  St. Mary's Berkeley HS

On the bubble:  Piedmont HS.

Division V (Top 5 qualify to state meet)

1)  University HS (#2 in state)

2)  College Prep School (#3 in state)

3)  Urban School (#4 in state)

4)  Branson HS (#5 in state)

5)  Marin Academy HS (#10 in state)

On the bubble:  Lick Wilmerding HS (#9 in state), Sonoma Academy and Convent HS.

Feel free to comment on above rankings.  With the help of several coaches, I placed the teams in the way things look right now.  If you feel I am missing any teams, let me know.  If there are teams flying under the radar right now, let us know about those teams as well.  I won't be offended if you think I am way off with some of the rankings.  Fire away!

NCS Rankings coming up for all divisions

For now, feel free to chime in on who you think are the top 5 teams in each division for both boys and girls.  Who are the top individuals in each division?  Who is under the radar right now but will be a contender in mid to late November?  Who are the top freshmen?  Who has improved the most?

NCS Pre-Season Top 10 Individuals (Boys and Girls)...

Boys
10)  Robin O'Connell Eureka HS Division III
9)  Nick Kraus Eureka HS Division III
8)  Anthony Martore Castro Valley HS Division I
7)  Dylan Laucher Campolindo HS Division III
6)  Forrest Shaffer Petaluma HS Division III
5)  Parker Deuel San Ramon Valley HS Division II
4)  Ben Eversole Castro Valley HS Division I
3)  Jeff Bickert College Park HS Division I
2)  Daniel Milechman Tamalpais HS Division IV
1)  Luis Luna Piner HS Division III

Girls
10)  Amber Peirsol Windsor HS Division II
9)  Kelsey Santisteban Castro Valley HS Division I
8)  Elaine McVay California HS Division I
7)  Natalie Dimits Livermore HS Division I
6)  Grace Orders Campolindo HS Division III
5)  Holland Reynolds University HS Division V
4)  Jennie Callan University HS Division V
3)  Carrie Verdon Campolindo HS Division III
2)  Lucy McCullough Marin Academy Division V
1)  Julie Nacouzi Montgomery Division II

Feel free to comment below.  Who should move up?  Down?  Who did I miss?  

2010 NCS Division II Pre-Season Rankings...

2010 will have a different look to it in this division as some of the familiar faces will be competing collegiately.  NCS will crown new Division II champions in both races (boys and girls) as the defending champions (College Park) will now wade in the more turbulent Division I waters.  The top five individual boys from the '09 race are also gone from this division.  Jacque Taylor has finally graduated after what seemed like 7 years at Casa Grande (always seems that way when a runner is very competitive as a freshman).  

Taking a look at the boys' field first, the favorite going into next season will be San Ramon Valley which won the ultra competitive Division I race last year.  They lose the majority of that juggernaut team but return junior to be Parker Deuel who will battle for the individual crown.  They also return #6 man Matt Devries who participated on one of the top teams in Northern CA as a freshman and they did field one of the better Junior Varsity teams in this area.  Nipping at their heels will be Santa Rosa (last year's 2nd place team).  They lose their #1 superstar runner, Reesey Byers but return runners #2 through #5 (Kurt Wendler, Jonathan Peck, Jordan Guerrero and Michael Tomasi).

If the two teams above aren't able to live up to their pre-season rankings, then the next team in line will be Casa Grande.  Following a highly successful Track and Field season, Casa will be hungry to improve their 4th place finish from last year's MOC race as they will be led by senior Austin Minnick.  Mt. Eden, last year's 5th place team, returns the whole kit and kaboodle and will be in the mix as well with senior Marvin Nugal.

The race for the individual title will go through Parker Deuel of San Ramon Valley.  Anyway you look at it, he has to be the favorite.  In the Division I final last year, Deuel finished in 5th place running 15:43.  During the Track and Field season, he recorded a 1:57.02 800, 4:17.30 1600 and 9:22.43 3200.  The fastest returning runner in this division will be David Brody of American HS who finished in 6th place here last year running 15:57.  Also in the hunt will be Jamie Goldfield of Montgomery (16:11), Marvin Nugal of Mt. Eden (16:23), and Eric Morford of Heritage (16:27).

Picking the top teams on the girls side is a bit more difficult as freshmen girls tend to make more of an impact.  With that in mind, my picks for this coming season are based on what happened last year and what teams return the most fire power this coming season.  Last year, the San Ramon Valley girls missed a state meet berth in Division I by a mere 4 points to Castro Valley (101 to 105).  They return every runner from a team that will certainly be hungry to match the NCS championship won by the SRV boys last year.  A title this year would give the SRV girls their first NCS title since 1992.

