Division I
Girls - (Top
2 teams advance to state meet):
1. Granada
2. College Park
3. Amador Valley
4. Monte Vista
5. Livermore
Boys - (Top 2 teams advance to state meet):
1. De La Salle
2. College Park
3. Amador Valley
4. Livermore
5. Monte Vista
Division II
Girls - (Top
3 teams advance to state meet):
1. San Ramon Valley
2. Santa Rosa
3. Carondelet
4. Clayton Valley
5. Casa Grande
Boys - (Top
3 teams advance to state meet):
1. San Ramon Valley
2. Santa Rosa
3. Mt. Eden
4. Alameda
5. Casa Grande
Division III
Girls - (Top
4 teams advance to state meet):
1. Campolindo
2. Acalanes
3. Maria Carrillo
4. Petaluma
5. Redwood
Boys - (Top
4 teams advance to state meet):
1. Campolindo
2. Petaluma
3. Piner
4. Las Lomas
5. Maria Carrillo
Division IV
Girls - (Top
3 teams advance to state meet):
1. Sir Francis Drake
2. Tamalpais
3. Terra Linda
4. St. Mary’s
Berkeley
5. Moreau Catholic
Boys - (Top
4 teams advance to state meet):
1. San Rafael
2. Sir Francis Drake
3. Tamalpais
4. St. Mary’s
Berkeley
5. University
Division V
Girls - (Top
5 teams advance to state meet):
1. University
2. College Prep
3. Urban
4. Branson
5. Marin Academy
Boys - (Top
5 teams advance to state meet):
1. Urban
2. St. Joseph’s
3. International
4. College Prep
5. Sonoma Academy
Comments? This is one person's opinion (mine) so feel free to chime in your thoughts on what could possibly take place this Saturday.
167 comments:
Does anyone know what Santa Rosa's times at Spring Lake match up with on the NCS course?
Spring Lake (4,91km): solid: 4,4% faster than Woodward Park; 1,3% faster than Hayward; e.g. 16:30 at Woodward Park ~ 15:50 at Spring Lake.
The above is courtesy of Sstoz Tes.
Similarly, what is the conversion from Shadow Cliff to Hayward?
How difficult do you think it would be for a D1 team to upset College Park or De La Salle for a spot to state?
Washington HS girls should be ranked in the top 5 at NCS.
urban will not beat st. joes
Eureka> Maria Carillo for D3 boys?
nick ratto will win the d5 race
Nick Ratto wins over Gabe Arias? k...
well gabe is just a freshman
I don't have a conversion from Shadow Cliff to Hayward. Can anybody help on this?
Amador Valley has the best shot of beating DLS and CP and they were 52 points behind DLS at their league meet.
I may have whiffed on the Washington girls so we'll see on Saturday.
I mentioned this in the article but Urban needs the return to health of their #3 man.
that doesn't mean that all the tables are going to turn just because hes younger. I mean sure Nick has more experience, but i'd say Gabe has the statistical advantage.
Better question: Who has a bettr chance of choking? DLS or College Park?
DeLaSalle is a lock. College Park however does not have a strong #5 and if one of their top 4 has a bad day they could be upset by either Amador Valley or Livermore.
cole, nick, or gabe for the w????
well gabe ran 15:45 at their league champs, and Nick ran a 16:06 last year. The interesting thing is, last year Alameda's #1 guy, Charlie Perkins, ran 16:23 at that course, and then went on to run 15:33 at the NCS meet, so who knows how fast these guys may run on saturday.
Is it true that DLS is only deep through their 6th guy?
i mean nick ran the 16:06 this year
what about cole???
how does division 5 advance 5 teams to state, there are at least 10 D3 teams that deserve it more.
So I know SRV has Deuel, Devries, Hardy and company on the boys side, and they'll likely do well in the D2 race, but who does SR have on the girls' side that merits their top ranking? Hebel is fast, if inconsistent, but do they have any depth beyond her?
who has a better chance of winning ncs cole williams or gabe aries??????
The Division V teams in NCS have done very well at the state meet (ie. lots of top 10 finishes) which is how they have 5 entries to state. The girls just added one more this year.
