tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post7050068626776748489..comments2024-03-27T17:43:26.504-07:00Comments on Cross Country Express: K-Bell Invitational has been cancelledAlbert Caruanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14434646351717864405noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-12362250572688100702020-03-15T09:53:55.170-07:002020-03-15T09:53:55.170-07:00A school superintendent said something profound in...A school superintendent said something profound in his address cancelling school for the next 3 weeks. He said: In the end, it will be impossible to know if we overreacted or did too much, but it will be QUITE apparent if we under reacted or did too little.<br />Hear those words....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-8041976786787019262020-03-12T17:56:40.218-07:002020-03-12T17:56:40.218-07:00By the way the SF Unified School District is close...By the way the SF Unified School District is closed now and will stay closed for weeks. Dan, I am sure your son's school will soon be closed, for the very reasons you cite.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-72614309907343298462020-03-12T17:46:54.409-07:002020-03-12T17:46:54.409-07:00This is the doctor again and this will be my last ...This is the doctor again and this will be my last post on the subject. Yes, I totally understand the frustration and disappointment. My older daughter is a senior with a PB of 5:08 in the 1600. She had hopes of breaking 5:05 this year and dreams of breaking 5:00. She may well not get the chance. She also is the anchor of one of the top DMR teams in nor Cal and the team was looking to improve on its top tier finish at Dublin and then Arcadia from last year, but all that seems to be out the window now. She's sad. <br /><br />Nevertheless, let's get real. We are in touch with the doctors and public health physicians in northern Italy and it is chaos there. They do not have enough ICU beds or ventilators. This is not conjecture. American hospitals run a capacity nearly all of the time with sick patients with all sorts of illnesses. Our ICUs are full already. We have little to no surge capacity and it is not that easy to build. You would think there is a lot of flexibility in the system, but there's not. We are doing our best to plan for the surge, but it will not take a lot of ill patients with COVID 19 to push us to the brink. The other diseases do not know to cease and desist because we have a new pandemic. You are correct, the final numbers of mortality are far from certain, but this is a dangerous virus when if infects vulnerable people. Did you see what happened in the nursing home outside of Seattle? The entire population ended up in the hospital, many in the ICU and I think 20% have died. The reason behind all of the social distancing is that people, like the hs kids, who themselves do not get sick, can still serve to spread the virus into new communities with vulnerable people. It does not matter if they do not have a direct vulnerable contact, it is just a multiplier effect. HS kids are not being singled out, we should not be getting together in large groups, swapping aerosol and then dispersing, not in the theater or at an NBA game or at the Dublin track. As for every day life activities, yes, keep a little distance when you don't know if people are sick and was your hands after you pump the gas. If you don't think social distancing works, then you do not know about infectious disease epidemiology. This is not conjecture, this is fact. Finally, whoever wants to know why the US gov't is not treating it as such a threat? I don't want this to veer into politics, but seriously?? I recommend you listen to the public pronouncements of our CA gov't. Botton line, in the sort of society we live in, it is hard to do what China did to halt the viruses progression. This chat is a testament to that fact. I hope it all turns our totally well and you can all tell me, "I told you so." I won't take it personally. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-23335904931814400602020-03-12T15:32:27.412-07:002020-03-12T15:32:27.412-07:00@ Anonymous physician - you are proving my point e...@ Anonymous physician - you are proving my point exactly. This disease almost entirely affects the very elderly and the (already) very ill. So, why do our high schoolers have to take the hit for them? It's entirely unfair.<br /><br />As someone else already mentioned, we could still continue the track meets but just add mandatory signed waivers to prevent any lawsuits. <br /><br />And as Dan Steplight said, if this is such a national emergency and absolute pandemic, why isn't the US Govt treating it as such? We should all be quarantined inside our houses right now and not allowed to leave.<br /><br />Enough with the freakouts. You guys look like doomsday prophets right now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-35373485710584320722020-03-12T15:32:26.056-07:002020-03-12T15:32:26.056-07:00I hope Comcast/Xfinity will give everyone a break ...I hope Comcast/Xfinity will give everyone a break from their 1TB of data a month that they're allowed to use. With everyone binge watching Netflix or playing on line video games for the next 2-3 weeks, I'm sure you'll go over your limit.<br /><br />hankHankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03193101636229726446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-11606580959617142732020-03-12T15:00:23.290-07:002020-03-12T15:00:23.290-07:00