Who has been one of most consistent team in this division over the last 6 years?  That would be Carondelet which has had the following finishes (2004-2nd, 2005-3rd, 2006-1st, 2007-1st, 2008-2nd and 2009-3rd).  Despite losing #1 runner Heather Cerney, Carondelet returns runners #2, #3, #4 and #6.  Based on history and the likelihood that an impact freshman or two will contribute to their team, Carondelet will be a threat.

Next in line will be usual suspects in this division, Santa Rosa and Montgomery.  Santa Rosa returns the majority of their team (#2 Kelly Brooks, #3 Sadia Ibrahim, #4 Eva Herbst, #5 Emily Rozga, #6 Carly Miller and #7 Marina Lecoeuche) but Montgomery returns the #1 runner in this division, defending champion Julie Nacouzi.  Casa Grande edged out Carondelet by a mere point for 2nd place (68 to 69) last season and although they lose Taylor and Dominique Ratto, I suspect they will contend once again this year.

The favorite for the individual title for the girls will be defending champion Julie Nacouzi of Montgomery.  She recorded the fastest time in all divisions running 17:02 and defeated eventual state champion, Jacque Taylor by a convincing margin on the Hayward HS course.  If she runs anywhere close to last year's form, the race will be for second place and will be between the following runners:  Amber Piersol of Windsor (18:31), Alexandra Tate of Clayton Valley (18:35), Liz Hebel of San Ramon Valley (18:35), Megan Beck and Emily Balcewski of Carondelet (19:09 and 19:10).

Division II Boys (Top 3 teams advance to state)

1)  San Ramon Valley-Parker Deuel leads the way here.

2)  Santa Rosa-How well will they run without Reesey?

3)  Casa Grande-4th here last year, 3rd this year?

4)  Mt. Eden-Everybody back and ready to break into top 3.

5)  Montgomery-Jamie Goldfield strong #1 for team always in the hunt.

On the bubble:  Alameda, Washington

Top 5 returning individuals, (place) and 2009 NCS meet time:

David Brody (6) American 15:57

Jamie Goldfield (11) Montgomery 16:11

Marvin Nugal (15) Mt. Eden 16:23

Eric Morford (16) Heritage 16:27

Austin Minnick (17) Casa Grande 16:33

From Division I-Parker Deuel (5) San Ramon Valley 15:43

Division II Girls (Top 3 teams advance to state)

1)  San Ramon Valley-Strong team ready to challenge for team crown.

2) Carondelet-Consistent top program in this division.

3) Montgomery-It doesn't hurt to start the team score with 1.

4) Santa Rosa-Can they break into top 3 and reserve their ticket to Fresno?

5) Casa Grande-Can they rebound from losing strong senior class?

On the bubble: Alameda, Washington, Mission San Jose

Top 5 returning individuals, (place) and 2009 NCS meet time:

Julie Nacouzi (1) Montgomery 17:02

Amber Piersol (5) Windsor 18:31

Alexandra Tate (6) Clayton Valley 18:35

Megan Beck (9) Carondelet 19:09

Emily Balcewski (10) Carondelet 19:10

From Division I-Liz Hebel (6) San Ramon Valley 18:35

Feel free to comment on the above rankings.  This division has a lot of teams rebuilding with the departure of some very good runners. Did I miss anybody? Any surprises? Freshmen studs and studettes?

Also, if you have a link to pictures of any of the above runners, please send them to albertjcaruana@gmail.com.  If your team website has been updated or you have a new link, send it my way as well and I will update the link.

2010 NCS Division IV Pre-Season Rankings...

As always, last but definitely not least, my last pre-season predictions will cover Division IV.  The collection of teams in this division remains very similar to last year except for one notable exception on the boys side.  The San Francisco University boys will be taking their act to Division IV this year due to a new NCS by-law that frowns upon dynasties (i.e you win 3 section titles in a row and up you go to the next division).  University won 11 of the last 13 (last 3 in a row) NCS titles in Division V.  According to the former dyestatcal website, UHS would have been the pre-season #1 team in the state in Div. V.

When it comes to the king of the hill in this division, St. Mary's College has been the team to beat the past four years.  They won NCS in 2006, 2007, 2009 and in 2008, they lost to Tamalpais by a point (68 to 69).  This season, their road to another NCS title will be a little more difficult as they graduate their top 3 runners from last year which includes Dan Maxwell who finished 2nd in NCS and 3rd at the state meet.  They do return runners 4-7 (Nate Hill, Stevie Greene, Duncan Calvert and Matt Dull) so before people start to disregard St. Mary's completely, history proves otherwise.

