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Friday, October 26, 2007

Norcal Rankings #6


Boys .....................................................Girls
1) Petaluma NCS.....................................1) Carondelet NCS
2)
Woodcreek SJS...................................2) Carlmont CCS
3)
Skyline OAK......................................3) Davis Sr. SJS
4) Jesuit SJS..........................................4) Campolindo NCS
5)
Aptos CCS..........................................5) Ponderosa SJS
6)
Amador Valley NCS............................6) Castro Valley NCS
7)
Willow Glen CCS................................7) Gunn CCS
8)
De La Salle NCS.................................8) Mt. View CCS
9)
Del Campo SJS...................................9) St. Ignatius CCS
10)
Monte Vista NCS..............................10) St. Francis, Sacramento SJS
Honorable Mention (10 teams in alphabetical order)
Acalanes NCS.........................................
Aptos CCS
Bellarmine CCS.......................................College Park NCS
Carlmont CCS..........................................Del Oro SJS
Davis Sr. SJS...........................................Los Gatos CCS
Deer Valley NCS.......................................Maria Carrillo NCS
Grace Davis SJS.......................................Mt. Shasta NS
Los Gatos CCS.........................................Oak Ridge SJS
Mt. View CCS...........................................Placer SJS
Oak Ridge SJS......................................... St. Mary's NCS
Sheldon SJS.............................................Woodcreek SJS

Boys' Individuals
1) German Fernandez (12) Riverbank SJS

2)
James Tracy (12) Del Campo SJS
3) James Attarian (12) Dublin NCS
4) Mohammed Abdalla (12) Willow Glen CCS
5)
Diego Estrada (12) Alisal CCS
6) Garrett Seawell (11) Woodcreek SJS
7) Nate Beach (12) Acalanes NCS
8)
Philip MacQuitty (10) Palo Alto CCS
9) Tyre Johnson (11) Palma CCS
10)
Matt Duffy (12) St. Mary's NCS
On the rise:
Brad Surh (12) Carlmont CCS
Jack Leng (12) Castro Valley NCS
Kenny Durell (12) Davis SJS

Girls' Individual
1)
Laurynne Chetelat (12) Davis Sr. SJS
2)
Sarah Sumpter (12) Healdsburg NCS
3)
Jacque Taylor (10) Casa Grande NCS
4) Nicole Hood (10) Carondelet NCS
5)
Deborah Maier (12) Ponderosa SJS
6)
Diana George (11) Livermore NCS
7) Katy Daly (11) St. Ignatius CCS
8) Rachel Hinds (9) St. Ignatius CCS
9) Stephanie Barnett (11) Leland CCS
10) Justine Fedronic (11) Carlmont CCS
On the rise:
Hayley Pascale (11) Carlmont CCS
Jackie Evans (9) Gunn CCS
Jennifer Bergman (11) Valley Christian, SJ CCS

Feel free to comment on any omissions or the placing of any of the above teams/individuals.

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

Albert: great blog. I don't agree with Mountain View Boys (now ranked #9 D2 team) being left off your top ten NorCal list after their performance at Mt Sac. Also, Garrett Rowe ran faster at MSAC than two seniors you have listed, Brad Surh and Kenny Durell and he's only a soph. His 15:24 at MSAC converts to roughly 15:06 at Crystal and he ran the second half of the race by himself in a 31 sec win--jogged in the last 400M.

Albert Caruana said...

Thanks for the compliment.

I believe Mt. View will get a chance to move up the list in the next 3 weeks. The difference between the top 10 ranked teams and the rest of the teams is not much. However, being ranked in Division II in state does not automatically put you in the top 10.

Take for example Monte Vista. Unranked in the state Division I rankings and number 10 on my list. This is what they ran at Mt. SAC.
1) 16:03
2) 16:04
3) 16:15
4) 16:23
5) 16:25
6) 16:44
7) 17:03

Here are Mt. View's times.
1) 15:24
2) 15:58
3) 16:33
4) 16:51
5) 17:14
6) 17:35
7) 18:03

Believe me, it's not a knock on Mt. View not to be in the top 10 at this point.