Thank you Anonymous Dr. I would urge you to go ba...<br />Thank you Anonymous Dr. I would urge you to go back and read your three points. Many of your statements are not facts. <br /><br />Unless you have intimate knowledge of the European health care system and their current hospital occupancy rates, not sure you can make those claims. I am not aware of or nor have I read anywhere that there could be a shortage of ICU beds in US hospital beds. These are conjectures and not facts.<br /><br />One big issue with China is that we do not have very good information from them and the transmission and death rates from them are suspect. It is a fact that they have cracked down and basically put martial law in place to prevent the spread of the virus. It is also a fact that our testing is woefully behind.<br /><br />Your mortality and transmission rates are only facts for the moment in time that they are taken. These statistics change daily if not hourly. Saying 10% of all people over 80 will die might be a fact for the moment. It could dip to 5% tomorrow or be 15% by Monday. I could also say that 90% of those over 80 will live. Statistics are facts that can be used create whatever narrative one wants to paint.<br /><br />I am not saying that this virus is not a problem. It most certainly is and will be for the foreseeable future. I don’t disagree with taking steps to mitigate the spread of the virus. But in my opinion, if you’re going to cancel track meets, basketball games and other events, then go the China route. My son goes to school with 2000 other kids who rotate classes every hour. I just went to the grocery store where I got gas and touched a pump handle that’s probably been touched by 20-30 people this morning. I then went to the grocery store and grabbed a basket that has been touched by who knows how many people. My mail was just delivered. You get my point. I have less interaction with people at track meets than any of the other activities I just listed. If you want to nip it in the bud, then let’s shut down everything for 2-3 weeks. Let’s not pick and choose the events that have the least impact on people’s daily lives if this is so serious.<br /><br />Albert- Thank you for the forum and I promise not to keep dragging this on. Plus my son get’s mad when I post on here. Ha Ha! Dan Steplighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15833637098958871115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-6003487717427896872020-03-12T13:58:51.109-07:002020-03-12T13:58:51.109-07:00Stanford Invitational canceled.Stanford Invitational canceled.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-3707802881686041162020-03-12T13:43:54.332-07:002020-03-12T13:43:54.332-07:00They have canceled March Madness, suspended NBA/NH...They have canceled March Madness, suspended NBA/NHL... delayed baseball etc. etc. There is no way a high school meet director can justify hosting a track and field meet at this point. Albert Caruanahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14434646351717864405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-91675491093599676232020-03-12T13:21:44.217-07:002020-03-12T13:21:44.217-07:00"Cancelling every track meet based on an irra..."Cancelling every track meet based on an irrational fear driven by EMOTI, not FACTS, is completely stupid."<br /><br />I am physician at UCSF spending a lot of time doing surge preparations. Here are the facts as of today:<br /><br />1. The rate of rise of COVID 19 cases in Europe will result in a demand for ICU beds that far exceeds capacity by the end of March. This has already happened in northern Italy. We are at great risk for this happening this spring in US hot spots like Seattle, Bay area and NY. <br /><br />2. Rates of transmission in Europe now equal or exceed what was happening in Hubei Province, China in mid January. China brought things under control by enforced and rather severe social distancing (no work, no school, no social gatherings) and with widespread testing and appropriate quarantine. We do not have very good testing capacity yet in the US.<br /><br />3. COVID 19 is MUCH WORSE than the seasonal flu. The transmissibility is much higher. For every flu patient, 1.3 other individuals get infected. For COVID 19, the ratio is 1:3. COVID 19 is much more dangerous to the elderly and frail. For those over 60 the flu mortality is 1% and for COVID 19 is 6% and probably greater than 10% for those over 80. On the good side, there is little or no mortality for the young with COVID 19, while the flu is hard on young children.<br /><br />These are the facts as best we know them on 3/12/20. Based on these facts, I think the meet organizers are not panicking, they are making wise decisions in cancelling or postponing meets. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-77728850691735166352020-03-12T11:33:37.384-07:002020-03-12T11:33:37.384-07:00Eddie hart at pittsburg is cancelledEddie hart at pittsburg is cancelledJamiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18437857752202250855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-84142736772801982932020-03-12T10:43:42.523-07:002020-03-12T10:43:42.523-07:00"There is no such thing as cancelling large g..."There is no such thing as cancelling large gatherings, you are LIVING in a large gathering every day. Every time you go to the store - that's a large gathering. Every time you go to work - that's a large gathering. Every time you go to church, ride the bus, take the train, go to a party, go out to eat at a restaurant, etc etc etc. All of these things are unavoidable, unless you live on an island by yourself.<br /><br />Cancelling every track meet based on an irrational fear driven by EMOTION, not FACTS, is completely stupid."<br /><br />Very well said. We have to adjust to a new way of living. We now have the internet where information is spread quickly and not always vetted which causes fear and panic. <br /><br />My son is a sophomore, and although he will be disappointed if some of these big meets are cancelled outright and not rescheduled, he still has two years. But I am very frustrated for those kids, high school and college, who are seniors and it's their last chance to participate in these events. If the organizer is still holding the event, ie: (NCAA Championships) then it should be up to that individual to make the decision to participate. It would be very simple to have them sign a waiver to indemnify the college and then quarantine them after the meet. Not to beat a dead horse, but there are ways to mitigate this so that we can still live our lives.Dan Steplighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15833637098958871115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-42216625340043784532020-03-12T09:36:44.321-07:002020-03-12T09:36:44.321-07:00Wildcat Relays shut downWildcat Relays shut downAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-40147063631821852572020-03-12T09:36:17.742-07:002020-03-12T09:36:17.742-07:00Dublin Distance Postponed until late AprilDublin Distance Postponed until late AprilAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-71650183816023701232020-03-12T09:31:18.672-07:002020-03-12T09:31:18.672-07:00I have heard that DDF has officially been cancelle...I have heard that DDF has officially been cancelled.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-61657294735972332042020-03-12T07:11:31.012-07:002020-03-12T07:11:31.012-07:00Oakland Relays have been cancelledOakland Relays have been cancelledUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11757210138964357102noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-30763315332844376022020-03-12T06:46:13.493-07:002020-03-12T06:46:13.493-07:00Lots of acrimony over this issue. California offi...Lots of acrimony over this issue. California officials just offered guidance that all group gatherings of over 250 people be cancelled. No way DDF or any other large meet is going to happen or should happen in the foreseeable future. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-2228256978267473622020-03-12T06:31:19.551-07:002020-03-12T06:31:19.551-07:00A statement that stood out to me:
"I feel l...A statement that stood out to me:<br /><br /> "I feel like I'd rather say 'hey, remember when we overreacted to the whole COVID-19 scare wow we were so stupid' years from now rather than "hey remember when we just carried on like normal instead of taking proper precautions and put the most vulnerable people in danger."<br />Jaredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11962181434430424505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-59727307281309363432020-03-11T22:50:33.026-07:002020-03-11T22:50:33.026-07:00@ Anonymous 10:02
Yes, it is more important that ...@ Anonymous 10:02<br /><br />Yes, it is more important that high schoolers get to compete for what they've trained so hard for (often, YEARS of training), rather than live in a self-quarantined bubble so that some octegenarian doesn't croak if somebody coughs.<br /><br />Coronoavirus is literally LESS dangerous than the flu, Period. Everyone needs to stop screaming the sky is falling. Do basic research and stop listening to fake news.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-8306881637824255872020-03-11T22:02:23.392-07:002020-03-11T22:02:23.392-07:00To the extent you can believe the case number and ...To the extent you can believe the case number and mortality reported by China, their "success" at limiting the spread of the virus was because they went to a total lockdown of society. Nobody left their homes or went to work in Hubei province for weeks. You think they were running high school track meets? The last two posters don't get it. Sure, 95 year olds can avoid attending DDF, but they can't avoid the spread of the virus in their communities accelerated by large gatherings like DDF. No, everyday life is not a large gathering if we have the will to change our behavior for a few months to save lives. You all really think it's more important to provide an opportunity for somebody to break 9:30 in the 3200 in mid March, than to do the right think and prevent the spread of this disease?