At this point, it looks like a three horse race.  2nd place finisher last year San Rafael, 3rd place finisher Tamalpais and University all return strong teams and I believe one of those teams will win the Division IV crown this season.  If you just look at the team times from last year, does it get any closer than this?
San Rafael 1:23:44
Tamalpais 1:23:44
University 1:23:51
San Rafael returns their top 4 runners from last year's NCS MOC race (Trevor Ehlenbach 1:57.20, 4:30.62 and 10:13.95, Cameron Bronstein, Jack Killion-10:26.35 and Wes Curtis).  Their 7th man at the same meet, Dylan Harris ran 4:26.46 and 9:51.83 this past track season.

Tamalpais returns everybody from last year's team which includes the best runner at the Division IV level in the state of California, Daniel Milechman.  He won NCS last year running 15:07.  He then won the Div. IV state title the following week running 15:37.  He focused on the 1600 during track and ran 4:18.40 and qualified for the state meet for the 2nd year in a row in the event.  Runners 2-5 (David Fuchs, Ned Byrnes, James MacDonald and Alex Olson) will need to close the gap a bit with their front running teammate if they are to have any shot at the title.

Despite competing at the Division IV level for the first time since the inception of the Division V in 1996, University is well armed to do well here.  Following the graduation of most of their section championship team in 2008, UHS won last year's NCS title with junior Ned Tannenbaum and four freshmen.  Without the benefit of research, you would think that is the first time in NCS history that a boys team won a xc section title with 4 freshmen in their top 5.  Here is the list with the top freshmen at the NCS meet last year.  Tannenbaum had a great '09 cross country season, finishing 3rd at NCS and 12th at the state meet.  He just missed qualifying for the state meet in track with his 5th place finish in the 1600 running 4:23.10.

Most of the individual contenders on the boys side have already been mentioned.  The hands down favorite will be the defending champion, Milechman of Tamalpais.  His credentials speak for themselves.  The battle will be for 2nd place and contenders will be Ehlenbach of San Rafael, Tannenbaum of University, Bronstein of San Rafael, Tyler Coley of McKinleyville and Connor Clark of University.  Daniel Maxwell of St. Mary's gave Milechman a pretty good run over the past two seasons but we'll have to see what the margin of victory will be this year.  One runner to watch out for is sophomore John Lawson of Drake.  He finished in 15th place last year as a frosh and just recently finished 9th overall in 100th annual Dipsea race.

The girls' defending team champion, Dougherty Valley, moves up to Division III this year leaving the favorite's mantle to Sir Francis Drake.  The 2nd place finishers last year, Drake returns their top 5 their veteran coach Bill Taylor who has coached many talented runners.  Their front runner for the 3rd straight year should be junior, Ellie Ryan.  Drake's main competition should come from fellow MCAL team, Tamalpais.  They finished in 5th place last year but do return 6 out of their top 7 as well as some newcomers this season.

The rest of the teams will include some of the usual suspects in this division.  Moreau Catholic should rebound from their 7th place finish last year returning one of the best runners in this division, Anika Adeni.  Piedmont was 4th here last year but will have one of their main guns back to lead the way in junior Nicole Peterson.  It's hard to count St. Mary's out considering their recent success (2006-3rd, 2007-1st, 2008-1st and 2009-3rd) but they will have to replace their top 5 runners from last year.

One of the state best runners, Theresa Devine of Marin Catholic will now be taking her running talents to Princeton University next year.  She won the last two section titles in this division as well as a 5th place state meet finish in 2008 and a 2nd place finish last year.  The favorites for the individual title this year will be Adeni of Moreau who finished in 3rd place last year in 19:13, Nicole Lane of El Molino-19:24 in 4th place, Peterson of Piedmont-19:34 for 6th place and Ryan of Drake-19:35 in 7th place.

Division IV Boys (Top 4 Advance to state) GAINS ONE MORE TEAM from 2009
1) San Franciso University-Yes, they are this good.
2) San Rafael-'06-5th, '07-3rd, '08-3rd, '09-2nd, '10-?
3) Tamalpais-Everybody is back for this team.

4) St. Mary's Berkeley-Could break into top 3.
5) Sir Francis Drake-Bill Taylor's 28th year at the helm of the boys.

On the bubble: Moreau Catholic, Piedmont

Top 5 returning individuals, (place) and 2009 NCS meet time:

Dan Milechman (1) Tamalpais 15:07

Trevor Ehlenbach (5) San Rafael 15:55
Cameron Bronstein (7) San Rafael 16:11
Tyler Coley (9) McKinleyville 16:29
Alexi Taylor (10 Cardinal Newman 16:35
From Division V
Ned Tannenbaum (3) University 16:04
Connor Clark (7) University 16:24

Division IV Girls (Top 3 Advance to state)
1) Sir Francis Drake-Looking to improve it's 2nd place finish from last year.
2) Tamalpais-Will get many opportunities to race Drake.
3) Moreau Catholic-Might have best runner in this division (Adeni).
4) St. Mary's Berkeley-Will need some freshman help to make state meet.

