Live results: http://www.rtspt.com/events/cif/xc2018/
Who are the leading contenders to finish on the podium at state (top 3 teams/top 10 individuals in any division)? Liam Anderson will be favored to win the Division 3 race but he will have a very tough foe in Kevin Ramos. Who are other NorCal athletes that will challenge for individual titles? What about teams?
Let's hear your bold predictions below.
Who are the leading contenders to finish on the podium at state (top 3 teams/top 10 individuals in any division)? Liam Anderson will be favored to win the Division 3 race but he will have a very tough foe in Kevin Ramos. Who are other NorCal athletes that will challenge for individual titles? What about teams?
Let's hear your bold predictions below.
Some DII Predictions: Liam Anderson will win but Preston Norris will keep it close. Norris appeared to run conservatively at NCS and appears primed to run his best race this Saturday.
ReplyDeleteCampo boys to win. AT NCS, all five scorers finished under 15:50. Two were under 15:30. These guys could easily run a sub 16 average on Saturday.
Andre Williams Sonoma Academy looks good for D5, he’s top returner and has run fast this year
ReplyDeleteAgree with all the above. Liam will be a strong favorite and Andre Williams will be favored as well in Division V. The Campo boys were very impressive and will have a very good shot to get on the podium and maybe more.
ReplyDeleteI thought Liam and Preston are D3. Don’t sleep on Colton either. NCS is going to put a few guys in the top 10 this year.
ReplyDeleteYes, Division 3 for Liam, Preston and Campo boys.
ReplyDeleteNow that SF is healthy and running up to their potential, I would look for them to be on the podium and to put 2 guys in the top 10 in the D2 race.
ReplyDeleteFrom the SJS, people are sleeping on Garett Gough from Nevada Union, probably the most under the radar elite runner in the state. Anderson is rightfully the favorite to win, but I think when all is said and done, would not be surprised to see Gough earn a NXN berth. He's coming off of injury and hasn't been pushed in his races back, but Matt Strangio in D1 and super frosh Riley Chamberlain in D3. I could see Jesuit, Dublin, St. Francis (MV) podium if things fall their way and the same for the St. Francis (Sacramento) girls.
ReplyDeleteI agree about SF girls in SJS. SF canceled school due to smoke for an entire week, they took the team to Tahoe for altitude training while public schools had to stay in the smoke. They should do well with luck like that.
DeleteQuite the performance from both Henry Saul and Kaimei Gescuk. Does anyone know if Carlmont is graduating any girls this season?
ReplyDeleteBell keeps closing the gap on Saint Francis. I expect to see them regain the WCAL title next season.
ReplyDeleteWell some pretty good results for SJS on the individual basis:
ReplyDeleteStrangio - Jesuit #1 D1
Chamberlain - Del Oro #1 D3
Gough - Nevada Union #4 D3
Fauria - St Francis #10 D2
But the team results for SJS seemed a little sub-par across the board,
other than Vista Del Lago D3 winning the whole enchilada, Jesuit #5 D1, and Davis #5 D1.
I had hoped to see St Francis Girls (D2) put up a better result, as their 3-5 looked pretty tired. But their 1-2 had awesome races, so next year is something to look forward to.
I wouldn't be surprised if SJS lost some state spots next year, as it only had possibly 5 top-ten results across all divisions, at a quick glance.
Shout out to Amber Jackson of Forest Lake Christian running 18:27, finishing 3rd in Girls D5. This was 2nd fastest girls individual qualifier for SJS in any division.
ReplyDeleteCongrats to Campo once again peaking at the right time and making the podium, Boys and Girls.
ReplyDelete@3:08 no doubt Bell is young and hungry. Unfortunately, 3 of Saint Francis’s scorers went down at the start just before the road. I guess it was past the 100 yard call-back but it definitely had an impact on their placement.
ReplyDeleteGreat job Granada girls!