Conversion from shadow cliffs to Hayward is roughly 25 sec.DLS is a lock to make it in D1 , Amador has a shot at college park. Washington girls could be third if there 5th can improve.Castro Valley girls and boys are total wild cards, but 3rd is about the highest either can climb-5th or 6th is closer to reality.
Gabe wins over Cole.
I say Amador beats College park for the #2 spot in D1.
Its doesnt seem like mt.eden should be 3rd i would say 2nd at the worst.
gabe for sure
*shouldn't
Aidan Goltra top 5?
Charlie Perkins was not even close to trying at Pt Pinole last year.
Considering Mt. Edens 4 and 5 guys are barley above 17:00 at Hayward, I wouldn't assume they can be given 2nd place comfortably.
There's going to be upsets all over the place in boys d3
Cole Williams experience wins it over the freshman.
Where did the Santa Rosa boys run well enough this year to get them ranked #2?
D3 is really anyones game besides Campo and Petaluma. Piner, Las lomas, maria carillo, look great, but if one has a bad race look for Alcalanes, Bishop O'Dowd, and Miramonte to pull some upsets.
and eureka could be a upset potentail ^
"The freshman" beats Cole, regardless of how young he is. Its not like he doesn't know how to race, if experience was such a factor, Gabe wouldn't have done as well as he did.
i can assure you mt edens #4  were not going all out.
yeah, no big deal, just league championships, no need to go all out or anything.
This was the first time Mt. Eden has won a League title since like 1969, or so I've been told..... so if they weren't going all out, what are they waiting for, 2070?
Anyway, that D3 race should be quite a tussle. D1 and D2 look pretty safe for DLS and SRV respectively... Amador may yet come through with the upset over College Park though, don't count them out yet.
Wrong. Mt. Eden was waiting till 2069. Get it straight.
In 2007 Amador got 2nd behind Monte Vista when they beat them at League Championships and then later at State that same year. in 2008 Amador got 2nd behind College Park before beating them at State that same year. Amador was ranked #1 in D1 both those years and they just had bad days at NCS. Being on the top of the totem pole hasn't worked well for them in the past. So maybe the fact that they are ranked 3rd this year and HAVE to beat College Park to get to state, is just the motivation they need.
If your team doesn't need you to go all out to get a win why would you? waste of energy.
except they did. Castro valley wasn't that far behind.
If they were that worried about CV don't you think they would have stacked var instead of running 5. The facts dont match what your saying.
No. Considering Mt. eden is only 5 deep "Stacking" Var wouldn't have really done anything in terms of getting in the way of CV's scorers.
That is very true. That would have meant something, Running 5 is a huge risk anything can go wrong.
Mt Eden's 5 guy PR'd buy 20 seconds, but 4 ran 10 seconds slower. However, the two runners that Mt Eden did not run were not scoring runners for any race that Mt Eden has run thus far. I think it's safe to say they ran their scoring 5 and ran pretty hard, however note that one of their guys PR'd big but two slowed down.
none of you know what youre talking about. college parks top 4 is so ridiculously strong that saying amador valley is gonna beat them is just plain dumb and even saying dls is gonna beat them is still a huge reach. pay attention to every race this year and last year. those top 4, especially jeff bickert and anthony ortolan DO NOT ever choke. yes they are weak after number 4, but not weak enough for DLS to make up the gap.
and also, amador is known to choke at ncs. cp is known to upset and run great at ncs.
CP WINNERS BY A LONG SHOT
We will just have to wait and see how things play out on Saturday......
And also, who ever wrote the comment about how CP beat AV at NCS in 2008 then lost to them at state, look up your facts. CP's number 4, Will Holland, got sick the night before state so there number 8 guy had to step in and run.
Soooo Mt. Edens 5 guy had a 20 second PR and wasn't going all out?
Saturday will be interesting to say the least...
soooo Gabe Arias over Cole Williams right?
I do agree that people are underestimating the College Park top 4. But if DLS puts 3 in the top 10, their 5 will be quite ahead of the CP's 5.
Ok I do agree DLS could be a challenge for CP, but to try and bring AV into the mix is plain ignorant.
Listen to the the words:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkBOI4lNfYs&feature=recentf
regardless of effort, Mt. Eden did great on Saturday, and should be Interesting to watch during NCS.