5) Piedmont-6 out of 7 are back after 2nd place finish last year.

One the bubble: Arcata, Terra Linda

Top 5 returning individuals, (place) and 2009 NCS meet time:

Anika Adeni (3) Moreau Catholic 18:55
Nicole Lane (4) El Molino 19:24
Nicole Peterson (6) Piedmont 19:34
Ellie Ryan (7) Drake 19:35
Jenna Joske (9) 19:39

Let me know your thoughts. Did I miss anybody? Who is looking good this summer? Any freshmen that will have an impact in this division? Norcal rankings will be up next.

2010 NCS Division V Pre-Season Rankings

The most competitive division at the state level for NCS takes a couple of hits on the boys' side and gains a state meet berth on the girls' side.  With the controversial passing of the following policy, the University boys (11 time champions) will now compete in Division IV this coming season (possibly beyond 2010 as well if they keep winning).

Any school who participates in the NCS Championship contest, finishing first in the respective classification or division, for three years in succession will automatically be moved to the next higher classification or division the following school year of competition.  The school may return to the actual classification or division of enrollment after at least one year of competition at the higher classification or division once the school does not participate in the NCS Championship contest, finishing first.

Now, the section that had 4 teams in the top 10 at the state meet in 2007/2008 and 2 in the top 10 in 2009 will be hard pressed to place one team into the top 10 this coming season.  As stated above, UHS will now reside in Division IV and Redwood Christian (the other top 10 team) is decimated by graduation.  In the history of Division V, which dates back to 1996, only four teams have won a team championship (University-11, College Prep-1, St. Joseph-1 and St. Mary's-1).  It now appears a fifth team will join that list.

The question now is who will it be?  At this point of the year, it appears that the Urban School of SF has the best chance to claim their first section title.  They return the best runner in this division, Cole Williams, who emerged during the Track and Field season by qualifying for the state meet in the 800m. running 1:54.01.  His teammates, fellow senior Sean Judkins-Boeri, finished in 9th place with a solid 16:28 time at Hayward HS and 3rd man Alex Wu (17:18 also at Hayward) gives them a solid top 3.

Chasing Urban will be another San Francisco school, last year's 3rd place finishers, Stuart Hall.  They return 5 out of their top 7 from last year's team that qualified to the state meet (first time in the 10th year existence of their school).  St. Joseph's of Alameda has bounced back and forth between IV and V in the past few years but when they have been in this division, they have been competitive and usually qualified for the state meet.  The rest of the challengers will be the usual array of BCL teams which includes College Prep, Lick Wilmerding and Marin Academy.

The battle for the individual title starts and ends with Williams of Urban.  Along with his track and field accolades, Cole finished in 2nd place last year at the NCS MOC cross country meet.  His chief rival, Ned Tannenbuam of UHS, who finished 3rd and 7 seconds behind Cole will be racing in Division IV.  That leaves his teammate Judkins-Boeri and Ben Liu of Stuart Hall as his closest pursuers and it's not close at this point.

Unlike the boys, the girls' race at NCS will field some of the heavy hitters at the state level.  Last year's NCS final was an epic battle between the University and College Prep girls that resulted in a 43 to 44 UHS victory.  UHS went on to record their 7th state title with CPS also claiming a podium spot by finishing in 3rd place.  This year's race should yield another great race between the two teams and it's really difficult to pick a winner.  University has the best 1-2 punch in state with Jennie Callan and Holland Reynolds.  College Prep has their own dynamic duo with Kai Wilson and Adrienne Strait.  Both teams will need to find a replacement for their consistent 3rd runners (Margaret Wehner for UHS and Emily Erickson for CPS).

The next two teams in line will be BCL West competitors Marin Academy and Lick Wilmerding.  Marin outdistanced Lick at NCS but Lick reversed that order at the state meet with a 5th place finish to Marin's 7th place.  Marin has the defending section and state champion in Lucy McCullough with Lick returning a strong trio of juniors (Rachel Prensky-Pomeranz, Lucia Calthorpe and Sara Peletz).  Missing the state meet by one spot was Sonoma Academy last year but with NCS getting 5 teams to state this year, the young Sonoma team could make their first trip to the state meet under the tutelage of former Maria Carrillo coach Dan Aldridge.