ReplyDeleteCCS vs CCS at State.
ReplyDeletehttp://lynbrooksports.prepcaltrack.com/ATHLETICS/XC/2018/stateccs.txt
hank
Glad to see Bell back on top of the CCS. Will anyone be doing a similar comparison nor NorCal teams and NCS teams?
ReplyDeleteCCS grls missing the 3-4-5-7 teams from the power merge that didn’t advance. Crazy that our best teams stayed home.
ReplyDeleteCongrats to Brllarmine for a solid defeat of St. Francis in the merge.
The merge is missing the #4 runner for St. Francis (Maddison). With him, I think the Lancers come out on top.
ReplyDelete@7:25 AM: You are correct. If Maddison is added in, St. Francis prevails 39-43. St. Francis' team time is #3 all time CCS at the State Meet; Bellarmine's time from this year is tied 5th all time CCS; both St. F and BCP ran their school's 2nd all time team time in State Meet history. Congrats to Los Altos, who ran the 33rd fastest team time in CCS state meet history, Palo Alto, who tied for the 68th fastest team time in CCS history, and King City, whose team time is now 73rd fastest ever in CCS state meet history. A reminder that I only keep records for the boys teams...anybody who wanted to could do the same for girls, because all the records are on Hank's site!! Takes some time, though...congrats all CCS runners, especially Henry Saul (tied 8th fastest CCS individual time in state meet history), Kaimei Gescuk for her sub-18 minute effort, and both Castilleja and Nueva for their top 10 finishes in girls' DV!!!!
ReplyDeleteThe CCS teams that finished in the top 10 are as follows:
ReplyDeleteMonta Vista girls 10th in Division I
Bellarmine boys 7th in Division I
St. Francis boys 5th in Division II
King City boys 4th in Division IV
Scotts Valley boys 7th in Division IV
Castilleja girls 6th in Division V
Nueva girls 7th in Division V
Crystal Springs boys 9th in Division V
That's 8 teams that finished in the top 10 of ten separate divisions. By comparison, NCS had 20 schools finish in the top 10. SJS had 7 schools.
I think it won't be long before CCS loses a spot or two in Divisions II and III and possibly in IV unless the divisions are adjusted to match other sections. The teams that make it to state from CCS are typically going against much larger schools at state which results in the low finishes.
I should also point out that NCS had 9 teams make the top 10 in the Division V races. That has always been a division in which that section has done very well at and you can see that with the 5 and 6 auto-qualifying teams for boys and girls respectively.
ReplyDeleteAnd to your point Albert, SJS should lose even more spots, since the number of teams that made the top 10 this year, was less than previous years.
ReplyDeleteEventually, I could see SJS not qualifying more than 2 in all 5 divisions, unless they open up the number of spots at state.
We will see what changes take place after this year's meet when the number for auto qualifiers are updated for next year.
ReplyDelete@ 12:25 PM
ReplyDeleteCarlmont girls are all So and Jrs...
I am curious if people on here are familiar with how much the Division sizes vary from section to section? D5 is the most consistent division across the state where almost all have them at 600 enrollment or less. The SJS divides them so there is an equal number of teams at the section level. The problem arises when a team that is Division 1 in SJS has an enrollment that would barely keep them in D2 in the Southern Section. It is what it is, but I think it would be incredibly unfair to those kids who would miss out on any opportunity of going to state because they don't as well as schools 50%+ greater enrollment.
ReplyDeleteEnrollment numbers for some of the SS D1 Schools:
Great Oak: 3,249
Long Beach Poly: 4,142
Dublin (NCS): 2,832
Bellarmine (CCS): 3,300
Jesuit (SJS): 2,168
A couple of years back, Great Oak Coach Doug Soles was asked how to build a perennial XC power? The first thing he said was, "Find a job at a school with as big an enrollment as you can find." You still need to get the athletes out and coach them, but there is a reason that outside some year to year anomalies, the fastest team times are from D1 and descend down to D5. A few teams punch above their weight, but that is the exception, not the norm. To be clear, I think everyone, regardless of which section they came out of should rightfully be proud to have qualified for state and even more so if they did something special there.