WHAT IS THE RACE TO WATCH?
D3 Boys, D1 Boys.
D3 Boys, D1 Boys.
This is a passage that puts some reason into previous predicitons.
"Here's the thing that makes life so interesting. The theory of evolution claims that "only the strong shall survive". Maybe so, maybe so. But the theory of competition says, "Just because they're the strong doesn't mean they can't get their asses kicked". That's right. See; what every long shot, come from behind, underdog will tell you is this: the other guy may in fact be the favorite; the odds may be stacked against you. Fair enough. But what the odds don't know is, this isn't a math test. This is a completely different kind of test. One where passion, has a funny way of trumping logic. So before you step up to the starting line, before the whistle blows, and the clocks start ticking just remember: out here the results don't always add up. No matter what the stats may say and the experts may think and the commentators may have predicted, when the race is on, all bets are off. Don't be surprised be if someone decides to flip the script and take a pass on yelling "Uncle". And then suddenly as the old saying goes, "WE'VE GOT OURSELVES A GAME"."
D2 BOYS
ALAMEDA IS GOING TO UPSET!!!
Not really feelin' the AHS upset here. From the looks of Alamedas's Mt SAC times, they were right around those of SRV's current runners...when they ran it A YEAR AGO.
DIV Girls: top girl, Ryan, apparently not running anymore for Drake. That drops them if she does not run.
Also, look for Spencer Moore of St Marys to dominate!!
DIII Boys; don't discount Eureka--especially if it rains as expected--they are used to wet weather up in Eureka!
DV Boys--Gabe is class of NCS Div. V
Yeah Alameda... You can still make it to state... if you have a time machine...
Wow, no Ryan for Drake...is Tam (according to Albert's rankings) good enough to catch them though? Can any other D4 team get them? Drake was pretty far and away the best team in D4, so it will hurt them, but to cost them the title?
Alameda's top guys would need to run like 20 seconds faster than what their Mt Sac times indicate they would run at Hayward.
Unless College Park Cloned one of their top 3, they aren't going to win.
Prediction: Miramonte's gonna upset. They were a point from Las Lomas at league and they're not even ranked! Such BS. That's gonna be the race to watch.
DO YOU HAVE A TOP 10 BOYS LIST FOR D4
Sorry for the all caps.
To Richard Kimball and everyone else who seems to be confused or have forgotten, CP has raced DLS twice this season. At Nike Invite, CP beat DLS, their avg time was 25 seconds faster and their overall time was 2 minutes faster.
Then, in a more important race, Mt. Sac, CP beat DLS once again. This time, CP's avg time was ONE MINUTE faster than DLS's avg.
So no Richard, no 'cloning' will need to be done. CP is just going to destroy them again like they have already twice this season.
Nike is ancient history at this point, a cursory look at later results will tell you that a lot has changed since then. And at Mt. SAC, DLS happened to be in the Team Sweepstakes race whereas college park was in some other race.... their results are basically incomparable. But, hyey, whatever makes you feel better.
Richie that made no sense. You say a lot has changed by now so uh can you please explain Mt. Sac? And the results are extremely comparable. I dont care what race they ran in. They both ran the Mt. Sac course did they not? They both ran on the same day, on the same course. Being in the same race wouldnt have helped DLS to make up the 60 second gap PER RUNNER.
But hey, "whatever makes you feel better"
Thank you folks for all the passionate posts. I know everybody feels very strongly about their teams and that is a good thing.
Now we will just have to see how the races pan out on Saturday.
Best of luck to all. I will be at the finish line if anybody would like to come and say hi.
Santa rosa is ready to dominate on saturday the girls are more than ready to take a team to state
Gabe in the D5 Boys may only be a Freshman but he has a lot of experience through USATF. He was also a scoring runner on last years USATF National Championship team.
gabe is ranked #10 on the top 10 d-5 boys in the state. and hes only a freshman. regardless of he wins or not, the fact that as a freshman, he has that much talent is still really impressive.
There seems to be some confusion regarding the Mt. Sac results (with regard to College Park and De La Salle). The results have the average CP runner at 15:12 and the average DLS runner at 16:12, but those are clearly wrong (all the average times appear to be out of whack). CP's total time was 1:19:16 and DLS was 1:20:11 (assuming those results are added correctly). I'm not associated with either school but CP did NOT beat DLS by a minute per man at Mt. Sac.