The individual race should be just as competitive as the team race.  Although McCullough is the 3 time defending section champion, Callan seems to have closed the gap with a spectacular freshman season around the oval running 5:02.50 at the NCS MOC 1600 final.  Her teammate Holland Reynolds finished 2nd at NCS last year and recorded one of the fastest times on the Crystal Springs course last year with an 18:11.5 clocking.  CPS teammates Strait and Wilson are also in the mix as is last year's 5th place finisher, Kate Courtney of Branson.

2009 NCS Meet of Champions (XC) Division V Results Girls

2009 NCS Meet of Champions (XC) Division V Results Boys

Division V Boys (Top 5 Advance to state)
1) Urban-Could this be their first section title?
2) Stuart Hall-Ben Liu leads the way here.
3) St. Joseph Notre Dame-Secured last state meet berth last year.  Higher up this year.
4) College Prep-A consistent contender in this division.
5) Lick Wilmerding-Will need to show improvement to hold this spot.
On the bubble:  Marin Academy, Redwood Christian

Top 5 returning individuals, (place) and 2009 NCS meet time:
Cole Williams (2) Urban 15:57
Sean Judkins-Boeri (9) Urban 16:28
Ben Liu (11) Stuart Hall 16:33
Benjamin Rainero-de Haan (18) International HS 16:58
Jacob Huemoeller (19) Redwood Christian 17:04

Division V Girls (Top 5 Advance to state)

1) University-In position to reclaim the NCS crown.
2) College Prep-Can they put five together to challenge top two
3) Lick Wilmerding-Good group returns from last year.

4) Marin Academy-Defending NCS champions.

5) Sonoma Academy-First state meet team appearance on the horizon?

On the bubble: Urban, Santa Rosa Christian

Top 5 returning individuals, (place) and 2009 NCS meet time:

Lucy McCullough (1) Marin Academy 17:47

Holland Reynolds (2) University 18:06
Jennie Callan (3) University 18:07
Adrienne Strait (4) College Prep 18:36
Kate Courtney (5) Branson 18:43

Please feel free to chime in on the rankings above. I won't be offended if you strongly disagree as the above rankings are meant to be a launching pad for conversation. Fortunately section titles and state meet berths are decided by the runners themselves. Did I miss any teams or individuals? Any other impact freshmen that we should know about?

2010 North Coast Section Cross --CC-> Country rankings Division III by Peter Brewer

Boys

    Defending NCS champion Petaluma appears to be holding all the cards again this year.  The Trojans return 5 of their 7, led by senior Forrest Schaeffer who was 4th last year.  Schaeffer added a 9:38.09 3200 to his credentials during the track season.  Las Lomas brings back 4 of 7 from their 3rd place squad last year.  Their frontrunner is senior Carl Gracely.  Campolindo also returns 4 from last year’s runner-up team.  Senior Dylan Laucher was 8th at MOC last year, and ran a 4:26.4 1600 and 9:39.97 3200.  Piner moves inot the picture, bringing back 4 sophomores(now juniors) from last year’s team, including ace Luis Luna who was 2nd here last year.and 11th at the State Meet. Luis went on to run 9:16.19 for the 3200.  Acalanes has a strong group returning as well, with junior Tyler Sorenson at the front.
    Individually, Luna (Piner) is at the head of the class.  Schaeffer (Petaluma) and Laucher (Campolindo) are also top candidates.  Eureka has the intriguing pair of Nick Kraus and Robin O’Connell who ran 9th and 10th last year.

1.    Petaluma        the purple-clad harriers are favored again.
2.    Las Lomas     can the Knights challenge for the top?
3.    Campolindo    the Cougars are right in the mix.
4.    Piner               just how far can Luna take this young group?
5.    Acalanes        solid pack.
Lurking: 
    Eureka              with a quick 1-2 punch, anything can happen.
    Miramonte       the Matadors are never really out of it.

Girls

    Campolindo is the clear favorite here.  Not only do they return 6 of 7 from last year, they had a heck of a track season last year.  Junior Carrie Verdon scorched to a 4:56.77/10:42.87 double last year, Grace Orders ran 5:05.58 and 10:44.89, and Sarah Orders, Sara Mostatabi and Brooke Martini added 11:27.53, 11:31.68 and 11:37.48 respectively.  Acalanes is strong as well, with 6 of 7 returning as well.  Sophomore Kellie Berg is the returning frontrunner, while sister Katie ran 2:15.80 in the 800 in the spring.  Bishop O’Dowd also comes back with just about everyone, with junior Maria Diaz and senior Kaitlyn Spees sharing the top honors.  Defending champion Maria Carillo is 2nd only to Campolindo in top returnees, led by sophomore Lauren Kraus who ran 5:12.08 and 11:17.42 in track.  The Pumas drop off a bit after the first three.  Petaluma is poised to make a return trip to the State Meet with a flock of returning sophomores, led by Francsca Honey.   Dougherty Valley is the defending D-IV champion and brings back 1-6, but the air is a bit more rarified in D-III.  Victoria De Metz in their top runner.  Miramonte returns 5 veterans, and is just a step off the ranking consideration.
    Top 10 finishers and State Meet advancers from last year include Verdon and Orders of Campolindo, senior Shelby Nickles of Dublin, Kraus and Heidi Thiele of Maria Carillo, Kellie Berg of Acalanes senior, Courtney Madson of Novato, and Diaz of Bishop O’Dowd. 