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-38677429664951736432020-03-11T21:51:26.147-07:002020-03-11T21:51:26.147-07:00It looks like Alameda County (Dublin) released gui...It looks like Alameda County (Dublin) released guidelines for events, and suggest events over 1000 people should be canceled or postponed. <br /><br />http://www.acphd.org/media/558618/alameda-county-guidance-for-mass-gatherings-20200310.pdf<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-30173784847510672062020-03-11T21:48:50.576-07:002020-03-11T21:48:50.576-07:00@ Anonymous March 11th 9:30:
There is no such thi...@ Anonymous March 11th 9:30:<br /><br />There is no such thing as cancelling large gatherings, you are LIVING in a large gathering every day. Every time you go to the store - that's a large gathering. Every time you go to work - that's a large gathering. Every time you go to church, ride the bus, take the train, go to a party, go out to eat at a restaurant, etc etc etc. All of these things are unavoidable, unless you live on an island by yourself.<br /><br />Cancelling every track meet based on an irrational fear driven by EMOTION, not FACTS, is completely stupid.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-80379755985951049932020-03-11T21:43:54.252-07:002020-03-11T21:43:54.252-07:00^ Patrick D is absolutely correct. This spectacula...^ Patrick D is absolutely correct. This spectacular public freakout and overreaction to a virus less dangerous than the common household flu is ridiculous.<br /><br />China has reported 80,000 cases of the coronavirus. Only 3,000 have died. That's a 3.7% death rate, and most of these deaths have been old people. <br /><br />To put this in perspective, the CDC predicts that around 12,000 Americans will die from the flu in any given year.<br /><br />Stop cancelling meets. If you're so scared that you will keel over from a foreign flu because your immune system sucks or because you are 95, then just stay home and don't risk it. Again, it is an ABSURD emotional overreaction to just shut everything down. Beyond ludicrous.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-33624667670473325562020-03-11T21:30:49.452-07:002020-03-11T21:30:49.452-07:00Wow, that's not how a pandemic works. The cha...Wow, that's not how a pandemic works. The chaos in Italy is what happens when we leave decisions to "common sense." The key to minimizing the damage of this outbreak comes from limiting the total case number, AND limiting the rate of rise. When the rate of rise is high, the health care system can easily become overwhelmed. The surge in cases is a major driver of excess morbidity and mortality. Big gatherings like DDF drive the surge. Asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic carriers infect others who then go back and infect vulnerable people in their communities. What is clear is that COVID 19 is very infectious (several fold compared to the flu) and that the mortality rate in vulnerable people is very high (many fold worse than the flu). Yes, it is true the athletes are not going to get very sick, but that is not the point. Cancelling large gatherings is protecting the community. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-77412025325396563962020-03-11T21:04:27.843-07:002020-03-11T21:04:27.843-07:00The answer is common sense social distancing. Canc...The answer is common sense social distancing. Cancelling everything is not common sense. People taking personal responsibility to decide if they need to stay home is a better answer. We can’t stop the spread as it’s already among us. Those who are at risk and those who are regularly around them need to make the call, not deciding that for everyone. We will very likely discover that the fatality rate is not 30x flu and it was an over reaction for a whole variety of reasons. Let’s not give into panic and look at the facts. Look at S Korea who has been testing broadly and the rates are not 3%.Patrick Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11918540627770331539noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31292861.post-25696621005604147162020-03-11T20:37:24.249-07:002020-03-11T20:37:24.249-07:00The DDF and EBAL meet scheduled for this weekend a...The DDF and EBAL meet scheduled for this weekend at Dublin High should be cancelled. Not a fear monger or panicing. Just being prudent. The NBA shut down this evening and the NHL will likely follow quickly with similar action. Why are we having college and high school events? Feel bad for the kids who have worked hard and count on these meets to compete and qualify for other meets, but this is simply a public health matter that must be dealt with great caution.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com