Doing a quick check, here are some numbers for this year showing the smallest size school in each Division by section. Needs to be double checked:
ReplyDeleteDiv I
NCS: 2700 (8 schools)
CCS: 2035 (24 schools)
SJS: 2124 (25 schools)
San Diego 2323 (21 Schools)
Northern: none
Southern: 2491 (84 schools)
CS: McFarland assigned via "competitive equity" approach @ 929 (11 schools) other schools more than 2000
Div II
NCS: 1918 (23 schools)
CCS: 1616 (24 Schools)
SJS: 1814 (31 schools)
San Diego 1885 (19 schools)
Northern: none
Southern: 2091 (85 schools)
CS: Assigned via "competitive equity" approach range from 1325 to 2600 (17 schools)
Div III
NCS: 1350 (29 schools)
CCS: 1141 (24 schools)
SJS: 1285 (31 Schools)
San Diego 1505 (20 schools)
Northern: 1250 (5 schools)
Southern: 1530 (92 Schools)
CS: Assigned via "competitive equity" approach. wide range of enrollments (29 schools)
Div IV
NCS: 601 (28 schools)
CCS: 542 (23 schools)
SJS: 601 (38 schools)
San Diego 609 (19 schools)
Southern: 601 (95 schools)
Northern: 500 (16 schools)
CS: (500-1250) (27 schools) Assigned by "competitive equity, so schools may be pulled up to higher division (See DI..McFarland)
Div V
NCS: 600 or less (66 teams)
CCS: 500 or less (27 teams)
SJS: 600 or less (38 teams)
San Diego 600 or less (36 teams)
Southern: 600 or less (208 teams)
Northern: under 499 (24 schools)
CS: under 500 (26 schools)
Thank you for posting those numbers. I know you had to do some research to find all the numbers so very much appreciated.
ReplyDelete@9:29: that's great info, thanks. But if you have it and can paste it easily, what's the median? The smallest in each division gives us an idea but doesn't really tell us how significant the difference is. For example, I know that the median CCS D1 school is about 2,400, and if the median D1 school in the Southern Section is 3,800, that tells us a lot more than knowing that the smallest one is 2,491 vs CCS at 2,035.
ReplyDeleteI know it's not the first time it has been suggested, but it seems much like football and basketball with their "Open Divisions" CIF needs to do something similar with XC. If a school (regardless of their enrollment) felt like they had a shot at NXN during a particular season, they could choose to compete in D1 at the state meet, if not, they could remain in the appropriate division that would be consistent across the state. For individuals, they run the same course, so like it is currently, the fastest times get selected regardless of division. There is a reason the Southern Section has significantly more state titles than other sections and it's not because the other sections are slow. A bigger crime is what has happened to McFarland who have been penalized by their section for years due to their prior success. These days, despite still having a solid program, most of these kids can't even dream of going to state as a D1 school with an enrollment that typically hovers around 800 (which would be D4 in the Southern Section).
ReplyDeleteDan, I agree and have brought up many times in the past that California needs to add an open division in XC so that the best teams/individuals can face each other in the same race. It seems like many other sports already have an open division so this would fall in line with them.
ReplyDeleteAs for McFarland, that is really sad that I once very proud program can no longer truly compete now that they are up against much larger schools.
@November 27, 2018 1:43 PM
ReplyDeleteThe individual data for all the schools in buried in pdfs and the various Sections' websites. You can get an idea of the ranges within Division for each Section with the above data. For the top end of Div I, here's what I was able to see..
Largest Div I
NCS: 3852
CCS: 3300
SJS: 2862
San Diego: 3341
Southern:5187
Northern: N/A
CS: 4156
Would/should California consider something like the New York State model? Division based championships held a week earlier than the existing meet and then a "federated" meet of champions on the current weekend?