I am curious as to how you came up with Garrett Rowe's projected time at Crystal to be 15:06 from his Mt. SAC time of 15:24.

Doing some quick calculations, I came up with a 15:23 for his equivalent time at Crystal Springs. If he cruised in as the winner then you are right in that he will run faster than that at CS.

Runninruben said...

Girls Top 10

I thought Crystal Esparza deserved an at least "up and coming" after her 18:07 performance at Mt. SAC.

Not sure what that converts to at the Crystal Springs course everyone is talking about.

BTW - Great website

Anonymous said...

Albert, You're probably right on the team rankings. There's alot of teams closely bunched. CCS and the other sections will be exciting.

Regarding course time conversions between Crystal & MSAC, I saw an estimate somewhere (dyestat?) that MSAC is about 18-20 sec slower. Charlie Rettner's converter on the Lynbrook site uses 15 sec. While the courses are an inconsequential 17 yards different, MSAC's hills are FAR sharper than Crystal's. MSAC hills starting around 1.5m bring runners to a virtual walk they're so steep. Footing's comparable, MSAC's much "turnier".

I think Rettner's conversion is a little low and that 18-20 sec is about right. Just my 2 cents after observing both courses and talking to coaches and runners.

Regarding Garrett Rowe, I saw his race and he did cruise the last 400M. He took off from a group of 4-5 guys at 1.5m and built up a huge lead over the next mile. He looked around, smiled, even waived at his friends the last Q mile.

It would have been interesting to see Rowe in Parker Stinson's race or another seeded heat with people to chase. Rowe was 13 sec faster than #6 Nate Beach, who had people to run with and was faster than Durell & Surh who also had competition in front and behind. These guys ran in seeded races earlier in the day when it was 15-20 degrees cooler. Running a race like that as a 15 y.o. soph is impressive.

I believe Rowe's easily top ten on your list. For the record, there is no way MacQuitty is #8 either. Both these sophs are easily top 10 and MacQuitty is easily top 5 in my opinion. They will be 1-2 on your list next year.

Albert Caruana said...

When doing the rankings, I try not to project for the future. I am sure there are runners and teams that are not even listed at all the could belong in the top 10. For example, Jefferson's Gambileg Bor, has raced very little but come league time, he will show what he has when he races Brad Surh in the PAL final.

I believe Rettner's conversion tool is more accurate from Crystal Springs to Woodward since those courses have not changed. Mt. SAC is about 18-20 seconds faster than Woodward so that is where I came up with 15:23 for Garrett.

I will have new rankings next week after the many league finals.

I appreciate the input and comments. I look forward to watching Garrett and Philip facing off next week. Should be a great race.

Anonymous said...

thanks, albert. love the blog

Anonymous said...

Deer Valley vs. Monte Vista input?

Albert Caruana said...

Peter Brewer posted this earlier and I would have to agree with him.

2. Monte Vista -- This is not so much that they are that close right now to Amador, but that they are perhaps a half-notch up on Deer Valley. The Mustangs ran very well at Mt. SAC and Kanzaria has been improving each week. Their pack is also a close one.

3. Deer Valley has been running excellently after opening eyes with a narrow dual meet loss to DLS. Matt Rin has the front duties for yet another tight team pack.

Anonymous said...

when are NCS rankings coming out? as far as monte vista and deer valley match up, anything can happen. it all comes down to who shows up on November 17. maybe dv will surprise like every other year.

Connor Donley of MV. said...

Hmm... I like it.

Albert Caruana said...

I will try to get to the NCS rankings sometime this weekend or early next week.

As for Monte Vista and Deer Valley, I wouldn't be shocked if DV defeated MV.

That's why they run the races.

Anonymous said...