Yeah that was really annoying. For every team, the average pace is xx:12. No idea why...
Boys D2 who makes it to state? any chance of upsets?
and who will be top 10 finishers
Parker gets top spot in D2. Devries in top 5, SRV wins team title.
Alright guys, this D5 champ debate has run its course (no pun intended). There's only so much arguing you guys can do about the subject. I am sure that it's teammates and coaches getting riled up, which is fine, but we'll just have to wait. The evidence seems to be along the lines of "one guy beat the other guy here," but Saturday is a couple days away, so I think we should just let their legs do the talking from here on out.
boys d3 upset predictions?
FormerD5guy...Saturday might as well be a LIFETIME away, and bench racing is all we've got! Has there ever been an important sporting event that hasn't been debated to death right up to the starting gun/kickoff/first pitch/whatever? This is what fans DO.
All that I'm saying is that the D5 debate has gotten a little monotonous. I like the debating. It's just more interesting to read when the predictions can be backed up with evidence rather than ambiguous statements. What do people have to say about how the d5 team battle will stack up?
I know this is getting pretty long, but it seems to me that Cole has the statistical advantage. He's run 15:49 in the 5k at stanford, and he is ranked 2nd in the state D5 to Gabe's 10th.
hmm, that will be exiting. Both the boys and girls D5 seem very close, I think the University girls will take the girls title, they are ranked first in the state after all. For the boys, i'd say that Urban has a deeper team, but it could go either way.
DLS to beat CP for D1
Will there be indv. rankings for each division?
I concur with Mr. Kimball.
Also I heard Fausto Melara is coming after a couple red shirt seasons to seal the deal for the spartans.
god why have i never thought of posting as quentin cassidy, im making a mental note to do that sometime in the future
C'mon guys. It's Quenton Cassidy.
Ey, we just need 6 more posts after this one to reach 100 comments. Is that some kind of record.
well if anyone was at the mariner race in hayward gabe arias and cole williams race and this is what the runners got 872 Gabe Arias Fr 1. St. Joseph HS-Alameda 17:01.5 1.
2. 1042 Cole Williams Sr 1. Urban School of San Francisco 17:08.9 --
the only reason gabe is 10th and cole is 2nd at state is beacuse cole is a senior and gabes a freshmen and this is a more recent race
I agree, I'd like to see individual rankings per division, if possible.
and at stanford? I believe it went 15:50 to 16:30. Advantage Cole.
did someone mention that there is a article explaining these rankings?
Gabe was hurt at Stanford. And he beat Cole at Nike 15:51 to 17:08.
100
Cole's primary accolades are in the 800m, but there is no doubt he is a great XC runner. He is ranked 2nd in state D5 for a reason. Seeing as he ran 15:57 for the 3mile last year, (on this course) I would bet that he wasnt at top form for Nike.
I see we have one D1 top 10 boys ranking at the top of this thread. can we get another or does everyone think that one is valid? ^
something interesting to note
berkeley has a pretty good freshman, at the accal champs on 11/5, he won the varsity 5k race with a 16:23. Even though Berkeley/him won't qualify to state, keep an eye on him in the years to come
You can find the entire predictions and article inside the meet program on Saturday.
As for individual favorites:
Division I girls-Santisteban and Hartley
Division I boys-Bickert and Eversole
Division II girls-No Nacouzi so who is the favorite?
Division II boys-Deuel
Division III girls-Verdon
Division III boys-Luna
Division IV girls-Moore
Division IV boys-Milechman
Division V girls-McCullough
Division V boys-Williams
How does the Stanford invite times compare to the Hayward course?
"Division II girls-No Nacouzi so who is the favorite?" I like Hebel from SRV in the top 3. She seems to have improved steadily this season. Not really familiar with girls outside EBAL/DFAL, so I might be missing someone.
Here are the girls I mentioned in the preview article for Division II:
Alexandra Tate of Clayton Valley
Amber Piersol of Windsor.
