Saturday, July 16, 2011

NCS Division I pre-season rankings by Amador Valley coach, Jason Oswalt...

And last but definitely not least, Division I.  Thanks to Amador Valley HS coach Jason Oswalt for the following rankings.  Feel free to comment on the following rankings in the comment section below.
NCS Division I pre-season Cross Country Rankings link

More CCS rankings to follow this week and eventually I will get rolling with the SJS rankings once the CBEDs are posted.  Until then check out the SJS site for all the current updates and past section results.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

great job

Mattern said...

Amazing! I don't know how much time you spent on it but it was impressive. On the girls side I do think that AV is the team to beat and there is no way around that. I do want to take some pressure off Hartley. Compound fracture, not stress fracture. If she is able to race this xc season it would be nothing less than miraculous. Look for her in spring 2012.

Anonymous said...

..great job!! If you are going for a PhD..this will prepare you for writing your thesis!!

Andrew said...

Excellent work. Very impressed by the depth of the research done for each team. I agree with both rankings, but I'm just not sure about the Santa Rosa boys. No one knows how they'll do and of course that's a reason why they should be ranked top 5 after some success in D2.

Jason, you're also very modest with your boys rankings, haha. I would honestly put them top 3 and any of the top 3 spots could be argued for them.

The girls rankings are spot on. I didn't know Hartley's injury was that serious...I hope she gets healthy.

Your participation in EBAL has given you such insight on the best league in NCS and all the JV and F/S runners. That said, its nice to be under the radar ;). See you all soon! Have a great second half of summer training.

Anonymous said...

it looks like you researched a lot before writing this and i thank you for providing all this insight. ncs boys d1 is going to be a dogfight and should be exciting to watch. the predictions seem to be pretty accurate, but then again anything can happen from here to the end of the season. we will wait and see. but i must say i think the av boys could very well be in the top 3 on the right day, i think they may be a little underrated at the moment

Anonymous said...

Great job with these! Very balanced, and unbiased. Santa Rosa should be interesting to watch, like you said.

Coach Ozzie said...

Thank you everyone for your compliments. I did my best. I think the hardest thing about doing this is ranking my own team. As I said in the beginning, I always think my team is better than everybody else, but I try to follow the data and not my heart. I placed a premium on experience and we only have two runners who have run at NCS before (De La Salle got a pass because of their demonstrated ability to transition people in seamlessly). Still, I probably tend to underrate my teams for fear of ranking them to high based on my desires alone. Noel, because I don't have all the information, I ranked the Granada girls as if Sophie would be exactly the same at the end of this season as she was last season. If that is not reality, then it might have changed things, but your team is still very good. Best of luck to Sophie in her continued recovery. As for the PhD comment, I'm not sure if this world has room for another Dr. Oz.

Peter Brewer said...

Jason:

Of course you underrate your own team. It's your rankings, so you can low ball your own squad. That way they won't get any swelled heads early on and actually run hard and scared.

I did it for years with my squad when I did rankings, and it worked . . . sometimes.

Peter

Very Objective Observer said...

I feel like these might be the most unerringly accurate rankings yet, very well done, but yeah as people have said I think the Amador lads will do a bit better than this, but this will keep 'em hungry so to speak.

MV Coach Davis said...

Ozzie - On behalf of all the runners and coaches in NCS D1: THANK YOU. It scares me how well you know the section and especially the EBAL teams.

The rest of us can only hope that you remain stuck behind a computer keyboard and not out coaching your team. To that end, could you please summarize the Frosh Soph and JV teams for us all? Maybe take the analysis 10 or 20 kids deep. take your time, finish up sometime in December!

Quenton Cassidy said...

tl;dr

Anonymous said...

These are amazing! The girls are spot on. You really know this league and have done your research! Thanks for all the wonderful insight!