1.    Campolindo         the powerhouse.
2.    Acalanes             can the Dons close the gap on Campolindo?
3.    Bishop O’Dowd  the Dragons are solid.
4.    Maria Carillo     can the Pumas shore up the back end?
5.    Petaluma             a good 1-2; can 3-4-5 close the gap?
Lurking:    
    Miramonte             lots of strong veterans.
    Dougherty Valley  can they make the jump to D-III?


Feel free to chime in on this division in the comments section below.

2010 NCS Division I Pre-Season Rankings by Jason Oswalt...

Hot off the presses!  The long awaited NCS Division I pre-season rankings by Jason Oswalt are now here.

You can find his data and predications at the following link:
http://www.eteamz.com/csuxc/handouts/#1834325

Feel free to comment on the above predications.  Any other teams deserve to be added?  What runners are going to be the biggest surprises?  Who are the impact freshmen?  Who is the best coach in this division?

Thanks again to Jason for his work on these predictions.

North Coast Section (NCS) Divisions for 2010...

http://cifncs.org/sports/cross_country/files/10CCdiv9-12.pdf

Some of the more notable changes:
College Park moves up to Division I
San Ramon Valley moves down to Division II
Dougherty Valley moves up to Division III
San Francisco University boys move up to Division IV

Any other movements that may effect any of the divions?  


The first group of pre-season NCS rankings will be posted sometime next week.  If you would like to contribute to the pre-season rankings or would like to post your own set of rankings, let me know.  My email address is albertjcaruana@gmail.com.

More NCS distance data courtesy of Peter Brewer...

Peter Brewer did the work of finding the following data. The sources are noted below.
==============================================================
Digging a little deeper into the data, here are the top prospects for doing well in the distance races in NCS this year. The track lists are courtesy of EPI Sports database, and the cross country lists are courtesy of Cross Country Express.

NCS Distance Boys

2009 Top returning 800 runners (under 2:00)
1 1:53.85 Kevin Griffith 11 San Ramon Vlly NC CIF State Prelims 06/05/09
2 1:55.77 Nick Vedovi 11 Miramonte NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
3 1:56.5 John Weber 11 Piedmont NC Weekly Duals, 3/22/09 03/22/09
4 1:57.00 Danny Thomas 11 Arroyo NC HAAL League Prelims 05/13/09
5 1:57.32 Tj Rice 11 Fortuna NC Redwood Empire Area Finals 05/23/09
6 1:57.5 Erik Olson 11 Novato NC Weekly Duals, 3/1/09 03/01/09
7 1:57.81 Elliott Killick 11 Monte Vista NC NCS Championship/ Meet o... 05/29/09
8 1:57.98 Anthony Martore 10 Castro Valley NC HAAL Finals 05/16/09
9 1:58.30 Toshi Kellogg 11 Acalanes NC NCS Tri Valley Area Cham... 05/23/09
10 1:58.73 Ryan Hammill 11 San Ramon Vlly NC EBAL Championship 05/13/09
11 1:59.03 Andrew Zellman 11 Ukiah NC Weekly Duals, 5/10/09 05/10/09
12 1:59.19 Anthony Ortolan 10 College Park NC NCS Tri Valley Area Cham... 05/23/09
13 1:59.51 John Butler 11 Concord NC Diablo Valley League Fin... 05/13/09
14 1:59.90 Brett Cantrell 11 Acalanes NC NCS Tri Valley Area Cham... 05/23/09

2009 Top returning 1600 runners (under 4:25.0)
1 4:09.60 ErikOlson 11 Novato NC MCAL Finals 05/14/09
2 4:11.22 Danny Thomas 11 Arroyo NC CIF State Prelims 06/05/09
4 4:19.23 Sean Colaco 11 San Ramon Vlly NC Dan Gabor Distance Sprin... 03/13/09
5 4:19.52 Dan Milechman 10 Tamalpais NC CIF State Prelims 06/05/09
6 4:20.45 Ben Eversole 10 Castro Valley NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
7 4:21.65 Andrew Zellman 11 Ukiah NC West Valley/Chico Invita... 04/24/09
8 4:21.77 Reesey Byers 11 Santa Rosa NC Woody Wilson Classic 04/17/09
9 4:22.48 Simon Graves 11 San Ramon Vlly NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
10 4:23.06 Norman Weekes 11 Castro Valley NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
11 4:24.60c John Webber 11 Piedmont NC Stanford Invitational 03/27/09
12 4:24.65 Josh Macdonald 11 Redwood Chr NC Chabot Distance Festival... 03/27/09