SRV’s Elizabeth Hebel
Ashley Moffet of Casa Grande
Kelly Brooks of Santa Rosa
Did I miss anybody?
Moffett had the best time at the Spring Lake course by far at 18:01, also Piersol was beat by a freshman teammate (Tomaszewski) at their league meet. I don't know how to compare Hebel's and Tate's league times to the Spring Lake league races but here's a guess.
1. Moffett
2. Hebel
3. Tate
4. Brooks
5. Tomaszewski
Moffett did have the best time at Spring Lake in the SCL Finals, but not "by far" Lane from El Molino was only 4 seconds behind in 18:05. Lane is in division IV so maybe you meant that Moffett had the best time among Div III runners by far this would make sense.
Or Div. II if that is the Division Moffett is in. I thought she was Div III. It looks like that is what you meant.
Didn't mean to be Nitpicky. I think Lane may compete in Div IV although Moore from St. Mary's is very good and will be hard to beat.
Moffet had a 45 second lead on the next D2 runner from either the SCL or NBL. Also Moffet's Teammate beat Hall beat Tomaszeksi on that day.
Piersol has been battling injuries all year and was not even healthy at Mt. Sac. She beat Tomaszewski pretty handily in a couple league meets and I think will be healthy enough to beat her at Hayward.
I figured you meant within her Division but I wanted to make a note she didn't run away with that race.
Moffett won by 47 seconds at the Division II race at Mt. Sac, and has become stronger since.
With Nacouzi out and Lane in Division IV, Moffett seems primed to win.
Does anyone know what happened to Bishop O'Dowd at league finals? Were their top runners injured or something?
As for D III individuals, shouldn't Forest Shaffer be mentioned with Luis Luna? They ran very comparable times at Woodward Park (Forest ran 15:52 and Luis ran 15:43). While Luis did run in a much less competitive race, Forest ran his time in much hotter weather and a week before Luis ran his time.
What's with all the Parker Duel predictions? As far as I can tell, he hasn't run a lot of races this year. How can everyone be all over his bandwagon?
Don't forget about Lauren Kraus in Div III She missed league finals with a twisted ankle. I believe she will be a factor if she is 100%
Bishop O'Dowd bonked at finals, but they are all healthy.
Another note about sophomore Ashley Moffett. Her time of 18:01 at Spring Lake was faster than what nacouzi ran there as a sophomore.
As far as Bishop O'Dowd goes, their fine #1 Kaitlin Spees has a staph infection in her foot and is gone for the season. Their very good # 2 Maria Diaz was in bed sick the day of the HAAL finals, but is apparently ready to for NCS>
any news on their boys Peter?
The Bishop O'Dowd boys just didn't get into the race early enough last week. And then they allowed too much separation between # 2 and #'s 3-4-5-6. Their strength is their trailing cluster.
Clearly they have the potential to run better. They may now have the motivation to do so. Whether that is enough to make a difference in the deepest division in the section is still unknown.
because parker deuel ran a 9:22 in the two mile, a 4:25 mile, ran 15:43 last year as a sophomore to come in the top 5 in d-1, and ran a 14:44 3mile at the arcadia invite. face it Parker deuel is going to be the ncs d-2 champ. no one else can really challenge him.
Is it me, or are we seeing a bit if a spike in staph infections? I personally know 3 or 4 kids in EBAL who have had them this season.
yeah o'dowd's weird. what about sam kane from bishop o'dowd? that kid ran like 16:09 last year as a sophomore. now he's like running 16:59? is he injured? can he get up in the individuals for D III? i heard that O'Dowd can have a mean one-two punch, who's their #2?
what are the chances if washington boys making it to state?
Actually Parker jogged in a 9:20 3200 last weekend and he's done a 4:17 1600. Just sayin. Oh and won all 3 ebal meets.
Calvin John is O'Dowd's #2. Hi. Sam Kane was sick at league finals which is why he didn't run as expected. I suffered an unexpected asthma attack. We're hoping for a "mean one two punch" at NCS as Jake described.
so then was sam kane sick for each league race? because it seems like he loves being not 1st
Actually he wasn't sick for each league race. He was injured for a while though and so was myself. Sam actually ran the fastest time in the whole league at oyster bay before he started getting sick and injured. I don't think that I need to respond to your cowardly comment with the bitterness you know it deserves.
i dont think you can make excuses because a runner should run balls out without regrets in the end
if your hurt why race a pointless race why not rest up?
cause there are certain moments in life that conme only once. and moments like that, you dont let them go, you give it all you got and take it. you need to watch without limits and makes Steve Prefontaine your god.
