Wednesday, August 05, 2009

2009 NCS Division IV Pre-Season Rankings...

You might think I saved the best division for last but the truth of the matter is that this is always the most difficult division for me to rank. While Division IV in NCS may not be the toughest division, the teams and individuals in this division have certainly fared well at the state meet. In the past two years, St. Mary's Berkeley has collected 3 state meet plaques (2 for the girls and 1 for the boys). The Piedmont boys won the state championship in 2005 before the onslaught of Big Bear victories the next 3 years. This year, the NCS also returns 3 runners who finished in the top 10 in their respective races at the state meet (Dan Milechman of Tamalpais, Dan Maxwell of St. Mary's and Theresa Devine of Marin Catholic).

What makes this division tough to predict is the fluctuation of teams that move from either Division III or V. Some of the teams also have small rosters which make for some great teams one year and not so competitive teams the next. The other part that makes it difficult is that some of the teams compete in leagues whose results you rarely see. That is hopefully not the case anymore. At this point, I can only take history into account as well as the results from last year's meets to give you an idea of the contenders for this coming season.

So what that in mind, here are my predictions for this coming season. The favorite to win the boys' team title has to be St. Mary's Berkeley. They return one of the fastest runners in the state, Dan Maxwell, and 5 out of their top 7 from last year's NCS race. In the past three years, they have won NCS twice ('06 and '07) and finished 2nd last year by 1 point to Tamalpais HS. I am pretty sure they will be plenty motivated this year to reclaim the NCS crown.

That was the easy part. Now comes the guessing part. Last year's champions, Tamalpais, returns the best runner in this division, Dan Milechman, but most of last year's team is off to college. The 3rd place team, San Rafael HS, just missed the NCS title by 5 pts. (68 to 73). They return their top 2 runners, juniors to be Trevor Ehlenbach and Cameron Bronstein but lose graduated senior Brian Hernandez and their best freshman from last year, Tyler Browne, as he is transfering to Redwood HS. 4th place team, Justin Siena, loses their excellent seniors (Kevin Cardey, John Masyczek, Dan DeBleuw and Michael Bozzini) who excelled at both xc and track and field. 5th placer, Piedmont, has veteran coach Doyle O'Regan who keeps churning out good teams in this division. The wild card could be Sir Francis Drake which drops down from Division III and they had a solid group of underclassmen this year that could make an impact.

The favorite to win the individual crown is junior Dan Milechman of Tamalpais. He ran 16:20 as a 9th grader to finish 21st in the always tough Division III race. Last year, despite playing golf during the '08 spring, Milechman had a breakthrough season as he won the NCS title and then went on to finish 3rd. at the state meet. This past spring, Milechman put the golf bag away, ran track and qualified for the state meet in the 1600m. (4:20.36). His road to retaining his title will not be easy as Dan Maxwell of St. Mary's finished 2nd in the NCS race last year after leading most of the first 2 miles. Maxwell also ran well at the state meet, finishing 5th in 15:45, just 8 seconds behind Milechman. He continued his fine running this past track season finishing 8th in the ultra competitive NCS MOC final in the 3200m. running 9:27.13.

The favorite on the girls side is no stranger to success in this division. The Piedmont girls have finished in the top 4 every year since 2001 including titles in '01, '03 and '06. They return their top 5 runners and 6 out of their top 7 from last year's 2nd place team. They have two top 10 finishers from last year (Nicole Peterson and Jamie Kent) that will definitely put them in the hunt. Their main competition will be the two time defending champions, St. Mary's Berkeley, who also finished second at the state meet the past two years. They return two of the best runners in this division in Taylor Lawson and Alex Choy but will need to fill the holes left by their talented departing seniors.

The rest of the contending teams will include Moreau Catholic which returns it's top 3 runners, including number one runner Anika Adeni (4th placer last year at NCS MOC in 18:55). Tamalpais has a nice group of sophomores as well as their #2 runner from last season, state meet qualifier Monica Milstein. Sir Francis Drake will be a factor on the girls side as well as they returns their top 7 runners and veteran coach Bill Taylor is no stranger to success.

The favorite to win the girls' title will be Marin Catholic's Theresa Devine. She is the defending champion here as she won last year in 18:14. She finished 5th at last year's state meet in a very competitive race as the 2nd through 6th place runners were seperated by 5 seconds. Devine also ran track for the first time last year putting the soccer ball aside to focus on her running. Her competition will come from the two St. Mary's runners, Taylor Lawson and Alex Choy, Anika Adeni of Moreau Catholic, Nochelle Ozard of Fortuna as well as the two Piedmont runners, Nicole Peterson and Jamie Kent.

Division IV Boys (Top 3 Advance to state)
1) St. Mary's Berkeley-Looking for 3rd title in last 4 years.
2) Piedmont-5 out of top 7 back including top 2.
3) San Rafael-Finished here last year.
4) Tamalpais-Defending champions need young runners to step up.
5) Sir Francis Drake-Bill Taylor's 27th year at the helm of the boys.
On the bubble: Arcata, El Molino, Moreau Catholic

Top 5 returning individuals, (place) & 2008 NCS meet time:
Dan Milechman (1) Tamalpais 15:18
Dan Maxwell (2) St. Mary's Berkeley 15:55
Trevor Ehlenbach (5) San Rafael 16:14
John Whitman (6) El Molino 16:14
Brian King (8) Cardinal Newman 16:22

Division IV Girls (Top 3 Advance to state)
1) Piedmont-6 out of 7 are back after 2nd place finish last year.
2) St. Mary's Berkeley-Two time defending champions.
3) Moreau Catholic-MC in first year of post Phil Wilder era.
4) Tamalpais-Milstein will lead the way.
5) Sir Francis Drake-Sleeper that could challenge state meet contenders.
One the bubble: Arcata, Terra Linda

Top 5 returning individuals, (place) & 2008 NCS meet time:
Theresa Devine (1) Marin Catholic 18:14
Taylor Lawson (2) St. Mary's Berkeley 18:51
Anika Adeni (4) Moreau Catholic 18:55
Alex Choy (6) St. Mary's Berkeley 19:10
Nochella Ozard (8) Fortuna 19:21

Let me know your thoughts. Did I miss anybody? Who is looking good this summer? Any freshmen that will have an impact in this division? Norcal rankings will be up next.

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