2009 Top returning 3200 runners (under 9:45.0)
1 8:55.06 Erik Olson 11 Novato NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
2 9:06.93 Reesey Byers 11 SantalRosa NC CIF State Finals 06/06/09
3 9:27.13 Dan Maxwell 11 St. Mary's NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
4 9:28.28 Alex Summers 11 Granada NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
5 9:29.28 Chris Gioia 11 Albany NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
6 9:29.93 Danny Thomas 11 Arroyo NC NCS Bayshore 05/23/09
7 9:32.18 Ben Eversole 10 Castro Valley NC Sacramento Meet of Champ... 05/02/09
8 9:33.96 Ben Rich 11 Washington NC Sacramento Meet of Champ... 05/02/09
9 9:35.30 Paul Johnson 11 DeLaSalle NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
10 9:35.39 Dan Milechman 10 Tamalpais NC Viking Classic 04/25/09
11 9:37.55 Josh Macdonald 11 Redwood Chr NC Chabot Distance Festival... 03/27/09
12 9:40.39 Hugh Dowdy 11 Petaluma NC Redwood Empire Area Finals 05/23/09
13 9:44.21 Luis Luna 9 Piner NC Redwood Empire Area Finals 05/23/09

top cross country runners at NCS finals, Hayward High (under 15:45)
1 14:49 Erik Olson 12 Novato
2 15:07 Daniel Milechman 11 Tamalpais
3 15:08 Luis Luna 10 Piner
4 15:09 Reesey Byers 12 Santa Rosa
5 15:15 Andrew Zellman 12 Ukiah
6 15:17 Dan Maxwell 12 St. Mary's
7 15:23 Jeff Bickert 11 College Park
8 15:29 Josh MacDonald 12 Redwood Christian
9 15:30 Ben Eversole 11 Castro Valley
10 15:33 Charles Perkins 12 Alameda
11 15:34 Hugh Dowdy 12 Petaluma
12 15:35 Anthony Martore 11 Castro Valley
13 15:35 Forrest Shaffer 11 Petaluma
14 15:38 Jesse Aston 12 Alhambra
15 15:40 Kevin Griffith 12 San Ramon Valley
16 15:41 Paul Johnson 12 De La Salle
17 15:43 Brian King 12 Cardinal Newman
18 15:43 Parker Deuel 10 San Ramon Valley
19 15:43 Will Melton 12 Northgate
20 15:44 Simon Graves 12 San Ramon Valley
21 15:45 Zachary Perkins 12 Alameda
22 15:45 Peter Buscheck 12 Miramonte
23 15:45 Dylan Laucher 11 Campolindo

Top cross country runners at State Meet (under 16:00)
1 15:00 Erik Olson SR Novato
2 15:22 Reesey Byers SR Santa Rosa
3 15:28 Hugh Dowdy SR Petaluma
4 15:33 Jeff Bickert JR College Park
5 15:36 Daniel Milechman JR Tamalpais
6 15:37 Luis Luna SO Piner
7 15:39 Andrew Zellman SR Ukiah
8 15:42 Charles Perkins SR Alameda
9 15:46 Dan Maxwell SR St. Mary's
10 15:49 Ben Eversole JR Castro Valley
11 15:50 Josh MacDonald SR Redwood Christian
12 15:50 Forrest Shaffer JR Petaluma
13 15:53 Paul Johnson SR De La Salle
14 15:55 Brian King SR Cardinal Newman
15 15:56 Will Melton SR Northgate

NCS Distance Girls

2009 Top returning 800 runners (under 2:20.0)
1 2:11.45 Thandi Stewart 11 Logan James NC Arcadia Invitational 04/10/09
2 2:15.93 Mikaela Hammitt 9 Monte Vista NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
3 2:16.96 Chelsea Schneider 11 Castro Valley NC Sacramento Meet of Champ... 05/02/09
4 2:17.07 Katie Berge 10 Acalanes NC NCS Championship/ Meet o... 05/29/09
5 2:17.58 Olivia Warren 11 Campolindo NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
6 2:18.77 Lucy;Mccullough 10 Marin Academy NC BAC Championships 05/16/09
7 2:18.87 Gabe Stange 10 Logan James NC NCS Bayshore 05/23/09
8 2:19.15 Emily Shearer 11 Acalanes NC NCS Tri Valley Area Cham... 05/23/09
9 2:19.35 Chizoba Okodogbe 11 Deer Valley NC NCS Tri Valley Area Cham... 05/23/09
10 2:19.5 Jacque Taylor 11 Casa Grande NC Weekly Duals, 3/8/09 03/08/09