I think the Washington girls will make state, they're definitely running well. What happened to Nacouzi? Why isn't Ryan running for Division IV?
Hey anonymous (Jordan Cruz).
hey calvin john aka(brandon smith)
Hey Anonymous (David Nyguen)
People like writing things under my name now? Haha alright. Just for the record, the last two comments under my name are from someone else. Let's try to get back to the topic of the post and stop wasting Albert Caruana's time.
Yeah... Calvins right Arthur...
Brad Pitt or Keanu Reeves??...
Brad Pitt, nicer lips
Nah, Keanu Reeves has better lips.
Can we please get back on topic? This truly makes the runners in the HAAL look extremely immature and this is unacceptable.
What happened to Washington boys and girls in D II?
Looks like a certainty for rain tomorrow. I wonder who will be affected the most.
I can say D3 boyd will be affected the least. after the first race that course is going to be terrible.
Yep....it's goin' to be interesting....forecast between 7am-1pm calls for 90% chance of rain, winds 10-15 from the ssw and the temp 45-52. One out of 2 ain't bad. The later the race the more muck to deal with. Should be fun!!!
Regarding the weather, are spikes allowed on this course?
Spikes are not allowed in high school cross country in California.
Hi my name is Karsten Kaufman, just wanted to introduce myself. Does anyone have any tips on how to gain weight and/or height?
Thanks!
Good luck tomorrow everyone.
So Albert...you gonna be there in the AM and provide live updates and the day goes on? Dress warmly
I will be there. I will see what I can do about posting some results on twitter.
So College Park beat De La Salle's team time by 55 seconds at Mt. SAC. The times are pretty comparable. It was a little hotter for De La Salle's race though. CP's front runners are the reason for that time tho and remember xc is about score, not time. Should be interesting.
Mt. Eden was definitely not taking it easy last week. They were tied with Castro Valley and Bishop O Dowd and they only beat CV by 6 points in the end so they were going all out.
Just BTW: The bigger difference between those races isn't the heat, its the difference between running 16:00 and being in 15th place in a normal race, and trying to run that same time and being in 75th place in the sweepstakes race and getting buried in the horde. But at this point that's neither here nor there, we'll see how things go tomorrow.
I agree with what my boy D. Will said and look forward to seeing how things pan out between college park and de la salle
and the great question has been answered!
Cole over Gabe.
HA! i know it makes not difference now, not that it would ever have, but Alameda moves on! Shows what you guys all know.
I wonder if Alameda is getting tired of going to Fresno all the time ;)
What the hell is the big deal with Alameda? They got third in DII, and I'm guessing they should be about 25th at state, let's keep things in proportion.
Alameda, congrats on making the time machine.
sure in comparison to all the d-2 teams in california, alameda may not place well. but alameda bounced back from losing 4 of the best runners that they ever had,and made it for the 2nd year in a row to the state meet. They weren't even ranked in the top 5 at the beginning of the season. that's the reason why alameda is so happy. because they had a chance to go to the pinnacle of xc meets in california (i.e. the state meet)
I wonder how Alameda matches up with other D2 teams in the state that have 4 sophs and a freshman as their top 5 (you could look at it as an average grade/class of 9.8). I think they would look pretty good, and that's why the Alameda folks are happy and proud of their team.
Congratulations Alameda on your excellent season and proving myself as well as the rest of your critics wrong. You should be proud of your well earned accomplishments. Now is the time to begin to show a bit more maturity and let your performances do the talking. Best of luck at State and enjoy the experience.
I'll tell you one thing about Alameda-I've had a couple opportunities to chat with their coach this season, and he's about the most gracious, positive coach I've ever met. Very complimentary to my son, who runs on a competing team, and just a decent guy. I'm really glad these kids pulled it off. As a former Jet, this is hard, but go Hornets!
god this was a great thread.
It takes me back to the glory days of my youth.
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