ReplyDeleteI think the easiest change would be to add an open division. Theoretically, most of the best teams will be in the open division and then you can divide the rest of the divisions by size.
ReplyDeleteIt's a simple solution and one that is used in HS Cross Country now. Pretty much every big invitational in California has an open or seeded race that seeks to put the best of the best regardless of size (Stanford, Mt. Sac, Woodbridge...). I see absolutely zero downside to creating an open division at the state meet level.
ReplyDeleteMy only issue with an open division is it weakens the other divisions and they are ultimately “JV” races. I mean look at Presentation volleyball. By finishing near last in their league they are placed in D3 for competitive equity and play for a state title. So you’re at the bottom of your league, outside the top 20 in your section and if you win you hang a banner that you are State Champions?
ReplyDeleteIf you took the top 15, 20, 25 teams for the combined results this year and put them in an open race, how watered down would the divisions be? Here's the numbers from the Boys Races:
ReplyDeletetotal from Division
Division I 8, 9, 10
Division II 5, 7, 9
Division III 1, 3, 3
Division IV 1, 1, 3
Division V 0, 0, 0
Almost half the field in D1&D2 ouch. The 11th place team in D1would be “state champs”. I’d rather see an open division and two smaller divisions: 600 & under and 600-1200. Other than that have each section send their top 5 teams. Put all in one race for a true state champ. All individuals run in a separate race.
ReplyDeleteNobody outside of D1 would be forced to run in an Open Division. If you were from a lower division and your team was talented enough to go after a NXN berth, you could choose to compete in the Open Division. For the remaining divisions, (2-5) have standard sizes and slot qualifying teams in to them regardless of where there section classifies them. It's a state championship, no longer a section championship, so not sure why CIF would take on those section biases at the state level.
ReplyDeleteAnd I don't think any team backs in to a state championship. How many football divisions are there? Basketball? It gives more schools and athletes from smaller programs an opportunity to compete at a level comparable to their size.
Yeah forcing D1 & D2 into open but not D3-5? Never going to happen.
ReplyDeleteThe open division can be filled by teams or athletes from any division. I would think that good individuals could come from any division as any school can have one stud runner (or two). As for teams, the top end teams tend to be from the top 3 divisions. The idea is for the top teams and individuals to compete against each other in the same race. Whether NXN is acknowledged or not this allows those teams and individuals to compete fairly for a shot to qualify for that meet.
ReplyDelete@November 29, 2018 12:54 PM
ReplyDeleteIf you look at these by actual enrollments, 3 of the 5 D2 schools in the top 15 all are Southern Section schools with enrollments of 2452, 2422, 2414; the one D3 school in the top 15 is Ridgeview from Central Section with a 2532 enrollment...all would be DI in most other sections. Two of the D2 schools in the top 15 with under 2400 were St. Francis-MV and La Costa Canyon from SDS. Smallest school was Laguana Beach, D4 from the SS with 1084.
I think this could be tricky. What if a kid gets bumped up as an individual, and he could have been on the podium but in open missed out? Does he prefer to be in the tougher race, or would he have rather had a State medal? Or a team that takes second in their section, and ends up on the podium at State while the team that was the section champion ends up the back of the pack in open? How do the kids feel in this situation? In the big meets, like Mt. SAC that have championship/sweeps/open divisions, the last place team might have podiumed in a regular race--and some teams choose to be in regular races and win when they could have been middle of the pack in a sweeps race.
ReplyDeleteI know I don't have an answer I am 100% comfortable with, any proposal for a different format I personally can think of still has some things that might not be great for some kids or teams, and those negative impacts make me stop and worry a bit.
Due to no school boundaries for a private school each student should be counted as 2. St. Francis has no boundaries. They are a D1 school.
ReplyDelete