http://www.prepcaltrack.com/ATHLETICS/XC/2013/ccsguess.htm
Best race of the day? Toughest race to make state? Fastest time overall for boys? Girls? Best boys team overall? Girls? Best dual for individual title? Best team battle?
Best race of the day? Toughest race to make state? Fastest time overall for boys? Girls? Best boys team overall? Girls? Best dual for individual title? Best team battle?
Saint Francis boys with the fastest projected team time shows a flaw in the conversion times from Woodard Park to Crystal Springs when they haven't run those times on Crystal Springs this year
ReplyDeleteFascinating- any statisticians going to chime in with comments? I see the 9:18 comment on St. Francis which throws that division's estimate into doubt- any others?
ReplyDeleteAnyone know why the D5 PSAL teams do not have any qualifying times? Do they have a final? What were the times?
ReplyDeleteA few observations...
ReplyDelete1. Read the fine print. Walt says there are some anomalies with the Woodward Park times. He takes the Personal Best times, not the league finals times. Also WCAL was not ideal racing conditions by any account so it will be interesting how it all comes together on Saturday.
2. Only 4 D5 teams? I think this should be looked at on the State level. Perhaps ass the enrollment to 750? There are just not many (quantity, not quality) teams to make that division justifiable.
3. Chip timing will be used this year!?!
There are more than 4 D5 teams: 7 D5 girls teams and 10 D5 boys teams. How many do you need to justify the division? PSAL times?
ReplyDeleteThis is cross country. There should be 16 teams minimum on the starting line. There are 23 at State!!!
ReplyDeleteI don't see PSAL results posted on Hank's site.
ReplyDeleteAs for the amount of teams for the Division V race, there are Div. V teams that could run at CCS but didn't qualify from their league.
Division V, by the way, is very justifiable. Just check out the teams from NCS and SS. There are many good teams and the division gets more competitive each year. Unfortunately, there are not many schools that qualify as Div. V in CCS which results in the number of teams you see in the entries.
I believe chip timing will be used this year. It says they are in the CCS bulletin for the meet.
PSAL results:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.prepcaltrack.com/ATHLETICS/XC/2013/psal_res.htm
sorry folks, this is what they sent me. Looks like what they might have sent to McConnell as well (qualifiers) without sending him the League Standings.
hank
The small fields are due to the qualifying methods from league to CCS.
ReplyDeleteD2 boys need to be redone I'm sorry. There are definitely some anomalies.
ReplyDeleteThere aren't any "anomalies" did you read the foreword? The projections are correct according to the times ran if you check the Clovis Invitational.
ReplyDeleteSweet! No need to race Saturday ;)
ReplyDeleteGood luck to all teams and individuals and congrats ahead of time to those that make State!
On another note, don't look too much into these folks... the race is Saturday! Rankings and projections are just that... thanks to those that take the time to actually do them for our enjoyment :)
Coach Ibarra
North Monterey County
Looking forward to Girls D3. Cate Ratliff (Santa Cruz) and Clare Peabody (Aptos). Dark horse Matti Peoples (Aptos).
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see if Anna Maxwell or Sara Robinson have the fastest time of the day.
I don't know the schedule.. so I'm uncertain about who gets to run early.
The order of the divisions starting at 10AM are Divisions 2, 3, 4, 5 and 1. Girls first.
ReplyDeleteYes, there are errors in the conversions from Clovis Invite. I actually see many errors in these predictions, and yes, I did read how it was done, and there are errors.
ReplyDeleteHowever, as Coach Ibarra said, of course none of the predictions matter as they are just for our enjoyment, and the only thing that matters is what happens Saturday.
Good luck to all that are competing! It will be a fun day.
Can you point out an example of one of these errors? I'm confused.
ReplyDeleteYes, chip timing will be used this year. Mark McConnell (who normally does the CCS meet) is unavailable so Sean Laughlin of RecordTiming (Stanford, NCS, State) will be doing the timing with chips. He will also have the results up real-time at:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rtspt.com/events/cif/ccsxc13/
hank
I think there is a error in the Pinto Lake conversion, Anna Maxwell ran 16:30 at Pinto Lake witch was 23 sec faster than the old record set by Nikki Hiltz and Anna is only ranked at 16:56.
ReplyDeleteD1 girls: Predicting that Sarah Robinson will break 17, but Gunn will win the team title with Menlo-Atherton second. What happened to the Salinas team, aren't they supposed to be defending champions? Oh well. Also are times from the Serra Invite included in the estimated finishes? Because some runners ran their personal best at Serra, and that may or may not change predictions.
ReplyDeleteWho wins the D5 girls race? Hard to tell without all of the times listed.
ReplyDeleteWhy are the seaside boys ranked so high??? No way they even come close to beating scotts valley!
ReplyDeleteThe toughest and most exciting race of the day (team-wise) will be the Boys Division 2 race. There are 7 Boys Division 2 teams ranked in the overall top 15 for all 5 divisions in CCS according to the most recent rankings. That is deep as there are only 4 Division 1 teams in the top 15. Any of the top 4 teams in Division 2 could end up with the CCS title in my opinion, and any of those 4 teams could end up not going to State as only the top 3 make it.
ReplyDeleteI think Anna's time of 16:56 is from her Mt. SAC time, not Pinto. Hank has a virtual CCS meet (based on league results) where it shows the conversion from Pinto to Crystal. (+36 seconds)
ReplyDeleteSeaside is better than you might think... look at their Clovis invite run... when their top 3-4 guys are running well they are a top 5 state team and could win CCS... they won last year and have most guys back...
ReplyDeleteCoach Ibarra
North Monterey
Chip timing? Oh man....now I'm nervous ;) just kidding... we just had an awful experience with them several times this year...I'm sure they will be fine... right? ;)
ReplyDeleteCoach Ibarra
Sean is one of the best timers in the United States. I am confident the meet won't have any issues in regards to the timing and scoring.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he was the timer for all future CCS meets.
Common Albert - how's a guy going to get a chance to time CCS when you make a comment like that... kidding aside, depends how busy the man wants to be - he's already timing the NCAA D1 West Reg the day before up in Sac then CCS the next day, what happens when D1 is up in Oregon? I guess he might need to buy more toys so he can have the gear to do more meets in one weekend... come to think of it, isn't D1 usually on a Sat the same weekend as CCS... hmmmmmmm
ReplyDeletehank
good luck to all you CCS folks!
ReplyDelete"isn't D1 usually on a Sat the same weekend as CCS"
ReplyDeleteNCAA D1 regionals have moved to Fridays now that the NCAA finals have moved to the Saturday before Thanksgiving (as opposed to the Monday in previous years).