I would venture to say that Mr. Caruana takes into consideration but doesn't put that much weight on one particular race (i.e. Mt. SAC) to determine whether a particular athlete or team moves up or down in his rankings from one week to the next! It is a compilation of their performances over the course of the season. As an example, Brad Surh who as I understand it, started his XC late due to the extended track season, ran a 15:52 at Stanford (Rowe=16:10). Surh's 5K Clovis time a week later was 15:40. Just this week, Surh ran a 15:23 in less than ideal conditions at Crystal. Just a little perspective on not getting too hung upon on one race or rankings for that matter!!! Mr. Caruana does a great job looking at the "overall" picture.

Anonymous said...

Didn't see Sac races guess Rowe ran 33 sec faster than Suhr there? One race, but very big one compared to small meets at CS so far. Rowe ran 15:28 at CS about 3 weeks ago and Suhr ran 15:34 at about same time. Stanford is big but long time ago. spring track irrelevant.Rowe has better second half season tahn Suhr. agree with Vanzant that rowe ranked 4 guys ahead of suhr. like this wesite also but rankings need tweaking. mcquitty definitely top 5

thx

Anonymous said...

why is petaluma #1? what about will c. wood? they have been working hard this year

Anonymous said...

Becuase at DLS/CHS Nike, Petaluma ran a team time 23 minutes faster than Will C. Wood.

Petaluma- 1:21:05
Will C. Wood- 1:44:5

Anonymous said...

Since it was mentioned earlier, I would be curious to know if starting XC training later than other athletes due to extended track seasons may or may not be "relevant." Coaches, Mr. Caruana...your thoughts?

Anonymous said...

maybe you should consider whether a kid took summer school classes? probably detracts from fall cross country performance as much as running a long track season

Albert Caruana said...

There are many factors that go into ranking teams and individuals. I try to keep the whole season in mind (as someone mentioned) as opposed to just looking at one race.

There is no question that Garrett Rowe is very talented and will do very well in the races ahead of him. Like I said earlier, now that we have some of these runners facing each other, rankings become pretty clear.

I do agree that Philip MacQuitty is better than the 8th best runner but based on the races he has run this year, how do you move him ahead of the runners 1 through 7?

The late track season for Brad Surh just meant that he joined the cross country racing scene just a little later than most. I don't think the late start will make any difference now that we are into the league championships followed by section and state etc. Just my 2 cents on that one.

Anonymous said...

Could one then say that these athletes are still in the "first half" of their XC seasons as far as training and competition? Several XC runners' track seasons extend well into July, whioh isn't "spring track."

Albert Caruana said...

I don't think so. I think by now, everybody is humming along and ready to roll.

The serious runners train all year round and their break is usually from racing not running itself.

pcb@ifn.net said...

Albert:

The NCS rankings are yearning for an update, even though there might not be much in the way of change or shifting in the order of schools.

Peter Brewer

Peter Brewer said...

Albert:

The NCS rankings are yearning for an update. Your loyal audience awaits your utterances.

Peter Brewer

Albert Caruana said...

No problem Peter.

There have been some slight changes but I could get them out by tomorrow evening.

Anonymous said...

appreciate efforts. suggestion to make individual rankings better is to expand on the rise list, like expanded team list. then don't have to leave off runners like row (los altos) and hunt (aptos) who are now running better than proven good runners (suhr) or others mentioned. more names mentioned means more interest in list and less inequity. maybe also recognize some good frosh/sophs?

Albert Caruana said...

Fair enough. I will have five runners in addition to the top 10 in the next rankings following all the league finals.

Anonymous said...

Hi Albert,

now that most of the leagues have been run, are you going to do rankings again? Thanks!

Albert Caruana said...

I am going to wait until all the leagues are done this coming week. While the CCS and SJS leagues (I believe) are now complete, many of the leagues in NCS (as well as Oakland and San Francisco) are still competing. I think it's only fair to give those teams a chance to compete at their league final before I put up my latest rankings.