2009 Top returning 1600 runners (under 5:10.0)
1 4:50.56 Jacque Taylor 11 Casa Grande NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
2 4:54.82 Lucy Mccullough 10 Marin Academy NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
3 4:56.29 Isabel Andrade 11 Petaluma NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
4 4:59.10 EmilylShearer 11 Acalanes NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
5 4:59.46 Colleen Lillig 11 California NC Sacramento Meet of Champ... 05/02/09
6 5:02.39 Kelsey Santisteban 10 Castro Valley NC HAAL Finals 05/16/09
7 5:03.83 AlyciaiCridebring 11 College Park NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
8 5:06.74 Heather Cerney 11 Carondelet NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
9 5:08.55 Theresa Devine 11 Marin Catholic NC Sacramento Meet of Champ... 05/02/09
10 5:09.25 Natalie Dimits 9 Livermore NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
11 5:09.57 Carrie Verdon 9 Campolindo NC NCS Tri Valley Area Cham... 05/23/09

2009 Top returning 3200 runners (under 11:20.0)
1 10:42.04 Jacque Taylor 11 Casa Grande NC CIF State Finals 06/06/09
2 10:43.54 Colleen Lillig 11 California NC CIF State Finals 06/06/09
3 10:51.59 Theresa Devine 11 Marin Catholic NC CIF State Finals 06/06/09
4 10:57.27 Kelsey Santisteban 10 Castro Valley NC Arcadia Invitational 04/10/09
5 11:01.85 Carrie Verdon 9 Campolindo NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
6 11:04.06 Grace Orders 10 Campolindo NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
7 11:06.47 Isabel Andrade 11 Petaluma NC Redwood Empire Area Finals 05/23/09
8 11:06.51 Elaine Mcvay 10 California NC NCS Meet of Champions 05/29/09
9 11:10.74 Julie Nacouzi 10 Montgomery NC Redwood Empire Area Finals 05/23/09
10 11:12.04 Nicole Aha 11 Monte Vista NC Sacramento Meet of Champ... 05/02/09
11 11:15.12 Suzi Rozga 11 Santa Rosa NC Woody Wilson Classic 04/17/09
12 11:18.86 Elise Wummer 11 Castro Valley NC Dublin Distance Fiesta 03/21/09
13 11:19.86 Natalie Dimits 9 Livermore NC West Coast Relays 04/04/09

top cross country runners at NCS finals, Hayward High (under 18:30)
1 17:02 Julie Nacouzi 11 Montgomery
2 17:18 Jacque Taylor 12 Casa Grande
3 17:30 Colleen Lillig 12 California
4 17:47 Lucy McCullough 11 Marin Academy
5 17:54 Alycia Cridebring 12 College Park
6 18:06 Isabel Andrade 12 Petaluma
7 18:06 Holland Reynolds 10 University
8 18:07 Jennie Callan 9 University
9 18:17 Lauren Curtin 12 Maria Carrillo
10 18:17 Heather Cerney 12 Carondelet
11 18:19 Kelsey Santisteban 11 Castro Valley
12 18:19 Carrie Verdon 10 Campolindo
13 18:23 Elaine McVay 11 California
14 18:25 Natalie Dimits 10 Livermore
15 18:26 Grace Orders 11 Campolindo

Top cross country runners at State Meet (under 19:00)
1 17:29 Jacque Taylor SR Casa Grande
2 17:29 Julie Nacouzi JR Montgomery
3 18:06 Theresa Devine SR Marin Catholic
4 18:11 Colleen Lillig SR California
5 18:12 Heather Cerney SR Carondelet
6 18:17 Lucy McCullough JR Marin Academy
7 18:19 Carrie Verdon SO Campolindo
8 18:23 Elise Wummer SR Castro Valley
9 18:24 Jennie Callan FR University
10 18:25 Elaine McVay JR California
11 18:28 Alycia Cridebring SR College Park
12 18:30 Natalie Dimits SO Livermore
13 18:31 Kelsey Santisteban JR Castro Valley
14 18:37 Isabel Andrade SR Petaluma
15 18:39 Grace Orders JR Campolindo
16 18:41 Alexandra Tate SO Clayton Valley
17 18:42 Holland Reynolds SO University
18 18:55 Sara Mostatabi JR Campolindo
19 18:57 Nicole Aha SR Monte Vista
20 18:57 Liz Hebel SO San Ramon Vall